FIRE WEATHER 10/19/19

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
ALL UNITS From:
EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
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AFTER 2200 HRS CALL (760)-244-9790
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COUNTY F.D RADIO: #733784 CALL SIGN: COM-330

Date: 10/19/19

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:151

National Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 3 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
==============================================================================
SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
Dry with seasonal temperatures today. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday into Tuesday morning as offshore flow develops. Northeast to east winds gusting 25 to 35 mph, with isolated gusts to 40 mph, are expected below the passes and canyons and on the coastal slopes Sunday and
Monday, weakening Tuesday. Daytime humidity will be around 10 to 20 percent on Sunday, lowering to 10 to 15 percent Monday, though there will be some overnight recovery. Warm weather and minimum humidity of 10-15 percent will continue elevated fire weather conditions into mid-week. Winds will briefly turn onshore on Wednesday. Another offshore event is likely Thursday into next weekend.

North winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph across Santa Barbara County and the Grapevine will increase to 20 to 40 mph with gusts 60 mph and become more widespread from Santa Barbara County to the western half of Los Angeles County this evening through Sunday morning. Winds will decrease and become localized Sunday afternoon Temperatures will be near to a little above normal through Sunday.

· Maximum temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the mountains and 70s to low 80s in the valleys today, with upper 50s and 60s across the mountains and mid 70s to mid 80s in the valleys Sunday.

· Minimum humidity will be mainly between 15% and 30% through Sunday.

· Local northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph will surface across the mountains and below the canyons and passes of Southern California Sunday evening through Tuesday morning.

· Temperatures will warm to around 10 degrees above normal Monday through the end of next week.

· Minimum humidity will be mainly in the teens Monday through the end of next week.

· Another weak Santa Ana wind event is possible late next week.

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
Westerly breezes and low RH will make for elevated fire danger today across the Southern Great Basin, however winds look below Red Flag criteria. Thereafter, dry and seasonable weather is expected through the period with periodic northerly breezes. Strongest winds will be focused down the Colorado River Valley on Sunday and Thursday.

SPECIAL NOTES:

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
There will be an elevated threat for large fire from Santa Barbara County eastward to the western half of Los Angeles County this evening through Sunday morning due to very strong north winds. Humidity is expected to be fairly high during this period, but any new ignition will see extreme rapid rates of spread and long range spotting. The potential for large fire will be elevated across most of Southern California Monday through the end of next week as gusty offshore winds combine with warm temperatures and humidity in the teens. The only day with light winds looks to be Wednesday when the large fire threat will be low. Both the live and dead fuel moisture will remain very low through the end of next week and be very susceptible to new ignitions. Expect light to moderate initial attack activity across the region through the end of next week

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: NO RATEING
NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to significant fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

Zones Oct. 19 Oct. 20 Oct. 21 Oct. 22 Oct. 23 Oct. 24
Zone 1:
LA-Ventura
NO RATEING MARGINAL MARGINAL NO RATEING NO RATEING NO RATEING
Zone 2:
Orange-Inland Empire
NO RATEING MARGINAL
MARGINAL
NO RATEING
NO RATEING
NO RATEING
Zone 3:
San Diego NO RATEING NO RATEING MARGINAL NO RATEING NO RATEING NO RATEING
Zone 4:
Santa Barbara MARGINAL MODERATE NO RATEING NO RATEING NO RATEING NO RATEING

————————————————————————
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
TODAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..74 to 81. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.TONIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..44 to 52. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Max humidity……..45 to 55 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 9 to 19 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..72 to 77. 24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)…Winds west 6 to 12 mph becoming northeast 6 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 45. West wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 61. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 45. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the evening.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT SATURDAY…
…HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 61. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night
Clear, with a low around 41. Windy, with a north wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to 30 to 35 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 61. Windy, with a north northeast wind 30 to 35 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 47. Windy, with a north northeast wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

*PHELAN:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 71. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 51. West wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 68. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming south in the evening.

