FIRE WEATHER 10/14/19

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
ALL UNITS From:
EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
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Date: 10/14/19

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:146

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 2 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
==============================================================================
SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
Onshore flow will spread cooling and higher coastal humidity inland today. Mostly weak offshore flow for Tuesday into Wednesday will bring periods of gusty east winds and lower humidity for the inland valleys onto the coastal slopes of the mountains with elevated fire weather conditions. Slow cooling and higher coastal humidity will spread inland from the coast to the mountains for Wednesday through Saturday. Stronger offshore flow is possible for Sunday and Monday with a much drier air mass, but with continuing differences on the timing and strength of the gusty northeast winds. Critical fire weather condition could develop and Sunday and continue into Monday, especially for the mountains and valleys.

High temperatures dropping back into the 60s in the mountains to the 70s at lower elevations today. Temperatures will warm 2-5 degrees over Southern CA each day through Wed before slightly cooler weather returns to close out the workweek.

· North winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will be possible in Santa Barbara County and the I-5 Corridor Thursday and Friday nights.

· West winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the Kern County Mountains, Antelope Valley and Banning Pass late this week.

· Temperatures likely returning to the 80s this weekend across Southern CA. Minimum RH will drop back to the single digits over a wide area of Southern CA by Sunday.

· Northeasterly offshore winds may begin Sunday afternoon and evening, becoming stronger by Monday morning. The strongest winds may be centered on next Monday, but some lighter offshore flow may linger through next Wednesday. Expect well above normal temperatures and single digit RH early next week.

Weak Offshore Flow – Mountains and Coastal Slopes
Moderate Confidence Northeast to east winds in the mountains, passes and coastal slopes Tuesday, with peak gusts to 30 mph.
Details – What: Northeast to east winds with peak gusts 20-30 mph in the mountains, passes and coastal slopes.

– Where: Mountains, passes and coastal slopes

– When: Tuesday morning and afternoon, winds diminishing in the evening

Gusty West Winds – Mountains and Deserts
Moderate Confidence Gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts Thursday and Friday, with peak gusts to 40 mph.
Details – What: Gusty west winds with peak gusts 30-40 mph.

– Where: Mountains and deserts

– When: Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning.

Possible Santa Ana Event – Oct 20-22
Low Confidence Santa Ana conditions
Details – What: Strong winds and low relative humidity possible Oct 20-22

– Where: Mountains and valleys

– When: Sunday October 20th through at least Tuesday October 22nd

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
Dry and seasonable weather can be expected through the week followed by a cooling trend late in the weekend. Breezy conditions will develop Thursday then again Saturday night and Sunday as fast moving troughs brush the region.

SPECIAL NOTES:
BI-MONTHLY FUELS DISCUSSION
For Southern and Central California
Updated: Tuesday, Oct. 8th, 2019
General Discussion:
The active and progressive weather pattern which occurred through much of September continued into the first few days of October. Unusually deep troughs entered the Pacific Northwest, some of which brought wetting rains to the northern part of the state. At the same time, a cutoff low over Baja injected the Southwest with widespread heavy rain. The bulk of this precipitation remained over Arizona, but a few places in the eastern Mojave Desert received some rainfall. Aside from these two areas, the rest of the state continued to see typical late fall drying conditions.

The lack of recent rainfall along with very little summer monsoonal rainfall kept fuels uniformly dry across the entire Geographic Region. There is very little variation between fuel conditions along the coast, in the valleys and into the Sierras. Most sites continue to indicate live fuel moisture is near critical levels which is typical for this time of year. But dead fuels are drier than normal with many Predictive Service Areas reporting moisture readings in the 90-95 percentile in terms of fuel dryness. A deep marine layer occurring earlier this month allowed fine fuels to fluctuate significantly in terms of moisture readings, but the overall pattern is one homogeneity across fuels of different types and diameters.

The Climate Prediction Center is predicting cooler than normal temperatures during the next 8-14 day period at the time of this writing, but most model solutions keep the bulk of the trough activity to the north and east of the district. An offshore wind event is expected to occur on Oct 9-12th. Very low humidity and gusty winds will help dry fuels further and areas which had seen live fuel moisture remain a tick or two above critical levels should seem them dip below the 60% level. A recent spike in wildfire activity in recent days is a clear indication that fuels have crossed a threshold and are now readily accepting flame and will carry fire. Until seasonal rains arrive, both live and dead fuels will be primed for ignition with rapid, or even extreme, rates of spread during warm and dry weather.

