FIRE WEATHER 10/2/19

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
ALL UNITS From:
EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
Ph: OFFICE:(760) 559-3032
AFTER 2200 HRS CALL (760)-244-9790
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COUNTY F.D RADIO: #733784 CALL SIGN: COM-330

Date: 10/2/19

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:134

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 2 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
===================================================================
SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
Weak offshore flow will bring gusty east winds to 30 mph along and near the coastal slopes of the mountains this morning with lowest humidity for the Inland Empire onto the lower coastal slopes of the mountains falling to 10 to 15 percent during the morning. This will bring a few hours of near critical fire weather conditions for the windier areas, mainly from mid morning through early afternoon. High temperatures will be warmer for most areas today. Weak onshore flow will return tonight and continue into next week. This will bring a recovery in humidity for the inland valleys into the mountains with gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts during the late afternoon into the evening each day. High pressure to the south is expected to bring a warming trend for Saturday into Monday or Tuesday.
High temperatures today and Thursday 10-15 degrees warmer along the coast and in the intermediate valleys with highs back in the mid to upper 80s. 60s will be common in the mountains below 7,000 feet. Maximum temperatures cooling off a couple degrees Friday. By Sunday and Monday, some 90s will return to the warmest valleys.

· Local northeast winds 8-15 mph this morning along the central coast and northern LA County. All winds light by afternoon.

· Minimum RH dropping into the teens each afternoon for 6-8 hours except the highest elevations and locations right along the coast. Good recovery at night over most areas due to clear skies, light winds and lengthening nighttime hours. Next week, minimum RH may approach the single digits with fair/poor recovery at night.

KEY POINTS
Primary impacts/hazards…
● Gusty Santa Ana winds Wednesday, mainly from late tonight through the morning,diminishing in the afternoon (High Confidence)

○ Wind speeds 30-40 mph could create patchy blowing dust, yet not expected to reach critical thresholds

○ Very low relative humidity will cause elevated fire weather conditions

● Much Warmer conditions developing Wednesday area-wide, continuing through early next week (High Confidence)

○ Temperatures, although much warmer than what we’ve experienced lately, are not expected to reach critical levels

■ Warmest Temps by Sunday through next Tuesday, slightly above normal
temps during this time period

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
For today, a benign wind field is expected resulting in peak wind gusts for the most part staying below 20 mph across most of the area. Min RH values on the other hand are expected to drop well below critical thresholds. A few zones, notably NV462,464,465, and 466 have been upgraded to critical status with the rest of the southern Nevada zones approaching critical. While today should be a relatively low fire weather day due to the weak winds, increasing awareness will be needed, especially tomorrow as borderline critical winds will be possible in the afternoon, especially for NV462, 463, and 461 as these areas will be elevated to near-critical.

SPECIAL NOTES:
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA MONTHLY/SEASONAL OUTLOOK
VALID FOR: OCT. 2019 – JANUARY 2020

• Temperatures slightly above normal, especially across inland areas.

• Chance of a delayed start to the “rainy season” with a high likelihood of below normal rainfall this winter, overall.

• Near normal to slightly above number of offshore wind events expected through December.

FUELS AND DROUGHT OUTLOOK

Hot, dry conditions in August and the first part of September caused fuel moisture conditions to drop steeply during the past few weeks. The “cushion” that live fuels had been showing of above normal fuel moisture from last winter’s rains has seemingly disappeared and fuel moisture conditions are trending fairly close to average for this time of year. Dead fuels are a bit drier than average and live fuels are trending pretty close to critically dry levels, so both live and dead fuels will carry fire without hesitation. Fires will grow rapidly during especially hot or windy periods, at least until winter rains arrive.

Since there is a slight majority of long-range models are forecasting below average precipitation this fall/early winter, large fire potential is expected to remain slightly above normal through the fall months into the first part of winter. Large fire potential will likely be highest in the coastal areas which are prone to offshore winds. The number of such events is expected to be close to normal – but even a normal number of windy days would be significantly higher than last fall when very few offshore wind days were experienced. Looking ahead to the winter, there is a growing consensus that this winter may end up being drier than normal. The precipitation deficits this winter may be highest over Southern California with less severely dry conditions across Central CA. Should this prove to be the case, there will likely be drought conditions across part, or perhaps nearly all, of the Geographic Area emerging in the spring. There may also be less water available in reservoirs going into 2020 if snowpack is below normal this year. If this winter ends up being drier and warmer than normal spring, (as suggested by more than one model) the long respite from fires that we saw last December – April is unlikely to repeat this coming winter.

