FIRE WEATHER 10/15/19

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
ALL UNITS From:
EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
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Date: 10/15/19

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:147

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 2 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
=================================================================
SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
High pressure aloft and weak offshore flow will bring a warming trend into Wednesday with gusty east winds near the coastal slopes of the mountains of Riverside and San Diego Counties and lower inland humidity. This will bring elevated fire weather conditions for the inland valleys into the mountains for today and Wednesday.
Onshore flow will return for Thursday into Saturday spreading cooler and higher coastal humidity inland. Offshore flow will strengthen on Sunday into Monday, then slowly diminish on Monday night and Tuesday with the stronger gusts on Monday to around 50 mph. High pressure aloft combined with the offshore flow will bring a warming trend for Sunday through Tuesday. The Santa Ana winds combined with much lower inland humidity are expected to bring at least elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday and critical conditions for late Sunday night through Monday.

High temperatures warming into the 60s to lower 70s in the mountains to the 80s in the valleys and lower foothills. Some locations approaching 90 Wednesday. However, highs will return to the upper 50s in the mountains to the 70s in the valleys beginning Thursday.

· Local Northeast winds of 15-25 mph today in the mountains of Southern CA above 3,000 feet.

· West winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the Kern County Mountains, Antelope Valley and Banning Pass late this week.

· North winds of 20-35 mph possible in Santa Barbara County and the I-5 Corridor Thursday and Friday nights. Expect poor RH recovery in these areas.

· Northeasterly offshore winds beginning Sunday night, possibly lasting through next Wednesday. Temperatures will be well into the 80s with min RH dropping into the single digits across Southern CA by Monday.
Weak Offshore Flow – Mountains and Coastal Slopes
High
Confidence
East to northeast winds in the mountains, passes and coastal slopes
Tuesday, with peak gusts to 30 mph.
Details
– What: Northeast to east winds with peak gusts 20-30 mph. Minimum
humidity Tuesday 15-20% in the mountains and Inland Empire. Locally
elevated fire weather conditions.
– Where: Mountains, passes and coastal slopes.
– When: Peak winds Tuesday morning through late afternoon. Notably
weaker Wednesday morning.
Gusty West Winds – Mountains and Deserts
Moderate
Confidence
Gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts Thursday and
Friday, with peak gusts to 50 mph.
Details
– What: Gusty west winds with peak gusts 40-50 mph.
– Where: San Bernardino, Riverside, and San Diego County mountains
and deserts.
– When: Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, peaking overnight.
Possible Santa Ana Event – Oct 20-22
LSanta Ana winds, with potential for critical fire weather conditions.
Details
– What: Offshore winds and low humidity likely Oct 20-22, with potential
for moderate to strong winds. Elevated fire weather conditions expected
at minimum. Critical conditions possible, depending on wind strength.
– Where: Mountains and valleys
– When: Sunday October 20th through at least Tuesday October 22nd,
with strongest winds expected Monday.

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
Dry and seasonable weather can be expected the rest of the week. Breezy conditions followed by moderate cooling will occur Thursday then again Sunday as fast moving systems brush the region.

SPECIAL NOTES:
BI-MONTHLY FUELS DISCUSSION
For Southern and Central California
Updated: Tuesday, Oct. 8th, 2019
General Discussion:
The active and progressive weather pattern which occurred through much of September continued into the first few days of October. Unusually deep troughs entered the Pacific Northwest, some of which brought wetting rains to the northern part of the state. At the same time, a cutoff low over Baja injected the Southwest with widespread heavy rain. The bulk of this precipitation remained over Arizona, but a few places in the eastern Mojave Desert received some rainfall. Aside from these two areas, the rest of the state continued to see typical late fall drying conditions.

The lack of recent rainfall along with very little summer monsoonal rainfall kept fuels uniformly dry across the entire Geographic Region. There is very little variation between fuel conditions along the coast, in the valleys and into the Sierras. Most sites continue to indicate live fuel moisture is near critical levels which is typical for this time of year. But dead fuels are drier than normal with many Predictive Service Areas reporting moisture readings in the 90-95 percentile in terms of fuel dryness. A deep marine layer occurring earlier this month allowed fine fuels to fluctuate significantly in terms of moisture readings, but the overall pattern is one homogeneity across fuels of different types and diameters.