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
Large fire potential will remain low over most areas this week. A return of more humid weather should keep starts fewer in numbers today, but some increase in IA will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday due to sunny and warmer weather. Toward the end of the workweek, large fire potential will become elevated across the south coast of Santa Barbara County and the I-5 Corridor due to breezy conditions and poor nighttime RH recovery. The main period of elevated fire weather potential will likely be Sunday through the middle of the week as warm, dry and windy weather returns. Although wind speeds may end up being a notch lower than during the previous offshore wind event, fuels will be even more receptive to ignition due to the extreme drying conditions that occurred in recent days. High risk days will likely be issued for early next week if weather models continue to show good consensus. A high amount of resource demand will be likely next week

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING
NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to
significant fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

Zones Oct. 14 Oct. 15 Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19
Zone 1:
LA-Ventura NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 2:
Orange-Inland Empire NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 3:
San Diego NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 4:
Santa Barbara NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE

————————————————————————————–
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..74 to 81. 24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northwest around 6 mph becoming northeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

MONDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..42 to 52. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Max humidity……..25 to 35 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 20 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east around 6 mph in the evening becoming variable 2 to 4 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..79 to 85. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
Columbus Day
Sunny, with a high near 63. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 68. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the evening.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
Columbus Day
Sunny, with a high near 59. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming south southwest in the morning.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 40. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 46.

*PHELAN:
Columbus Day
Sunny, with a high near 71. West wind around 5 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 76. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 55. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

TRONA (INDIAN WELLS) (CAZ298):
COLUMBUS DAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..75-80. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..9 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-4 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-6 mph in the early morning shifting to the east 3-5 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Fair.
Mixing height…….6700 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 5 mph in the morning shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..49-54. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 degrees.
Max Humidity……..14-24 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-4 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..79-84. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-5 degrees.
Min Humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-6 mph in the early morning shifting to the east by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….5500 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 5 mph in the morning shifting to the east in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
COLUMBUS DAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….82-87. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….8-18 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 6 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 10 to 15 mph becoming east in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

MONDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….46-51. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….31-36 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….85-90. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….9-15 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Northeast wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

*BAKER:
Columbus Day
Sunny, with a high near 86. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 51. Light north northeast wind.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming north northwest around 6 mph in the morning.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Light northeast wind.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS (CAZ226):
COLUMBUS DAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….74-79. 7000 feet…….62-67. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….7-9 percent. 7000 feet…….8-17 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

MONDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….39-44. 7000 feet…….25-30. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….23-28 percent. 7000 feet…….24-29 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight.
* Upper slopes….Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….78-83. 7000 feet…….66-71. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….7-9 percent. 7000 feet…….8-16 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….South up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ299):
COLUMBUS DAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..74-79. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..9-19 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-5 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-7 mph in the early morning shifting to the northeast 3-6 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….7800 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 5 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..46-51. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 degrees.
Max Humidity……..24-34 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 6-12 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..78-83. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-5 degrees.
Min Humidity……..9-19 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-7 mph in the early morning shifting to the northeast 3-8 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Very good.
Mixing height…….7100 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast around 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
MONDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy…becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning.
Max temperature…..75 to 81. 24 HR TREND……Down 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..25 to 35 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 15 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 2 to 5 mph becoming west 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

MONDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..49 to 56. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Max humidity……..75 to 85 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 20 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 10 mph becoming north 6 to 9 mph after midnight. Gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..82 to 89. 24 HR TREND……Up 8 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 15 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
Columbus Day
Sunny, with a high near 78. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Light and variable wind becoming north 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 15 to 20 mph becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. West wind around 5 mph becoming east in the evening.