BI-MONTHLY FUELS DISCUSSION
For Southern and Central California

A continuation of the 3-4 day vacillation between hot weather and relatively cool and humid weather was experienced across most of the district during the past two weeks. Several strong ridges built across the western half of the country, but like heatwaves of the past few months, they were short-lived and quickly replaced by troughs entering the Pacific Northwest. One particularly deep trough arriving on the 7th and 8th brought widespread wetting rains to the northern half of the state. Most of the rain stayed north of the district, but a few areas around Yosemite N.P. received some light rainfall.

The rain was far too inconsequential to change fuel moisture conditions and dead fuel moisture is been hovering close to the 90th percentile in terms of dryness. Some of the driest conditions remain over the Sierra Foothills and the central coast interior. The western mountains PSA has also been close to the 95th percentile in the 1,000 hour dead fuel moisture calculations. What’s changed over recent days is the state of the live fuels: some units are reporting live fuel moisture is approaching a critically dry level. The recent spike in wildfire activity which followed the lighting event on the 1st highlighted the quick acceleration in drying conditions.

With this change toward much drier fuels, expect live fuel readily accept flame and allow for rapid rates of spread during peak heating hours or windy periods. These fuels were previously acting as a “buffer” to rapid fire spread, but this will no longer be the case heading into October. Moderate initial attack and resource demand can be expected during most burning periods over the next two weeks. Fortunately, at the time of this writing, no strong offshore winds events appear imminent.

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
Large fire potential will generally remain low the next few days due to light winds and good RH recovery at night. New starts may grow at a moderate rate and burn periods will generally be confined to the daylight hours. Next week, continued sunny and warm weather may result in live fuel moisture dropping to critical levels. There may be an increase in IA as all fuel types will be highly receptive to ignition by Monday or Tuesday. Expect light resource demand the rest of the week, but a significant increase may occur by the middle of next week

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING
NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to significant fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

Zones Sept.20 Sept. 21 SEPT.22 SEPT. 23 SEPT. 24 SEPT. 25
Zone 1:
LA-Ventura NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 2:
Orange-Inland Empire NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 3:
San Diego NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 4:
Santa Barbara NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE

—————————————————————
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..76 to 81. 24 HR TREND……Up 7 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..43 to 53. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Max humidity……..25 to 35 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming south 6 to 8 mph after midnight.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..79 to 88. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..5 to 10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds south 6 to 13 mph. Gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 65. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 47. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 68. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 48. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
. Today
Sunny, with a high near 62. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 43. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the evening.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 61. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the morning.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 43. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light southwest in the evening.

*PHELAN:
. Today
Sunny, with a high near 73. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the evening.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 76. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light southwest. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

TRONA (INDIAN WELLS) (CAZ298):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..74-79. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-8 degrees.
Min Humidity……..8-14 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-4 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast to southeast up to 10 mph.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….6400 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 10 mph in the morning shifting to the east in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..49-54. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 degrees.
Max Humidity……..21-31 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 6-16 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….East 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..79-86. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-9 degrees.
Min Humidity……..7-12 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….East 3-7 mph becoming south to southwest 7-15 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….7100 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..West around 5 mph in the morning increasing to southwest around 15 mph in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….83-88. 24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….7-10 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….East wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….48-53. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….20-25 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 7 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….87-92. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….7-10 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 15 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