The Climate Prediction Center is predicting cooler than normal temperatures during the next 8-14 day period at the time of this writing, but most model solutions keep the bulk of the trough activity to the north and east of the district. An offshore wind event is expected to occur on Oct 9-12th. Very low humidity and gusty winds will help dry fuels further and areas which had seen live fuel moisture remain a tick or two above critical levels should seem them dip below the 60% level. A recent spike in wildfire activity in recent days is a clear indication that fuels have crossed a threshold and are now readily accepting flame and will carry fire. Until seasonal rains arrive, both live and dead fuels will be primed for ignition with rapid, or even extreme, rates of spread during warm and dry weather.

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
Large fire potential will be slightly elevated in the mountains of Southern CA today due to northeasterly winds. The strongest winds today will likely be in the Angeles and Cleveland N.F. Expect sunny, warm weather with RH dropping into the 8-12% range this afternoon for a few hours, leading to rapid rates of spread in new starts in these areas. Later this week, the focus of elevated large fire potential will be across much of Santa Barbara County due to a prolonged period of north winds with low RH recovery. New starts in the Gaviota and San Marcos Pass area would be pushed southward rapidly due to gusty winds. There will still likely be a high risk of large fires early next week due to expected offshore winds. Timing and strength of the winds is still in question, but it appears the highest threat may occur next Monday. IA and resource demand will remain moderate this week, but possibly heavy next week due to offshore winds. Dead fuel moisture is now near record low readings across most areas away from the marine layer.

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING
NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to significant fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

Zones Oct. 15 Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19 Oct. 20
Zone 1:
LA-Ventura NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 2:
Orange-Inland Empire NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 3:
San Diego NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 4:
Santa Barbara NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE

————————————————————-
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..79 to 85. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 2 to 5 mph becoming east 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..48 to 57. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Max humidity……..25 to 35 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east6 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..81 to 88. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east around 6 mph becoming south 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 68. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 50. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. South wind 5 to 15 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. South wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 67. East northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming east southeast in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

*PHELAN:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 76. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 56. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight.

TRONA (INDIAN WELLS) (CAZ298):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..79-84. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-5 degrees.
Min Humidity……..9 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-5 mph in the early morning shifting to the east 3-6 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Fair.
Mixing height…….5900 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 5 mph in the morning shifting to the east in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..51-56. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 degrees.
Max Humidity……..15-25 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 3-5 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature…..80-85. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..9-14 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 3-5 mph in the early morning shifting to the southeast 3-6 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….7600 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 5 mph in the morning shifting to the south in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….86-91. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….9-15 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Northeast wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….52-57. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….25-30 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 7 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East around 10 mph increasing to southeast 15 to 20 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….88-93. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….10-13 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….South 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

*BAKER:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 56. Light and variable wind.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS (CAZ226):
TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….79-84. 7000 feet…….66-71. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….7-9 percent. 7000 feet…….8-16 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southeast up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….43-48. 7000 feet…….27-32. 24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….24-29 percent. 7000 feet…….26-31 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….South winds around 10 mph shifting to the west up to 10 mph after midnight.
* Upper slopes….Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….South up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny then becoming partly cloudy.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….80-85. 7000 feet…….68-73. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….8-11 percent. 7000 feet…….10-16 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….South winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ299):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..78-83. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-8 degrees.
Min Humidity……..7-17 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 7 mph in the early morning increasing to 3-8 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….7100 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min Temperature…..49-54. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-4 degrees.
Max Humidity……..22-32 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature…..79-84. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..11-21 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-6 mph in the early morning shifting to the southeast by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….7600 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast around 5 mph in the morning shifting to the south in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..84 to 89. 24 HR TREND……Up 9 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 15 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 6 to 8 mph becoming west 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..52 to 61. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Max humidity……..45 to 55 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 25 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 8 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the evening.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..85 to 91. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southeast around 6 mph becoming southwest 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 86. North wind 5 to 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 61. North wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.