TRONA (INDIAN WELLS) (CAZ298):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..73-78. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-4 degrees.
Min Humidity……..13-22 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….West 3-7 mph in the early morning increasing to 7-14 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….5000 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northwest around 5 mph in the morning shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min Temperature…..47-52. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-4 degrees.
Max Humidity……..42-52 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 4-10 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 7-15 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..71-76. 24 HR Trend……Down 1-3 degrees.
Min Humidity……..15-25 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 3-8 mph in the early morning shifting to the east 3-6 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Fair.
Mixing height…….4500 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 5 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
SATURDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….80-85. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….8-13 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….West wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 15 to 25 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….45-50. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….38-43 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 9 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….West wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 15 to 25 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….78-83. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….9-15 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 15 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

*BAKER:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 82. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49. South wind around 7 mph becoming north northeast after midnight.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 82. North northwest wind 6 to 11 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 49. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming light and variable.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS (CAZ226):
SATURDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….73-78. 7000 feet…….63-68. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….11-15 percent. 7000 feet…….15-25 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….West winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph increasing to 35 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….West 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….39-44. 7000 feet…….21-26. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….45-50 percent. 7000 feet…….53-58 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 10 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Upper slopes….West winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph in the evening.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….70-75. 7000 feet…….59-64. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….16-19 percent. 7000 feet…….25-35 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 8 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Upper slopes….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..3.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ299):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..70-75. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 degrees.
Min Humidity……..25-35 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 3-7 mph in the early morning increasing to west 8-17 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….5000 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northwest around 5 mph in the morning increasing to around 15 mph in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min Temperature…..45-50. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-4 degrees.
Max Humidity……..64-74 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 6-16 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 6-18 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..69-74. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..28-38 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 3-13 mph in the early morning shifting to the northeast 4-8 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….5000 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 5 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
TODAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..78 to 84. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 2 to 5 mph becoming west 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.TONIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..50 to 57. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Max humidity……..55 to 65 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 9 mph becoming southeast 6 to 8 mph after midnight. Gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..81 to 88. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 9 to 19 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 79. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 81. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

*CHINO HILLS:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 78. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 84. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 61. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

*COLTON:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 82. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming north after midnight.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 86. North wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255):
TODAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..58 to 68 above 6000 feet to 66 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 6 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds west 6 to 13 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds northwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.TONIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..31 to 41 above 6000 feet to 42 to 52 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Max humidity…30 to 40 percent on desert slopes to 45 to 55 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND…Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds northwest 9 to 19 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds northwest 13 to 23 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..59 to 69 above 6000 feet to 69 to 79 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 6 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds north 7 to 17 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds north 8 to 18 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 65. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 45. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 65. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 65. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 37. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 62. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

BANNING PASS (CAZ265):
.TODAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..85 to 90. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north around 6 mph becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.TONIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..58 to 66. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Max humidity……..25 to 35 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 13 mph becoming north 6 to 14 mph after midnight. Gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..86 to 91. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 11 to 21 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ230):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..71-83. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..10-16 pct. 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northwest 20 to 30 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather…………………Clear.
* Min Temperature……………..47-57. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Max Humidity………………..29-41 pct. 24 hr trend………………8 pct wetter.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northwest 30 to 40 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..68-81. 24 hr trend………………3 degrees cooler.
* Min Humidity………………..12-17 pct. 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 10 to 20 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northwest 20 to 30 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
SATURDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….84-89. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….4-12 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….West 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….6400 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds becoming south around 10 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation………Fair.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….52-57. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….25-30 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….South wind up to 10 mph shifting to the north after midnight.
* 10000 ft msl….West 15 to 25 mph shifting to the northwest 15 to 20 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….81-86. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….4-14 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 20 to 30 mph increasing to 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….5200 ft agl. Transport winds…..North 15 to 20 knots.
* Ventilation………Excellent.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER (NVZ465):
SATURDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….77-82. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….7-10 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….West 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….5700 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Fair.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: 4000 feet…….44-49. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Max humidity: 4000 feet…….31-36 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 9 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….West winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 15 to 25 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….71-76. 24 hr trend…..On average down 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….9-14 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 25 to 35 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….6600 ft agl. Transport winds…..North around 10 knots.
* Ventilation………Good.

*La Jolla CA
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 71. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 73. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 64. North wind around 5 mph becoming southeast in the evening.

