FIRE WEATHER 10/1/19

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
ALL UNITS From:
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Date: 10/1/19

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:133

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 2 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
=======================================================================
SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
A low pressure trough and onshore flow will continue to bring moderately high humidity today, along with brisk onshore winds in pockets of the mountain passes and adjacent deserts. The trough will lift away from the area tonight and Wednesday, bringing offshore flow and pockets of offshore winds in foothills and below mountain passes. Critical fire weather conditions are possible for a couple hours in these isolated pockets late Wednesday morning. Offshore flow will relax Wednesday afternoon. Fair weather with a warming trend and light winds are forecast Friday through Monday.

One last cool day expected with highs remaining in the 50s in the mountains to the 70s in the valleys. Wednesday and again over the weekend, the valleys will be back in the mid to upper 80s.

· North winds of 20-30 mph in Santa Barbara County and the I-5 Corridor this morning.

· Minimum RH dropping into the teens each afternoon for 6-8 hours except the highest elevations and locations right along the coast. Good recovery at night over most areas due to clear skies, light winds and lengthening nighttime hours.

· No strong offshore winds or prolonged hot temperatures expected through the first full week of October.

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
One more day of afternoon breezy conditions expected today before this latest system exits and winds become more benign. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected mainly for eastern Mohave County Arizona this afternoon as wind fields could eclipse the 20+ mph sustained threshold from around noon to 3 or 4 o clock this afternoon. Gusts to 30-35 mph possible as well. Min RH values should fall to below the 15% critical threshold as well. However, fuels in this area are indicated as not critical by the GB GACC so no RFW issuance will be warranted today.

After today, wind fields should subside substantially and keep fire weather concerns low with respect to wind, however no wetting rains in the forecast through the next ten days will continue to result in drying of fuels through the foreseeable future.

FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA

Inland Empire
NONE NONE

San Bernardino County Mountains
NONE NONE

High Desert Including Apple and Lucerne Valleys NONE NONE

San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning NONE NONE

Flash Flood Codes: GREEN: NONE YELLOW: LOW ORANGE: MODERATE RED: HIGH

SPECIAL NOTES:

National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
Predictive Services
National Interagency Fire Center
Issued: October 1, 2019
Next Issuance: November 1, 2019
Outlook Period–October, November, and December 2019 through January 2020
Executive Summary

Southern California: Above Normal significant large fire potential is expected in the middle elevations and East Wind-prone areas during the outlook period. Other locations can expect Normal significant large fire potential.
The weather patterns during the past month continued the cycle of 3-4 day fluctuations between sunny, warm weather and relatively cool weather. The one constant has been the exceptionally dry weather. While wetting rains occurred over Northern California during the first few days of September, most of the significant precipitation remained outside the district. Only light rain was experienced in the central Sierras, which resulted the summer monsoon closing out on a dry note.
Dead fuel moisture continued to lag far behind seasonal averages in September due to the lack of rain and strong drying conditions seen most days. However, live fuel moisture (LFM), which had acted to help thwart large fire growth during the summer, has seen dropped substantially from levels seen most of the year. At the time of this writing, live fuels are close to critically dry levels (as defined by 60%, or lower, LFM). This represents a steep drop in moisture levels from readings seen just 30 days ago. LFM remains uniformly low across inland areas and values have rapidly closed on seasonal averages. Therefore, both live and dead fuels can be expected to burn readily during hot or windy conditions.
The sea surface temperature profile over the Pacific has been one supportive of strong ridging over the Eastern Pacific. This has been how the atmosphere has responded, indeed, but a very strong jet over the Gulf of Alaska has been a driver of an active weather pattern over the Pacific Northwest. The ridge and the jet stream have been battling for supremacy for much of the fall, which helped suppress the monsoon far east of the district. The jet stream shows few signs of weakening and a high frequency of troughs is expected to affect the West Coast this fall. This will eventually lead to wetting rains developing from north to south with the onset of wetting rains now expected to occur in October and November – i.e. pretty much right on schedule. The dry fuel conditions should abate in a similar fashion, but it may be December before Southern CA sees enough precipitation reduce large fire potential. The number of offshore wind events is still tracking to be close to seasonal normal. Look for resource demand to remain above average the next few weeks before tailing off by the winter holiday season.

