FIRE WEATHER 10/17/19

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
ALL UNITS From:
EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
Ph: OFFICE:(760) 559-3032
AFTER 2200 HRS CALL (760)-244-9790
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COUNTY F.D RADIO: #733784 CALL SIGN: COM-330

Date: 10/17/19

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:149

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 2 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
==============================================================================
SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
KEY POINTS
● Elevated fire weather conditions return briefly Friday morning due to gusty winds affecting the mountains and coastal slopes.

● Gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts Thursday through Friday, with peak gusts to 45 mph.

● Locally elevated surf conditions possible this weekend, along with increased rip current danger, mainly in San Diego County.

● Santa Ana conditions Sunday through Monday, but confidence on strength remains low.

● Fog impacting higher coastal elevations tonight through Thursday morning and again Thursday night through Friday morning.

Onshore flow will spread cooling and higher coastal humidity today with gusty southwest to west winds to 45 mph in the mountains and deserts during the afternoon and evening. There will be a brief period of gusty north winds, mostly less than 35 mph, along the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino County mountains and below the Cajon Pass Friday morning with humidity mostly not falling below 25 percent before the winds drop off. Weaker onshore flow will then prevail through Saturday night. Weak north to northeast winds will develop near the coastal slopes of the mountains on Sunday and Sunday night, then strengthen on late Sunday night into Monday afternoon with strongest gusts to 35 to 40 mph. With humidity falling to 10 to 15 percent combined with the wind, critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop Monday
morning and continue through the afternoon for the mountains and inland valleys. Low humidity will continue through Tuesday, but with weaker winds with elevated fire weather conditions near the coastal slopes of the mountains. Weak onshore flow will bring a slow recovery in humidity Wednesday.

West winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph will surface across the desert passes through this evening.

· North winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph will surface across Santa Barbara County and the Grapevine mainly nights and mornings through Sunday. The strongest and most widespread winds look to occur Saturday night into Sunday morning.

· Temperatures will be around 5 degrees below normal through Saturday, with mid 50s to mid 60s across the mountains and 70s to low 80s in the valleys.

· Minimum humidity will be mainly between 20% and 40% through Saturday, except minimum humidity will be in the teens across the deserts.

· Temperatures will warm to near normal Sunday.

· Temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal and humidity will be mainly in the teens Monday through the end of next week.

· Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph will surface across the mountains and below the canyons and passes of Southern California Sunday evening through Tuesday morning.

· Winds will be light Tuesday afternoon through the end of next week.

· No rainfall is expected across the area for the next two weeks.

Gusty West Winds: Mountains and Deserts
High Confidence Gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts.

Details
– What: Gusty west winds with peak gusts to 45 mph.
– Where: San Bernardino, Riverside, and San Diego County mountains and deserts.
– When: Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, peaking overnight.
Santa Ana Winds and Critical Fire Weather: Oct 20-21
Low Confidence

Santa Ana conditions Sunday – Monday. Low confidence on strength
of the winds.

Details
– What: East to northeast winds and low humidity, with the strongest wind
gusts around 45 mph. Elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions expected.
– Where: Mountains and valleys
– When: Sunday October 20th through Monday October 21st. Winds diminishing late Monday night.

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
Dry and mild weather will continue today with breezy to windy conditions developing this afternoon and evening over the Sierra Crest and across the Mojave Desert. A cold front will bring north winds and cooler temperatures to the area Friday. Saturday will be a litle warmer before another cold front drops temperatures
on Sunday. Warmer weather is expected during the first half of next week.

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
Even though it will be very windy over portions of the area through Sunday, the potential for large fire will be fairly low due to cool temperatures and high humidity away from the deserts. However, if an ignition were to occur in a very windy area, rapid rates of spread and long range spotting would be likely. The large fire threat will increase Sunday night through Tuesday morning across Southern California as gusty offshore winds combine with humidity in the teens. There will be some increase in the dead fuel moisture over the next few days due to the cool and humid conditions, but the dead fuel moisture will dry out to current levels early next week. Expect light initial attack activity across the area through this weekend and the possibly moderate IA activity early next week.