*BAKER:
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 54. East wind 3 to 5 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 90. South wind 3 to 8 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 56. South wind 3 to 6 mph.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS (CAZ226):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….74-79. 7000 feet…….59-64. 24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….8-11 percent. 7000 feet…….13-23 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….41-46. 7000 feet…….21-26. 24 hr trend…..On average up 6 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….24-29 percent. 7000 feet…….35-40 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 12 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the southwest up to 10 mph after midnight.
* Upper slopes….Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….79-84. 7000 feet…….65-70. 24 hr trend…..On average up 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….7-9 percent. 7000 feet…….9-19 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ299):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..73-78. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-7 degrees.
Min Humidity……..10-15 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-8 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….East 5-12 mph.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….6800 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast around 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..38-48. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-5 degrees.
Max Humidity……..28-45 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 9-19 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….East 3-7 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..78-84. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-4 degrees.
Min Humidity……..8-14 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….East to southeast 4-7 mph becoming southwest to west 7-17 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….6700 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northwest around 5 mph in the morning shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..81 to 88. 24 HR TREND……Up 10 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 20 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 6 to 11 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..52 to 58. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Max humidity……..60 to 70 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 15 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 11 mph. Gusts to 25 mph in the evening.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..80 to 86. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southwest 6 to 10 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 56. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the evening.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 82. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 55. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

*CHINO HILLS:
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 84. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 54. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 80. Light south wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 54. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

*COLTON:
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 58. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south in the evening.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 85. Light southwest wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 57. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south in the evening.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..59 to 69 above 6000 feet to 66 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 15 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds east 6 to 13 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds south 6 to 8 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..35 to 45 above 6000 feet to 40 to 50 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 degrees.
Max humidity.25 to 30 percent on desert slopes to 40 to 50 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND..Down 75 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…..SLOPES………..Winds east 6 to 8 mph becoming south 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph after midnight.
RIDGETOP………Winds south 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..61 to 71 above 6000 feet to 67 to 77 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds south 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds southwest 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 68. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 47. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 68. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 48. Southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 65. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 34. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 67. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 35. Southwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

BANNING PASS (CAZ265):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..86 to 91. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..58 to 66. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Max humidity……..25 to 35 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west around 6 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..89 to 94. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southeast 6 to 8 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ230):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..71-84. 24 hr trend………………4 degrees warmer.
* Min Humidity………………..10-15 pct. 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southeast in the afternoon.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 10 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather…………………Clear.
* Min Temperature……………..50-60. 24 hr trend………………4 degrees warmer.
* Max Humidity………………..20-26 pct. 24 hr trend………………8 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 10 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.

THURSDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..76-89. 24 hr trend………………5 degrees warmer.
* Min Humidity………………..10-15 pct. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 15 to 25 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….87-92. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….4-10 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph in the morning becoming upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….6300 ft agl. Transport winds…..North around 10 knots in the morning becoming light.
* Ventilation………Good.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….54-59. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….20-25 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south 10 to 20 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….91-96. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….5-13 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….6900 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds becoming south around 10 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation………Good.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER (NVZ465):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….79-84. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….7-10 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….5700 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Fair.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: 4000 feet…….45-50. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: 4000 feet…….19-24 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….84-89. 24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….6-9 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 15 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….6800 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds becoming southeast around 10 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation………Good.

*La Jolla CA
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 73. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 71. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

*Poway CA
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 82. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Wednesday through Monday

Critical Fire Weather conditions are expected locally Thursday, and more widespread Friday south of I-80.

Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 35. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming southeast in the evening.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 74. Southeast wind 8 to 17 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 43. South wind 7 to 13 mph.

*************************** L.A COUNTY ********************************
…ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY DUE TO BREEZY OFFSHORE CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITIES…

…ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS…
LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ548):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..82-88. 24 hr trend……Up 10.
Min humidity……..10-20 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 20.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..53-62.
Max humidity……..55-70 percent except 35-50 percent in the hills.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..79-84.
Min humidity……..20-30 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ254):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..72-82 low elevations to 62-70 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Up 9.
Min humidity……..8-20 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 10-20.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph becoming upslope 6-12 mph late in the afternoon. Strongest western portion.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph becoming upslope 6-12 mph late in the afternoon. Strongest western portion.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..51-57 low elevations to 44-49 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..20-35 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…East 6-12 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….East 6-12 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..72-82 low elevations to 62-70 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..10-20 percent.
20-foot winds…… Valleys/lwr slopes…South 6-12 mph becoming southwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….South 6-12 mph becoming southwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..73-80. 24 hr trend……Up 7.
Min humidity……..8-12 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 5.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming 6-12 mph late.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..40-49 except 50-55 in the hills.
Max humidity……..20-40 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph in the evening becoming variable 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..75-83.
Min humidity……..8-12 percent.
20-foot winds…….North 6-12 mph becoming west 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

============================================================
THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
2010: A funnel cloud was observed in Yucaipa.