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
Large fire potential will remain low during the first 7-10 days of this month due to a lack of wind or prolonged heatwaves. But sunny skies and seasonally low RH will result in good drying conditions each afternoon. Dead fuel moisture will drop back to levels seen prior to the cooler and more humid weather over the weekend. These fuels will be highly receptive to ignition during peak heating hours. However, burn periods will remain short and confined to the afternoon, in general. Live fuel moisture is close to, or just above critical levels as is typically the case in early October. These fuels will also carry fire during daylight hours. There may be an increase in IA over the next few days as fuels dry back out, but a lack of wind and strong nighttime inversions should keep most incidents from extending past 1 burn period.

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING
NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to
significant fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

Zones Oct. 1 Oct. 2 Oct. 3 Oct. 3 Oct. 4 Oct. 5
Zone 1:
LA-Ventura NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 2:
Orange-Inland Empire NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 3:
San Diego NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 4:
Santa Barbara NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE

————————————————————————————–
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..69 to 75. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northwest 6 to 11 mph. Gusts to 25 mph in the morning.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..42 to 48. 24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.
Max humidity……..35 to 45 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 15 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west around 6 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..76 to 81. 24 HR TREND……Up 7 degrees.
Min humidity……..5 to 10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 57. West wind around 5 mph becoming north in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 41. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 65. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 54. North northwest wind around 10 mph becoming southwest in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 43. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming north in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 62. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the morning.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 48. South wind around 5 mph becoming northeast in the evening.

*PHELAN:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 65. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the morning.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 73. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the evening.

TRONA (INDIAN WELLS) (CAZ298):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..69-74. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..10-18 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 1-3 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 3-8 mph in the early morning shifting to the south 3-7 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….6700 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northwest around 5 mph in the morning shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..46-51. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-5 degrees.
Max Humidity……..27-37 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 7-13 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..74-79. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-8 degrees.
Min Humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-4 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-8 mph in the early morning shifting to the northeast 4-8 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….6400 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 10 mph in the morning shifting to the east in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….78-83. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….8-12 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….West wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 15 to 25 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….44-49. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….25-30 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 11 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Northwest wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….83-88. 24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….6-9 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….South 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

*BAKER:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 79. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 51. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 86. North wind 7 to 9 mph.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 55. Light northeast wind.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS (CAZ226):
TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….69-74. 7000 feet…….53-58. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….10-13 percent. 7000 feet…….15-25 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds around 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest around 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….36-41. 7000 feet…….15-20. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….34-39 percent. 7000 feet…….45-50 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Upper slopes….North winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East around 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….74-79. 7000 feet…….59-64. 24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….9-11 percent. 7000 feet…….12-22 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….South up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ299):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..67-72. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..22-32 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-8 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 3-11 mph.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….6500 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..West 5 to 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..42-47. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-4 degrees.
Max Humidity……..40-50 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 10-20 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 3-12 mph in the early evening shifting to the northwest 3-9 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..74-79. 24 HR Trend……Up 4-10 degrees.
Min Humidity……..9-19 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-9 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 3-8 mph in the early morning increasing to 6-11 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Very good.
Mixing height…….7600 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast around 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..70 to 77. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Min humidity……..25 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 2 to 5 mph becoming west 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..45 to 55. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Max humidity……..70 to 80 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 9 mph becoming north 6 to 11 mph after midnight. Gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..81 to 89. 24 HR TREND……Up 12 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 15 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 6 to 16 mph becoming east 6 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 72. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Light and variable wind becoming north 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 84. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 30 mph becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. West wind around 5 mph becoming northeast in the evening.

*CHINO HILLS:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 73. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 86. East wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

*COLTON:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 55. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 88. Light north wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..51 to 61 above 6000 feet to 66 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 4 degrees.
Min humidity….15 to 20 percent on desert slopes to 20 to 30 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds west 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds west 6 to 9 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the morning.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..34 to 43 above 6000 feet to 40 to 49 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Max humidity…25 to 30 percent on desert slopes to 65 to 75 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND….Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…… SLOPES…….Winds west 6 to 9 mph becoming northeast 6 to 12 mph after midnight. Gusts to 25 mph.
RIDGETOP………Variable 2 to 4 mph becoming east around 6 mph after midnight.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..59 to 69 above 6000 feet to 66 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 14 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds east 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds east 6 to 8 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 58. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 69. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 59. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 34. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 64. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