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING

NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to significant
fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

Zones Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19 Oct. 20 Oct. 21 Oct. 22
Zone 1:
LA-Ventura NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 2:
Orange-Inland Empire NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 3:
San Diego NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 4:
Santa Barbara NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE

—————————————————————————
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..74 to 84. 24 HR TREND……Down 8 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 9 to 19 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..41 to 51. 24 HR TREND……Down 7 degrees.
Max humidity……..55 to 65 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 20 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 13 to 23 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..71 to 78. 24 HR TREND……Down 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 13 mph becoming north 6 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 63. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 39. West wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 61. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 58. West southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 40. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 25 mph becoming northwest in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 59. Breezy, with a north northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 41. West northwest wind around 10 mph.

*PHELAN:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 72. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 68. West wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

TRONA (INDIAN WELLS) (CAZ298):
…WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY…
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..73-78. 24 HR Trend……Down 7-9 degrees.
Min Humidity……..14-24 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 6-10 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 8-16 mph in the morning increasing to 10-20 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Very good.
Mixing height…….5900 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..West 15 to 20 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..46-51. 24 HR Trend……Down 6-8 degrees.
Max Humidity……..44-54 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 15-19 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 10-20 mph in the evening decreasing to 8-16 mph overnight.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..70-75. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-4 degrees.
Min Humidity……..13-22 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 1-3 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 5-10 mph in the morning shifting to east 3-6 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….5200 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
…WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY…
THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….87-92. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….9-17 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Southwest wind 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph increasing to 40 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….West 25 to 35 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….46-51. 24 hr trend…..On average down 8 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….44-49 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 14 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….West wind 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph decreasing to 30 mph after midnight.
* 10000 ft msl….West 25 to 35 mph becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..6.

FRIDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….79-84. 24 hr trend…..On average down 8 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….9-14 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

*BAKER:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 88. South wind 7 to 12 mph becoming west southwest 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 52. Southwest wind 6 to 14 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 82. Northwest wind 7 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 49. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS (CAZ226):
THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….76-81. 7000 feet…….63-68. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….10-14 percent. 7000 feet…….15-25 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….West winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….West winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph decreasing to 35 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….West 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….38-43. 7000 feet…….19-24. 24 hr trend…..On average down 8 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….42-47 percent. 7000 feet…….49-54 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 11 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the evening.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

FRIDAY… Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….70-75. 7000 feet…….58-63. 24 hr trend…..On average down 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….11-16 percent. 7000 feet…….14-24 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds around 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….West 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ299):
…WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM PDT FRIDAY…
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..69-74. 24 HR Trend……Down 9-11 degrees.
Min Humidity……..31-41 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 13-17 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 7-14 mph in the morning increasing to 10-20 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….4500 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..West around 15 mph in the morning increasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..43-48. 24 HR Trend……Down 7-9 degrees.
Max Humidity……..62-72 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 18-22 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 10-20 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..68-73. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..24-34 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 5-9 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 6-12 mph in the morning shifting to north 4-8 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….5400 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy…becoming mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..74 to 81. 24 HR TREND……Down 13 degrees.
Min humidity……..30 to 40 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 15 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southwest 6 to 12 mph. Gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..48 to 54. 24 HR TREND……Down 8 degrees.
Max humidity……..85 to 95 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 25 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds south 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening becoming variable 3 to 6 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..77 to 83. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 25 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 6 to 15 mph becoming west 6 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 76. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 79. Windy, with a north wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56. North wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

*CHINO HILLS:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 75. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 78. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