*CHINO HILLS:
Columbus Day
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 75. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 52. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

*COLTON:
Columbus Day
Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 81. Light southwest wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 55. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south in the evening.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 88. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255):
MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..57 to 67 above 6000 feet to 64 to 74 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Min humidity……..5 to 10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds north around 6 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
RIDGETOP………Variable 2 to 5 mph becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

MONDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..28 to 38 above 6000 feet to 39 to 49 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Max humidity….25 to 35 percent on desert slopes to 40 to 50 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND….Up 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds east 6 to 11 mph. Gusts to 25 mph after midnight.
RIDGETOP………Winds east 6 to 9 mph. Gusts to 20 mph after midnight.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..62 to 72 above 6000 feet to 70 to 80 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds east 6 to 13 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds east 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
Columbus Day
Sunny, with a high near 64. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Light northeast wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the evening.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 70. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
Columbus Day
Sunny, with a high near 62. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 28. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 67. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 31. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

BANNING PASS (CAZ265):
MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..85 to 90. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the morning becoming variable 3 to 6 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

MONDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..57 to 67. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Max humidity……..25 to 35 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 9 mph. Gusts to 20 mph after midnight.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..89 to 94. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ230):
MONDAY… * Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..71-83.
* 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..16-21 pct.
* 24 hr trend………………8 pct wetter.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 10 mph in the morning
becoming east in the afternoon.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 10 to 20 mph in the
morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

MONDAY NIGHT… * Sky/weather…………………Clear.
* Min Temperature……………..51-61. * 24 hr trend………………5 degrees warmer.
* Max Humidity………………..29-36 pct. * 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Light and variable in the evening becoming east 5 to 15 mph after midnight.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.

TUESDAY… * Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..74-87. * 24 hr trend………………4 degrees warmer.
* Min Humidity………………..15-21 pct. * 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northeast 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………East 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
COLUMBUS DAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….86-91. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….11-21 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 9 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….South 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….8600 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Good.

MONDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….54-59. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….37-42 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 7 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southeast up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….90-95. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….6-16 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 5 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….8000 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Good.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER (NVZ465):
COLUMBUS DAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….79-84. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….8-16 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 5 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 10 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….7800 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Fair.

MONDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: 4000 feet…….45-50. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: 4000 feet…….29-34 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 6 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….81-86. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….8-13 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southeast up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….6400 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Fair.

*La Jolla CA
Columbus Day
Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 70. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 59. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

*Poway CA
Columbus Day
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 76. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Tuesday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 82. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
Columbus Day
Sunny, with a high near 68. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 35. West southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 71. Light and variable wind.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Light and variable wind becoming southeast around 5 mph after midnight.

*************************** L.A COUNTY ********************************
…ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS DUE TO BREEZY OFFSHORE CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITIES…
LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ548):
COLUMBUS DAY… Sky/weather………Morning low clouds and fog then sunny.
Max temperature…..75-79. 24 hr trend……Little change.
Min humidity……..35-45 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 7.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..1500 ft asl. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..51-56.
Max humidity……..70-100 percent except 60-70 percent in the hills.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph early becoming variable 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..81-86.
Min humidity……..15-25 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ254):
COLUMBUS DAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..70-78 low elevations to 60-68 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Little change.
Min humidity……..10-25 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 3.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northwest to north 8-15 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northwest to north 8-15 mph.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..48-53 low elevations to 41-46 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..25-45 percent except 55-70 percent colder valleys.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northwest to north 8-15 mph in the evening becoming northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph after midnight.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northwest to north 8-15 mph in the evening becoming northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph after midnight.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..75-84 low elevations to 65-73 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..8-15 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph diminishing to 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph late.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph diminishing to 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph late.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
COLUMBUS DAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..71-80. 24 hr trend……Up 3.
Min humidity……..8-15 percent. 24 hr trend……Little change.
20-foot winds…….North 6-12 mph.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..38-46 except 47-49 in the hills.
Max humidity……..30-50 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northwest 6-12 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..76-84.
Min humidity……..6-10 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 8-15 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

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THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
2015: Unseasonable high pressure and warm ocean waters led to very warm October days and the warmest October nights on record from 10/10 through 10/15. In San Diego, five out of the six highest October minimum temperatures on record occurred. The highest minimum temperature in any October was 76° on 10/10 and again on 10/13. This is only two degrees off the highest minimum temperature for any time of year! (Only seven nights in history recorded 77 or 78°, all of which occurred during September, meaning these October nights were warmer than any night in July or August in San Diego). On 10/10 the highest minimum temperature in October was also recorded in Chula Vista (73, only three degrees off all-time highest), Oceanside Harbor (74, only two degrees off all-time highest), and El Cajon (tied 69). On 10/13 Santa Ana recorded 78°, the highest October minimum temperature on record. The top six warmest October nights on the Chula Vista record occurred this month, and the top five in El Cajon occurred this month.