*Poway CA
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Calm wind.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Light northeast wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Saturday through Thursday

A cold storm will affect northern Utah and parts of central Utah this upcoming weekend. By Saturday evening, the northern mountains will likely have seen several inches of new snow at mid and high elevations, especially near the Idaho border. Through the entire weekend, currently expecting to see 8-14″ of snow at mid and high elevation in the northern mountains. Accumulating snow is likely across southwest Wyoming, the Bear River Valley, the
Wasatch Back and Benches. Accumulations along the Wasatch Front are possible.

Winds increase this weekend, and may be especially gusty across the West Desert, the western Uinta Basin as well as Castle Country and outlying Dixie Saturday night and Sunday.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across most valleys of central and southern Utah Saturday due to increasingly gusty southwest winds and low humidity. Locally critical fire weather conditions cannot be ruled out Sunday in the wake of the cold front across southern Utah.

Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Breezy, with a light and variable wind becoming southwest 23 to 28 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of rain before midnight, then a slight chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 19 to 29 mph decreasing to 7 to 17 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 52. North wind 8 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 28. North wind 5 to 11 mph.

*************************** L.A COUNTY ********************************
…MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA…
…ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAK SANTA ANA WINDS WITH LOW HUMIDITIES…
LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ548):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..77-83. 24 hr trend……Little change.
Min humidity……..20-35 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 10.
20-foot winds…….North 5-10 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon. Local gusts to 20 mph early in the hills.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..55-59.
Max humidity……..60-80 percent except 45-55 percent in the hills.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..81-87.
Min humidity……..20-30 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ254):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..70-78 low elevations to 60-68 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Little change.
Min humidity……..8-20 percent except 20-30 percent north facing slopes. 24 hr trend……Down 3.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northwest to north 15-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph becoming 20-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph late.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northwest to north 15-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph becoming 20-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph late. Isolated gusts to 55 mph near Whitaker Peak.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..51-59 low elevations to 41-49 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..30-50 percent except 50-60 percent colder valleys.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northwest to north 25-40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Strongest through the I-5 Corridor.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northwest to north 25-40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Isolated gusts to 70 mph near Whitaker Peak.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..71-81 low elevations to 61-68 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..10-25 percent except 25-35 percent north facing slopes.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…North 25-40 mph with gusts to 60 mph in the morning becoming north to northeast 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….North 25-40 mph with gusts to 60 mph in the morning becoming north to northeast 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..70-78. 24 hr trend……Little change.
Min humidity……..12-20 percent. 24 hr trend……Little change.
20-foot winds…….Northwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming west 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..41-49 except 52-54 in the hills.
Max humidity……..50-70 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northwest 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in the evening diminishing to 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..68-78.
Min humidity……..12-20 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northwest 10-20 mph with local gusts to 25 mph becoming northeast 10-20 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

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THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
2010: Heavy thunderstorms dropped 0.62 inch in 15 minutes in Victorville. Localized flash flooding occurred. Lightning struck a home in Wildomar and Riverside Woodcrest, and a mobile home in Hesperia. A six-inch hole resulted in the Wildomar roof and a three-inch hole in Riverside. The mobile home caught on fire. In San Diego County, Alpine received 1.91 inches of rain and Ramona recorded 2.11 inches, both daily rainfall records for October.

1992: Dense fog lead to a 31-car pileup along Interstate 15 near Rancho Cucamonga, forcing the closure of the interstate for ten hours.

1991: It was 111° in Palm Springs, the latest date in the season to record 110° or higher.

1972: A brief weak tornado touched down near Beaumont. A violent thunderstorm struck Redlands with two hours of heavy rain and hail. Officially at the Redlands gauge, 0.55 inch fell. Intersections in Redlands were flooded.

1963: Storms in the San Diego County desert brought heavy rain, resulting in flooding that damaged structures and washed out local roadways. Crop damage was widespread.

1949: Campo reported a trace of snowfall, the earliest snowfall on record.
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TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Octave, located over the southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific basin.

An elongated area of disturbed weather is located near the west-central coast of Mexico. A weak low pressure system is expected to develop near the coast on Saturday and some slight development is possible before the system moves inland and dissipates by late Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with this disturbance could produce flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas of mountainous terrain, during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

A small low pressure system has developed over the far southwestern portion of the East Pacific basin. Although the low is currently producing no organized shower or thunderstorm activity, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development over the weekend, and some slow development is possible while the system drifts westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
.