*COLTON:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 80. Light southwest wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 83. Light northwest wind becoming north 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..57 to 67 above 6000 feet to 63 to 73 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 6 degrees.
Min humidity..10 to 15 percent on desert slopes to 20 to 30 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds west 7 to 17 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds west 9 to 17 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..27 to 37 above 6000 feet to 37 to 47 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 8 degrees.
Max humidity….35 to 45 percent on desert slopes to 70 to 80 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds northwest 12 to 22 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds northwest 11 to 21 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..Around 66 above 6000 feet to 65 to 75 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 3 degrees.
Min humidity…..10 to 15 percent on desert slopes to 15 to 25 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds north 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to 40 mph…becoming 30 mph in the afternoon.
RIDGETOP………Winds north 7 to 17 mph. Gusts to 35 mph…becoming 25 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 62. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 42. South wind 5 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 64. North wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 62. Southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 29. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 61. North wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 33. Light west wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

BANNING PASS (CAZ265):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..89 to 94. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 12 to 22 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..Around 66. 24 HR TREND……Down 4 degrees.
Max humidity……..35 to 45 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northwest 13 to 23 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..86 to 91. 24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 9 to 19 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ230):
…WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY…
THURSDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..73-89. 24 hr trend………………3 degrees cooler.
* Min Humidity………………..12-22 pct. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………West 20 to 30 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

THURSDAY NIGHT… * Sky/weather…………………Clear.
* Min Temperature……………..47-59. 24 hr trend………………5 degrees cooler.
* Max Humidity………………..32-46 pct. 24 hr trend………………4 pct wetter.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 10 to 20 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………West 15 to 25 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..69-82. 24 hr trend………………6 degrees cooler.
* Min Humidity………………..10-15 pct. 24 hr trend………………3 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to 30 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northwest 15 to 25 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….91-96. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….5-14 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….South wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 35 to 45 mph decreasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….8400 ft agl. Transport winds…..South 10 to 15 knots.
* Ventilation………Excellent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….54-59. 24 hr trend…..On average down 7 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….31-36 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Southwest wind around 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….West 20 to 30 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

FRIDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….83-88. 24 hr trend…..On average down 8 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….5-15 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….5600 ft agl. Transport winds…..North 10 to 20 knots.
* Ventilation………Very good.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER (NVZ465):
THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….84-89. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….9-13 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 35 to 45 mph becoming west 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….6800 ft agl. Transport winds…..Southwest 10 to 15 knots.
* Ventilation………Excellent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: 4000 feet…….46-51. 24 hr trend…..On average down 8 degrees.
* Max humidity: 4000 feet…….33-38 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 5 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 35 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

FRIDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….75-80. 24 hr trend…..On average down 9 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….9-12 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 20 to 30 mph becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….6000 ft agl. Transport winds…..North 10 to 15 knots.
* Ventilation………Good.

*La Jolla CA
Thursday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Thursday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Friday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 59. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable.

*Poway CA
Thursday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 76. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. West wind around 5 mph becoming southeast after midnight.
Friday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast after midnight.

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 21 to 26 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. Southwest wind 16 to 21 mph becoming west 8 to 13 mph after midnight.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 59. North wind around 8 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 32. Light and variable wind.

*************************** L.A COUNTY ********************************
…MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE…
…WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH POSSIBLE CRITICAL CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…
LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ548):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny except patchy morning low clouds and fog.
Max temperature…..71-77. 24 hr trend……Down 13.
Min humidity……..40-55 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 24.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..1200 ft asl. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..53-57.
Max humidity……..75-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 6-12 mph early becoming north 5-10 mph. Local gusts to 20 mph late in the hills.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..77-82.
Min humidity……..25-40 percent.
20-foot winds…….North 5-10 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon. Local gusts to 20 mph early in the hills.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ254):
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy then becoming sunny.
Max temperature…..67-75 low elevations to 58-65 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Down 11.
Min humidity……..25-40 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 16.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…West 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….West 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming northwest 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear except cloudy north slopes after midnight.
Min temperature…..48-55 low elevations to 39-46 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..45-65 percent except 80-100 percent colder valleys.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northwest 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northwest 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Isolated gusts to 65 mph near Whitaker Peak.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny except cloudy north slopes in the morning.
Max temperature…..69-77 low elevations to 59-67 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..12-25 percent. Highest north slopes.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…North to northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….North 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Isolated gusts to 55 mph near Whitaker Peak.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..69-77. 24 hr trend……Down 10.
Min humidity……..20-30 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 13.
20-foot winds…….West 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..40-47.
Max humidity……..60-85 percent.
20-foot winds…….West 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph becoming northwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph late.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..68-76.
Min humidity……..10-20 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northwest 6-12 mph becoming northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

============================================================
THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
2015: A brief landspout touched down in Menifee with no serious damage.