*CHINO HILLS:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 84. Light and variable wind becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 56. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

*COLTON:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 60. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..63 to 73 above 6000 feet to 71 to 81 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds east 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds east 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..35 to 45 above 6000 feet to 44 to 54 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Max humidity…25 to 35 percent on desert slopes to 30 to 40 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds east 6 to 10 mph. Gusts to 20 mph after midnight.
RIDGETOP………Winds southeast 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..64 to 74 above 6000 feet to 72 to 82 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)…… SLOPES……..Winds east 6 to 11 mph becoming south 6 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds south 6 to 13 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 71. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the morning.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 52. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 71. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind around 5 mph

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 67. East wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 35. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 69. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

BANNING PASS (CAZ265):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..89 to 94. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 8 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..59 to 68. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Max humidity……..30 to 40 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west around 6 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..92 to 97. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west around 6 mph becoming southeast 6 to 8 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ230):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..74-87. 24 hr trend………………4 degrees warmer.
* Min Humidity………………..15-21 pct. 24 hr trend………………4 pct wetter.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming northeast in the afternoon.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………East 10 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather…………………Clear.
* Min Temperature……………..50-61. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Max Humidity………………..30-40 pct. 24 hr trend………………3 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………East 10 to 20 mph in the evening becoming southeast 20 to 30 mph after midnight.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather…………………Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..77-90. 24 hr trend………………3 degrees warmer.
* Min Humidity………………..13-20 pct. 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southeast in the afternoon.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………South 10 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….90-95. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….6-16 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 6 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….7900 ft agl. Transport winds…..North around 10 knots.
* Ventilation………Good.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….56-61. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….24-29 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 13 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

WEDNESDAY.. Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….92-97. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….5-14 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….South 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….7100 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Good.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER (NVZ465):
TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….82-87. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….7-12 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….East up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….6000 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Fair.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: 4000 feet…….47-52. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: 4000 feet…….23-28 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 6 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East up to 10 mph increasing to south after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….84-89. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….8-12 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming southeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….South 15 to 25 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….5800 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Fair.

*La Jolla CA
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 72. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Wednesday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 61. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph.

*Poway CA
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 84. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 87. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Calm wind

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 37. West northwest wind around 6 mph becoming east southeast in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 75. Light south wind becoming south southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. South wind around 8 mph.

*************************** L.A COUNTY ********************************
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER INTERIOR AREAS WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW…
…MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ548):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy then becoming mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..82-88. 24 hr trend……Up 9.
Min humidity……..20-30 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 17.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..1000 ft asl. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..56-61.
Max humidity……..60-80 percent except 45-55 percent in the hills.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 6-12 mph early becoming variable 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy.
Max temperature…..83-89.
Min humidity……..20-30 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ254):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..77-85 low elevations to 67-75 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Up 8.
Min humidity……..8-15 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 11.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…East 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph late.
Ridges/upr slopes….East 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph late.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..56-63 low elevations to 47-54 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..15-35 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…East 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….East to southeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy.
Max temperature…..76-84 low elevations to 66-74 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..10-20 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…East 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming upvalley 6-12 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….Southeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming south 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..76-84. 24 hr trend……Up 5.
Min humidity……..8-12 percent. 24 hr trend……Little change.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming northeast 8-15 mph by the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..42-51 except 55-60 in the hills.
Max humidity……..20-40 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph in the evening becoming variable 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy.
Max temperature…..78-86.
Min humidity……..8-12 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

============================================================
THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
2018: A deep low pressure axis extending across Southern California produced strong region-wide Santa Ana winds. The strongest gust reached 82 mph in Fremont Canyon, with widespread gusts above 40-50 mph reported in valley locations. In Orange County, over 200 trees were downed and one person was killed when a tree fell onto their vehicle.