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CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0850 Hrs. TEMP: 570 RH: 29% WIND: CALM
0.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
=================================================================

FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 2)

Due to an increase in resource mobilization and significant incidents occurring in multiple geographic areas coupled with current and predicted critical fire weather conditions in those geographic areas, the National Preparedness Level has increased to 2 at 1400MDT today.

Fourteen large fires have burned more than 228,000 acres in five states. Twelve new large fires were reported this week.

Daily statistics 10/18/19
Number of new large fires or emergency response 12 States currently reporting large fires:
Number of active large fires
Total does not include individual fires within complexes. 14 Alaska (1)
Arizona (1)
California (5)
Colorado (5)
Utah (2)
Acres from active fires 228,048
Fires contained 14
Year-to-date statistics
2019 (1/1/19 – 10/18/19) Fires: 43,662 Acres: 4,465,562
2018 (1/1/18 – 10/18/18) Fires: 50,004 Acres: 8,155,979
2017 (1/1/17 – 10/18/17) Fires: 51,655 Acres: 8,793,877
2016 (1/1/16 – 10/18/16) Fires: 49,388 Acres: 4,984,056
2015 (1/1/15 – 10/18/15) Fires: 52,863 Acres: 9,337,889
2014 (1/1/14 – 10/18/14) Fires: 42,505 Acres: 3,287,042
2013 (1/1/13 – 10/18/13) Fires: 40,070 Acres: 4,146,336
2012 (1/1/12 – 10/18/12) Fires: 50,583 Acres: 8,982,860
2011 (1/1/11 – 10/18/11) Fires: 63,778 Acres: 8,233,526
2010 (1/1/10 – 10/18/10) Fires: 60,812 Acres: 3,027,438
2009 (1/1/09 – 10/18/09) Fires: 72,620 Acres: 5,705,539
10-year average Year-to-Date
2009-2018 Fires: 52,316 Acres: 6,223,929

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)

Number of Fires and Acres:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2019 through October 13, 2019 4,755 41,204
January 1, 2018 through October 13, 2018 5,011 631,733
5-Year Average (same interval) 4,992 372,066
2019 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 5,819 162,693

Southern California Area (PL 3 )
Unified Command

Saddle Ridge, Vegetation Fire, Los Angeles County, Update
Saddle Ridge Rd, Sylmar
Local DPA, SRA/LRA/FRA, Los Angeles City Fire/ Los Angeles County Fire/ Angeles National Forest, Contract County
• 8,391 acres (+408 acres), grass and brush, 68% contained (+4% containment)
• Unified Command Los Angeles City, Los Angeles County, USFS
• Minimal fire behavior with backing, creeping, and smoldering
• Continued structure threat
• Continued demobilization of equipment
• Continued suppression repair
• Crews continue to improve, reinforce, and strengthen control line
• Federal air and ground resources assigned
State

Briceburg, Vegetation Fire, Mariposa County, Update
Hwy 140 x Briceburg Bridge Rd, 4 miles north of Midpines
State/Federal DPA, SRA/FRA, Madera-Mariposa-Merced Unit/Sierra National Forrest
• 5,563 acres (+0 acres), brush, 98% contained (+1% containment)
• Minimal fire behavior with smoldering
• Continue to improve, reinforce and secure control line
• Federal ground resources assigned
• Incident will submit 1 ICS-209 daily at 1800
Federal

Taboose, Vegetation Fire, Inyo County, Update
9 miles south of Big Pine
Federal/State DPA, FRA/SRA, Inyo National Forest
• 10,400 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 75% contained (+0% containment)
• Area closures remain in effect
• Incident submitting 1 ICS -209 weekly on Thursdays at 1800
Northern California Area (PL 2 )

CA-ENF Caples Fire: 3,434 acres timber, 55% contained. Fire behavior was moderate today with backing, flanking and torching observed. Major municipal watershed remains threatened. Smoke impacts are possible to Highway 88, the Tahoe Basin and surrounding areas. Road, trail and area closures remain in effect in the area. Private property and federal old growth timber remains threatened.

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