1986: Rain and thunderstorms hit the LA area. 1.50 inches of rain fell in Pasadena (in a little more than one hour), 1.02 inches fell in LA (in less than one hour), nearly one inch fell in Lake Arrowhead in 40 minutes, and 0.77 inch fell in Monrovia. Three inches of hail piled up in Pasadena. Wind gusts were clocked to 35 mph. Hail nearly 0.5 inch in diameter fell at the Greek Theater in Hollywood. In Blythe, winds gusted over 50 mph and 0.79 inch or rain fell in 30 minutes. Classes were cancelled at CSU-Northridge from power outages and several serious traffic accidents resulted in Pasadena because of hail. Minor flooding of roadways also occurred. San Diego County was largely missed, with only 0.22 inch reported at Palomar Mountain.

1980: It was 116° in Palm Springs and 113° in Borrego Springs, each the highest temperature on record for October. This also occurred in Borrego Springs the next day on 10/3.

1858: A category one hurricane struck San Diego, the only documented tropical cyclone to bring hurricane force winds to California, or the West Coast of the United States. This
occurred before official weather observations began. Implied winds of at least 75 mph (minimal category one hurricane) were based on damage and journalistic accounts. Tropical storm force winds extended as far north as Long Beach. Extensive wind damage to property neared F2 (Fujita Scale) damage. Streets were swept clean by heavy rains.

==================================================================
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized since yesterday. Further development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

======================================================================
CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0727 Hrs. TEMP: 450 RH: 59% WIND: W 5 G 9
0.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
=================================================================
FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 1)

Initial attack activity: Light (97 new fires)
New large incidents: 3
Large fires contained: 1
Uncontained large fires:*** 4
Area Command teams committed: 0
NIMOs committed: 0
Type 1 IMTs committed: 1
Type 2 IMTs committed: 0

Active Incident Resource Summary
GACC Incidents Cumulative Acres Crews Engines Helicopters Total Personnel
AICC 1 167,164 0 1 0 8
NWCC 1 354 2 0 0 50
ONCC 2 59,863 3 11 0 293
OSCC 4 10,816.5 2 5 1 111
NRCC 3 3,470 0 1 0 16
GBCC 1 397 0 10 1 52
SWCC 6 30,749 1 6 1 69
RMCC 2 2,901 8 9 3 251
EACC 0 0 0 0 0 0
SACC 14 1,432.8 4 20 1 169
Total 34 277,147.3 20 63 7 1,019

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)
Number of Fires and Acres:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2019 through September 29, 2019 4,467 40,483
January 1, 2018 through September 29, 2018 4,806 627,623
5-Year Average (same interval) 4,743 324,606
2019 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 5,487 157,923

Southern California Area (PL 2 )
New fires: 15
New large incidents: 0
Uncontained large fires: 1

Federal
Ranch, Vegetation Fire, San Luis Obispo County, Update
Pozo Rd x Avenales Ranch Rd, 14 miles E of Pozo
Federal DPA, FRA/SRA, Los Padres National Forest
• 55 acres (+5 acres), grass and brush, 45% contained (+45% containment)
• Forward rate of spread has been stopped
• Fire is in steep terrain
Schaeffer, Vegetation Fire, Tulare County, Update
20 miles north of Kernville
Federal DPA, FRA Sequoia National Forest
• 290 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 50% contained (+0% containment)
• Incident submitting 1 ICS -209 weekly on Thursdays at 1800
Taboose, Vegetation Fire, Inyo County, Update
9 miles south of Big Pine
Federal/State DPA, FRA/SRA, Inyo National Forest
• 10,296 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 75% contained (+0% containment)
• Area closures remain in effect
• Incident submitting 1 ICS -209 weekly on Thursdays at 1800

Northern California Area (PL 2 )
New fires: 7
New large incidents: 0
Uncontained large fires: 0

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