BANNING PASS (CAZ265):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..81 to 86. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming east 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..55 to 62. 24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.
Max humidity……..25 to 35 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..87 to 92. 24 HR TREND……Up 6 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ230):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..68-80. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..11-19 pct. 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 20 to 30 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather…………………Clear.
* Min Temperature……………..46-56. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Max Humidity………………..22-31 pct. 24 hr trend………………11 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………West 15 to 25 mph in the evening becoming light and variable after midnight.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..71-84. 24 hr trend………………4 degrees warmer.
* Min Humidity………………..8-13 pct. 24 hr trend………………4 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming northeast in the afternoon.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….84-89. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….4-12 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….8100 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds becoming south around 10 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation………Very good.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….52-57. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….22-27 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Southwest wind up to 10 mph in the evening becoming downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….West 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….87-92. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….4-10 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….South up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….6400 ft agl. Transport winds…..North around 10 knots.
* Ventilation………Good.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER (NVZ465):
TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….76-81. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….8-11 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….7100 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds becoming south around 10 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation………Good.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: 4000 feet…….43-48. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: 4000 feet…….23-28 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….79-84. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….7-10 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest up to 10 mph increasing to south around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….5700 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Fair.

*La Jolla CA
Tuesday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. West wind around 5 mph becoming northeast after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 73. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

*Poway CA
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 75. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 54. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 84. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 31. South wind 3 to 8 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 66. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 35. Southeast wind around 7 mph.

*************************** L.A COUNTY ********************************
…ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY DUE TO BREEZY OFFSHORE CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITIES…
LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ548):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..71-77. 24 hr trend……Up 3.
Min humidity……..35-45 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 5.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..51-57.
Max humidity……..65-85 percent.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in the evening becoming variable 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..80-87.
Min humidity……..8-15 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph late afternoon becoming variable 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ254):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..65-73 low elevations to 55-63 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Up 3.
Min humidity……..25-40 percent except 15-25 percent higher peaks and warmer valleys. 24 hr trend……Down 4.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…North to northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming west 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….North to northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming west 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..45-52 low elevations to 36-43 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..30-50 percent except 55-70 percent colder valleys.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening becoming north. Strongest through the I-5 Corridor.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northwest 6-12 mph in the evening becoming northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph late.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..72-81 low elevations to 62-70 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..8-15 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph becoming upslope 6-12 mph late in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph becoming upslope 6-12 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..63-73. 24 hr trend……Little change.
Min humidity……..10-20 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 6.
20-foot winds…….West to northwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming 8-15 mph with gusts 25 mph.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..35-44 except 48-53 in the hills.
Max humidity……..40-55 percent except 25-35 percent in the hills.
20-foot winds…….West 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening becoming northeast late.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..71-81.
Min humidity……..8-12 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 10-20 mph with local gusts to 30 mph early becoming 6-12 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

============================================================
THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
2001: Thunderstorms developed in mountains and inland valleys each day starting on 9/30 and ending on this day. Flooding was reported in Beaumont. One was killed by lightning at Cuyamaca Rancho State Park.

1980: It was 109° in Riverside and 105° in Ramona, each the highest temperature on record for October. It was 103° in Alpine and 93° in Idyllwild, each tying the highest temperature on record for October. This also occurred in Idyllwild on 10/12/1950 and in Alpine on several other October dates.

1971: Caribbean Sea Hurricane Irene crossed Nicaragua and reformed in the eastern Pacific as Hurricane Olivia. Olivia recurved to the northeast and made landfall in central Baja California with rainfall of up to one inch in the southern deserts on 9/30 and on this day. This occurred during the La Niña of 1970-71.

1946: A tropical storm moved northward into northern Baja California and dissipated with rainfall of up to four inches in the mountains on 9/30 and exceeding four inches in the mountains on this day. This occurred during the El Niño of 1946-47.

1932: Heavy rains starting on 9/28 and ending on this day came from a dying tropical cyclone. It brought flooding to parts of the mountains and deserts of Southern California. 4.38 inches of rain fell at Tehachapi in seven hours on 9/30, and the four day storm total was 7.10 inches. The resulting flash flooding in Tehachapi Creek caused widespread damage. Multiple trains were caught in the flooding, including a Santa Fe steam engine that was buried under ten feet of mud and sand. A gas station, café and several cabins were destroyed by a wall of water when a culvert clogged with debris suddenly gave way. At least 15 people perished in floods and monetary damages exceeded $1 million dollars in 1932 dollars. An exact death toll is unknown, as many people were “riding the rails” during the Great Depression.

==================================================================
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Narda, located near the coast of northwestern mainland
Mexico.