1997: Santa Ana wind gusts measured 87 mph in central Orange County and contributed to a large fire.

1971: It was 97° at Palomar Mountain, the highest temperature on record for October.

1961: Hot Santa Ana winds drove the temperature to 110° in Long Beach, the hottest in the nation, 107° in San Diego (the highest on record for October), 105° in LA, and over 100° in many coastal and A gorgeous double rainbow was captured in Escondido on this day in 2009.
inland locations. It was 88° at San Nicolas Island.

1957: An early season storm brought daily record rainfall to Southern California. Over an inch fell at many mountain locations and in parts of central San Diego County. La Mesa recorded 1.08 inch.

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TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California remains broad and elongated. Although the window of opportunity for development is decreasing, a tropical depression could still form by tonight while the system moves north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph. On Monday, however, additional development is not anticipated due to cooler waters and stronger upper-level winds. Regardless of development, this system is forecast to produce heavy rainfall across the southern Baja California peninsula today and continuing into Monday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is expected over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just offshore the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

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CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0742 Hrs. TEMP: 480 RH: 65% WIND: W 5 G 11
0.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
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FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 1)

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)

Number of Fires and Acres:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2019 through October 6, 2019 4,609 40,712
January 1, 2018 through October 6, 2018 4,900 627,577
5-Year Average (same interval) 4,873 325,411
2019 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 5,657 157,981

Southern California Area (PL 2 )
Unified Command
Saddle Ridge, Vegetation Fire, Los Angeles County, Update
Saddle Ridge Rd, Sylmar
Local DPA, SRA/LRA/FRA, Los Angeles City Fire/ Los Angeles County Fire/ Angeles National Forest, Contract County
• 7,965 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 41% contained (+8% containment)
• Unified Command Los Angeles City, Los Angeles County, USFS
• Minimal fire behavior with backing, creeping, and smoldering
• Continued structure threat
• Repopulation plan ongoing
• Damage inspection is ongoing
• Federal air and ground resources assigned
Sandalwood, Vegetation Fire, Riverside County, Update
Sandalwood Dr x I10, Calimesa
Local DPA, LRA, Calimesa City (Wildland Cooperative Agreement)
• 1,011 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 77% contained (+9% containment)
• Unified command Riverside County Fire and Calimesa Fire
• Minimal fire behavior with smoldering
• Evacuations remain in place
• Repopulation plan implemented
• Damage inspection is ongoing
• Continue to improve, reinforce and secure control lines
• Federal ground resources assigned
State
Briceburg, Vegetation Fire, Mariposa County, Update
Hwy 140 x Briceburg Bridge Rd, 4 miles north of Midpines
State/Federal DPA, SRA/FRA, Madera-Mariposa-Merced Unit/Sierra National Forrest
• 5,563 acres (+0 acres), brush, 63% contained (+3% containment)
• Minimal fire behavior with smoldering
• Road and area closures still in effect
• Continued closure of Hwy 140 and the main entrance into the communities of El Portal and Yosemite National Park
• Continue to improve, reinforce and secure control lines
• Federal air and ground resources assigned
Reche, Vegetation Fire, Riverside County, Final
Reche Canyon Rd x Jordan Dr, Moreno Valley
State DPA, SRA, Riverside Unit
• 350 acres (+0 acres) , grass and brush, 100% contained (+12% containment)
Federal
Wendy, Vegetation Fire, Ventura County, Update
Potrero Rd x S Wendy Dr, Newbury Park
Federal DPA, FRA, Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area
• 93 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 80% contained (+0% containment)
• Forward spread has been stopped
• Continued mop-up and strengthening control lines
Taboose, Vegetation Fire, Inyo County, Update
9 miles south of Big Pine
Federal/State DPA, FRA/SRA, Inyo National Forest
• 10,400 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 75% contained (+0% containment)
• Area closures remain in effect
• Incident submitting 1 ICS -209 weekly on Thursdays at 1800
Northern California Area (PL 2 )

CA-NOD Horse Fire: 75 acres grass and brush, 30% contained. Crews are making good progress. Forward spread has been stopped.

CA-ENF Caples Fire: 2,885 acres timber, 35% contained. Structures are threatened. Private timberlands and major municipal watershed remain threatened. Smoke impacts to Highway 88, the Tahoe Basin and surrounding areas are possible. Road, trail and area closures remain in effect in the area.

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