2005: A supercell thunderstorm produced penny size hail in Yorba Linda. Meanwhile, another storm dropped 1.70 inches of rain on Thermal, setting a daily record for the month of October.

2004: A tornado hit Oceanside. It was a waterspout that came ashore. Damage was done to structures, trees, windows, and an elementary school. Another funnel cloud occurred off Encinitas’ Moonlight Beach. This was the first day with measurable rain in San Diego since 4/17. A streak of 182 consecutive days of no measurable rain, the longest on record, ended on 10/16. Incredibly, this rain was the start of the wettest October on record.

1948: 1.89 inches of rain fell in Borrego Springs, the greatest daily amount on record for October.

1936: 3.77 inches of rain fell in Escondido, the greatest daily amount on record for October.

==================================================================
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1250 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while the system moves little.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Special Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172019
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

…DISTURBANCE NOW UNLIKELY TO BRING TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO…
…RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.6N 96.6W
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM WNW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI…100 KM N OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of southeastern Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches of warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 96.6 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On this track, the disturbance is expected to move farther inland over southeastern Mexico during the next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. While the chances that the disturbance will become a tropical cyclone are decreasing, there is still a small chance that a tropical depression could develop if the center can re-form along the coast later today or tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwest coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Jalisco, and 2 to 4 inches over southern Guatemala. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in Mexico. Rainfall in both Guatemala and Mexico could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: A few wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur along portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico today.

======================================================================
CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0840 Hrs. TEMP: 660 RH: 37% WIND: NW 5 G 12
0.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
=================================================================
FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 1)

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)
Number of Fires and Acres:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2019 through October 13, 2019 4,755 41,204
January 1, 2018 through October 13, 2018 5,011 631,733
5-Year Average (same interval) 4,992 372,066
2019 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 5,819 162,693

Southern California Area (PL 2 )

Unified Command
Saddle Ridge, Vegetation Fire, Los Angeles County, Update
Saddle Ridge Rd, Sylmar
Local DPA, SRA/LRA/FRA, Los Angeles City Fire/ Los Angeles County Fire/ Angeles National Forest, Contract County
• 8,391 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 52% contained (+6% containment)
• Unified Command Los Angeles City, Los Angeles County, USFS
• Minimal fire behavior with backing, creeping, and smoldering
• Continued structure threat
• Continued demobilization of equipment
• Continued suppression repair
• Crews continue to improve, reinforce, and strengthen control line
• Federal air and ground resources assigned
State
Briceburg, Vegetation Fire, Mariposa County, Update
Hwy 140 x Briceburg Bridge Rd, 4 miles north of Midpines
State/Federal DPA, SRA/FRA, Madera-Mariposa-Merced Unit/Sierra National Forrest
• 5,563 acres (+0 acres), brush, 93% contained (+3% containment)
• Minimal fire behavior with smoldering
• Continue to improve, reinforce and secure control line
• Federal ground resources assigned
Federal
Taboose, Vegetation Fire, Inyo County, Update
9 miles south of Big Pine
Federal/State DPA, FRA/SRA, Inyo National Forest
• 10,400 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 75% contained (+0% containment)
• Area closures remain in effect
• Incident submitting 1 ICS -209 weekly on Thursdays at 1800
Northern California Area (PL 2 )

CA-ENF Caples Fire: 3,200 acres timber, 48% contained. Today fire behavior was moderate with backing, flanking and short-range-spotting observed. Strong Southwest winds surfaced today in lower elevations near Caples Creek. Major municipal watershed remain threatened. Road, trail and area closures remain in effect in the area. Private property and federal old growth timber remain threatened.

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