2015: Strong thunderstorms generated gusty and damaging winds estimated at least 60 mph along the western side of the Salton Sea. Winds blew down over 10 power poles several miles to the northwest of the town of Salton City. Unseasonable high pressure and warm ocean waters led to very warm October days and the warmest October nights on record from 10/10 through this day. In San Diego, five out of the six highest October minimum temperatures on record occurred. The highest minimum temperature in any October was 76° on 10/10 and again on 10/13. This is only two degrees off the highest minimum temperature for any time of year! (Only seven nights in history recorded 77 or 78°, all of which occurred during September, meaning these October nights were warmer than any night in July or August in San Diego). On 10/10 the highest minimum temperature in October was also recorded in Chula Vista (73, only three degrees off all-time highest), Oceanside Harbor (74, only two degrees off all-time highest), and El Cajon (tied 69). On 10/13 Santa Ana recorded 78°, the highest October minimum temperature on record. The top six warmest October nights on the Chula Vista record occurred this month, and the top five in El Cajon occurred this month.

1965: One man died when an offshore gale capsized his fishing boat off the coast.

1961: Hot Santa Ana winds drove temperatures skyward at the coast for a second consecutive day, reaching 104° in Santa Ana, 102° in San Bernardino, Riverside, and La Mesa, 100° in Laguna Beach, 97° in San Diego, and 93° in Newport Beach.

==================================================================
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of El Salvador is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just offshore the coast of Guatemala and Mexico. By late this week, proximity to land could inhibit further development. Heavy rainfall that is currently occurring across Nicaragua and Honduras is forecast to spread westward over El Salvador and Guatemala tonight and Tuesday, and into southern Mexico by Wednesday. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
.
======================================================================
CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0710 Hrs. TEMP: 470 RH: 36% WIND: W 3 G 8
0.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
=================================================================
FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 1)

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)
Number of Fires and Acres:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2019 through October 13, 2019 4,755 41,204
January 1, 2018 through October 13, 2018 5,011 631,733
5-Year Average (same interval) 4,992 372,066
2019 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 5,819 162,693

Southern California Area (PL 2 )

Johnson, Vegetation Fire, Riverside County, New
Ave 82 x Johnson St, Oasis, 3 miles Southwest of Mecca
Local DPA, LRA/FRA, Riverside County Fire/Torres-Martinez Reservation
Start time: 1302
• 65 acres, grass, 20% contained
• Moderate rate of spread
• 83 degrees, 15% RH, wind NW @ 6, gusts to 17
• Incident Location
Unified Command
Saddle Ridge, Vegetation Fire, Los Angeles County, Update
Saddle Ridge Rd, Sylmar
Local DPA, SRA/LRA/FRA, Los Angeles City Fire/ Los Angeles County Fire/ Angeles National Forest, Contract County
• 8,391 acres (+426 acres), grass and brush, 44% contained (+1% containment)
• Unified Command Los Angeles City, Los Angeles County, USFS
• Minimal fire behavior with backing, creeping, and smoldering
• Continued structure threat
• Repopulation of affected areas
• Federal air and ground resources assigned
Sandalwood, Vegetation Fire, Riverside County, Final
Sandalwood Dr x I10, Calimesa
Local DPA, LRA, Calimesa City (Wildland Cooperative Agreement)
• 1,011 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 100% contained (+6% containment)
State
Briceburg, Vegetation Fire, Mariposa County, Update
Hwy 140 x Briceburg Bridge Rd, 4 miles north of Midpines
State/Federal DPA, SRA/FRA, Madera-Mariposa-Merced Unit/Sierra National Forrest
• 5,563 acres (+0 acres), brush, 80% contained (+5% containment)
• Minimal fire behavior with smoldering
• Access and terrain continue to hamper control effects
• Continue to improve, reinforce and secure control lines
• Federal air and ground resources assigned
Federal
Taboose, Vegetation Fire, Inyo County, Update
9 miles south of Big Pine
Federal/State DPA, FRA/SRA, Inyo National Forest
• 10,400 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 75% contained (+0% containment)
• Area closures remain in effect
• Incident submitting 1 ICS -209 weekly on Thursdays at 1800
Northern California Area (PL 2 )

CA-NOD Horse Fire: 55 acres grass and brush, 100% contained. This will the last report unless significant change occurs.

CA-ENF Caples Fire: 3,133 acres timber, 46% contained. Daytime fire behavior was active with flanking, backing and single tree torching. Structures in the area remain threatened. Private timberlands and major municipal watershed remain threatened. Smoke impacts are possible to Highway 88, the Tahoe Basin and surrounding areas. Road, trail and area closures remain in effect in the area.

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