An area of disturbed weather is expected to form over the western
portion of the eastern North Pacific basin during the next few
days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally
conducive, and any development of this system is expected to be
slow to occur while the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Narda
Intermediate Advisory Number 12A…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
600 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019

Corrected classification of Narda in discussion and outlook section

…NARDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
…HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES…

SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.1N 110.1W
ABOUT 110 MI…180 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI…130 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm warning for the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 110.1 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). Narda is forecast to continue moving along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico this morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)with higher gusts. The wind circulation of Narda will likely dissipate later today, however moisture associated with Narda’s remnants will continue to spread northward over northwestern Mexico
and the southwestern U.S. during the next couple of days. This moisture could cause heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Gusty conditions are possible along the coast this morning.
These winds should diminish through the day.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through today:

Sinaloa…Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches.

Chihuahua…1 to 3 inches.

Sonora…1 to 2 inches.

Heavy rain that fell in Sinaloa Monday night may cause flooding today. Otherwise, new rainfall may cause isolated flash flooding over northwest Mexico.

Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office.

======================================================================
CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0800 Hrs. TEMP: 450 RH: 78% WIND: CALM
0.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
=================================================================
FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 1)
Thirty-one large fires have burned more than 261,000 acres in nine states. Five new large fires were reported in Mississippi and firefighters contained them all yesterday. One new large fires was reported in Colorado.

Daily statistics 10/1/19
Number of new large fires or emergency response 6 States currently reporting large fires:
Number of active large fires
Total does not include individual fires within complexes. 31 Alabama (3)
Alaska (2)
Arizona (6)
California (3)
Colorado (3)
Idaho (8)
Montana (4)
Oregon (1)
Washington (1)
Acres from active fires 261,365
Fires contained 6
Year-to-date statistics
2019 (1/1/19 – 10/1/19) Fires: 40,056 Acres: 4,367,481
2018 (1/1/18 – 10/1/18) Fires: 49,432 Acres: 7,755,181
2017 (1/1/17 – 10/1/17) Fires: 49,563 Acres: 8,422,251
2016 (1/1/16 – 10/1/16) Fires: 45,340 Acres: 4,890,112
2015 (1/1/15 -10/1/15) Fires: 50,030 Acres: 9,084,655
2014 (1/1/14 – 10/1/14) Fires: 41,205 Acres: 3,059,752
2013 (1/1/13 – 10/1/13) Fires: 38,956 Acres: 4,094,598
2012 (1/1/12 – 10/1/12) Fires: 48,258 Acres: 8,802,721
2011 (1/1/11 – 10/1/11) Fires: 60,724 Acres: 7,745,291
2010 (1/1/10 – 10/1/10) Fires: 57,142 Acres: 2,972,240
2009 (1/1/09 – 10/1/09) Fires: 70,345 Acres: 5,622,843
10-year average Year-to-Date
2009-2018 Fires: 50,948 Acres: 6,250,667

Initial attack activity: Light (143 new fires)
New large incidents: 6
Large fires contained: 6
Uncontained large fires:*** 5
Area Command teams committed: 0
NIMOs committed: 0
Type 1 IMTs committed: 0
Type 2 IMTs committed: 0

Active Incident Resource Summary
GACC Incidents Cumulative Acres Crews Engines Helicopters Total Personnel
AICC 1 167,164 1 1 0 28
NWCC 1 354 2 0 0 50
ONCC 3 61,202 4 12 1 331
OSCC 4 10,817 2 5 1 111
NRCC 3 3,470 0 1 0 16
GBCC 1 397 0 10 1 52
SWCC 6 30,749 1 6 1 69
RMCC 3 2,485 9 8 2 246
EACC 0 0 0 0 0 0
SACC 14 1,714 2 20 1 143
Total 36 278,352 21 63 7 1,046

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)

Southern California Area (PL 2 )
Federal
Schaeffer, Vegetation Fire, Tulare County, Update
20 miles north of Kernville
Federal DPA, FRA Sequoia National Forest
• 290 acres (+60 acres), grass and brush, 50% contained (+15% containment)
• Incident submitting 1 ICS-209 daily at 1800
Taboose, Vegetation Fire, Inyo County, Update
9 miles south of Big Pine
Federal/State DPA, FRA/SRA, Inyo National Forest
• 10,296 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 75% contained (+0% containment)
• Area closures remain in effect
• Incident submitting 1 ICS -209 weekly on Thursdays at 1800
Northern California Area (PL 2 )

CA-SHF South Fire: 5,330 acres, 62% contained. Fire behavior remained minimal due to to high humidity and moisture over the fire area from previous days. The decrease in acres is due to better mapping. Road and trail closures remain in effect for the fire area. There is a threat to prehistoric trails, historic sites, and endangered Salmon. Fire may impact a Class 1 Airshed within the Yolla Bolla Wilderness.

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