FIRE WEATHER 10/20/19

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
ALL UNITS From:
EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
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Date: 10/20/19
SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:152

National Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 3 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
==============================================================================
SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
Much drier and warmer weather through Tuesday. Periods of gusty offshore winds will develop this morning and continue into Monday, weakening Tuesday. Onshore flow briefly returns Wednesday followed by stronger offshore flow Thursday and Friday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected at times along the coastal slopes and foothills, and near the passes with widespread daytime relative humidity below 15 percent.

North winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts 60 mph will surface from Santa Barbara County eastward to the western half of Los Angeles County this morning. Winds will decrease across most of this area in the afternoon, except over Santa Barbara County where strong winds will continue through tonight.

· Temperatures will remain near to a little above normal today, with upper 50s and 60s across the mountains and mid 70s to mid 80s in the valleys.
· Minimum humidity will be mainly between 15% and 30% today.
· Significant warming will take place Monday and temperatures will be well above normal through the end of this week.

· Minimum humidity will be mainly in the teens Monday through the end of this week.

· There no longer looks to be a Santa Ana wind event early this week and only light winds are expected across the area Monday through Wednesday.

· Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph will surface across the mountains and below the canyons and passes of Southern California Thursday morning through Friday morning.

· Substantial cooling along with a big increase in humidity will occur next weekend.

· Strong southwest to west winds will surface over the mountains and deserts next weekend.

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
Dry conditions with gusty northerly winds down the Colorado River Valley can be expected today. Dry conditions will continue through the upcoming week, with a return of gusty north winds expected Thursday.

SPECIAL NOTES:
The 2019-20 U.S. Winter Outlook | December through February
Temperature
• The greatest likelihood for warmer-than-normal conditions are in Alaska and Hawaii, with more modest probabilities for above-average temperatures spanning large parts of the remaining lower 48 from the West across the South and up the eastern seaboard.

• The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
• No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter.
Precipitation

• Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in Alaska and Hawaii this winter, along with portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

• Drier-than-average conditions are most likely for Louisiana, parts of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma as well areas of northern and central California.

The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, Drought

• Abnormally dry conditions are present across much of the Southern U.S., with areas of the most severe drought in the Four Corners region of the Southwest, central Texas and parts of the Southeast.

• Drought is expected to improve in portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Alaska and Hawaii, while persisting in central Texas and the Southwest.

• Drought development is expected to occur in parts of central California
• near-, or above-average precipitation.

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
Very strong north winds will cause extreme fire behavior on any new ignitions from Santa Barbara County to the western half of Los Angeles County today. However, humidity in this area will be on the high side so the chance of a new ignition will be fairly low. Even though it will be warm and dry Monday through Wednesday, the potential for large fire will be low due to light winds. The large fire threat will increase late this week across Southern California as the warm and dry conditions combine with gusty offshore winds. This Santa Ana wind event looks weak, so no “High Risk” days are anticipated. The potential for large fire will become low across the entire region next weekend as cool and humid conditions return to the area.

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING

NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to significant
fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

Zones Oct. 20 Oct. 21 Oct. 22 Oct. 23 Oct. 24 Oct. 25
Zone 1:
LA-Ventura MARGINAL MARGINAL NO RATE NO RATE MARGINAL MARGINAL
Zone 2:
Orange-Inland Empire MARGINAL MARGINAL NO RATE NO RATE MARGINAL MARGINAL
Zone 3:
San Diego NO RATE MARGINAL NO RATE NO RATE MARGINAL MARGINAL
Zone 4:
Santa Barbara MODERATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE

——————————————————————————-
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..72 to 77. 24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 10 mph becoming northeast 6 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..46 to 54. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 degrees.
Max humidity……..30 to 40 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 25 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..77 to 82. 24 HR TREND……Up 6 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northeast 6 to 9 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 61. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 46. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 66. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 50. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
…HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY…

…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA…LOS ANGELES…AND VENTURA COUNTIES…AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES…
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 41. Very windy, with a north wind 30 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 61. Very windy, with a north wind 30 to 40 mph decreasing to 5 to 15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 46. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

*PHELAN:
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 69. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the morning.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 52. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming south after midnight.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 75. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the morning.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 55. South wind around 5 mph becoming west after midnight.

TRONA (INDIAN WELLS) (CAZ298):
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..72-77. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..14-22 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-7 mph in the early morning shifting to the east 3-6 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….5100 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 5 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..48-53. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Max Humidity……..37-47 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-9 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..77-82. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-8 degrees.
Min Humidity……..13-20 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-5 mph in the early morning shifting to the east 3-6 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Fair.
Mixing height…….4200 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 5 mph in the morning shifting to the east in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….79-84. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….9-15 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 15 to 25 mph increasing to north 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….47-52. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….27-32 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 9 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 25 to 35 mph becoming northwest 20 to 30 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

MONDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….83-88. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….9-14 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

*BAKER:
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 82. North northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 50. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 86. North northwest wind around 6 mph.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 52. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS (CAZ226):
SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….72-77. 7000 feet…….60-65. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….15-18 percent. 7000 feet…….24-34 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 9 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Upper slopes….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..3.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….42-47. 7000 feet…….24-29. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….44-49 percent. 7000 feet…….52-57 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Northwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..3.

MONDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….77-82. 7000 feet…….65-70. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….13-16 percent. 7000 feet…….18-28 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..3.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ299):
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..70-75. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..29-39 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-11 mph in the early morning shifting to the northeast 3-8 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….5200 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..46-51. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Max Humidity……..46-56 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 6-12 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 3-9 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..76-81. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-9 degrees.
Min Humidity……..16-26 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-5 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-6 mph in the early morning shifting to the northeast 4-8 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….5000 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast around 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..81 to 88. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 7 to 17 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..54 to 64. 24 HR TREND……Up 6 degrees.
Max humidity……..30 to 40 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 15 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..86 to 94. 24 HR TREND……Up 6 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 6 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 64. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 64. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

*CHINO HILLS:
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 85. West wind 5 to 15 mph becoming east in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 61. East wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 91. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 62. East wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

*COLTON:
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 86. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 62. North wind around 5 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 62. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the evening.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255):
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..57 to 67 above 6000 feet to 68 to 78 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds northeast 6 to 16 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds north 9 to 17 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..36 to 46 above 6000 feet to 45 to 55 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Max humidity….25 to 35 percent on desert slopes to 20 to 30 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds northeast 7 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds north 10 to 17 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..62 to 72 above 6000 feet to 73 to 83 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 8 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds northeast 6 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds northeast 7 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 66. Northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 51. Northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 71. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 52. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 61. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 36. Northeast wind around 10 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 66. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 36. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

BANNING PASS (CAZ265):
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..87 to 92. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 7 to 17 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..58 to 66. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Max humidity……..20 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 15 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 6 to 9 mph becoming west 6 to 8 mph after midnight. Gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..89 to 94. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..5 to 10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 8 mph becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ230):
SUNDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny. Patchy blowing dust in the morning.
* Max Temperature……………..69-82. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..12-18 pct. 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 10 to 20 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northwest 20 to 30 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather…………………Clear.
* Min Temperature……………..47-58. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Max Humidity………………..22-32 pct. 24 hr trend………………9 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………North 25 to 35 mph in the evening becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph after midnight.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.

MONDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..73-85. 24 hr trend………………4 degrees warmer.
* Min Humidity………………..11-16 pct. 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….82-87. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….5-13 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 20 mph, gusts to 30 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 20 to 30 mph increasing to 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….5500 ft agl. Transport winds…..North 10 to 20 knots.
* Ventilation………Excellent.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….50-55. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….19-24 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 5 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the evening.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 30 to 40 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

MONDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….86-91. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….6-16 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 25 to 35 mph decreasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….4700 ft agl. Transport winds…..North 10 to 15 knots.
* Ventilation………Good.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER (NVZ465):
SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….71-76. 24 hr trend…..On average down 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….8-13 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 20 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 25 to 35 mph decreasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….6400 ft agl. Transport winds…..North around 10 knots.
* Ventilation………Very good.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: 4000 feet…….42-47. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: 4000 feet…….26-31 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 25 to 35 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

MONDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….77-82. 24 hr trend…..On average up 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….11-15 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 25 to 35 mph becoming north 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….3400 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Marginal.

*La Jolla CA
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 72. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 64. North wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 78. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 64. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast after midnight.

*Poway CA
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 62. East wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 93. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 62. North wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight.

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Sunday through Friday

Accumulating mountain snow will continue Sunday across northern and central Utah. High elevation seasonal roads such as the Mirror Lake Highway and Monte Cristo as well as high mountain passes such as Logan Summit, Sardine Summit and Soldier Summit will continue to see road snow Sunday.

Valley snow accumulations may continue at times through Sunday morning.

Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 51. North northeast wind 8 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 29. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 61. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 33. North northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.

*************************** L.A COUNTY ********************************
…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA…LOS ANGELES…AND VENTURA COUNTIES…AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES…
…ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING…
LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ548):
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..81-87. 24 hr trend……Up 6.
Min humidity……..15-30 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 5.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon, except local north to northeast winds 10-20 mph in the foothills in the morning.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..58-62.
Max humidity……..30-50 percent.
20-foot winds…….East 6-12 mph. Local gusts to 20 mph in the hills.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..86-93.
Min humidity……..10-15 percent.
20-foot winds…….Southeast 5-10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ254):
…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY…
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..71-81 low elevations to 61-68 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Little change.
Min humidity……..8-25 percent. 24 hr trend……Little change.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…North 25-40 mph with gusts to 65 mph in the morning becoming north to northeast 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….North 25-40 mph with gusts to 65 mph in the morning becoming north to northeast 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in the afternoon. Isolated gusts to 75 mph near Whitaker Peak.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..55-62 low elevations to 46-53 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..20-30 percent except 30-40 percent colder valleys.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…North to northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….North to northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..76-86 low elevations to 64-71 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..10-15 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph diminishing to 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph late.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph diminishing to 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph late.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..68-78. 24 hr trend……Little change.
Min humidity……..12-20 percent. 24 hr trend……Little change.
20-foot winds…….Northwest 10-20 mph with local gusts to 25 mph becoming northeast 10-20 mph.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..40-49 except 50-55 in the hills.
Max humidity……..40-60 percent except 30-40 percent in the hills.
20-foot winds…….Northwest 10-20 mph with local gusts to 30 mph in the evening becoming east 6-12 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..73-82.
Min humidity……..10-15 percent.
20-foot winds…….East 6-12 mph becoming northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

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THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
2004: A large winter season storm pummeled Southern California. Not just daily, but monthly record rainfall was received in only one day across the region. The same happened again on 10/27. The monthly record rainfall was exceeded in only six hours in many locations of Orange County on this day. Totals for last two weeks of October were four to eight inches in lower elevations, and up to 14 inches at Lake Arrowhead. On this day a storm wind of 39 mph was measured at Lindbergh Field from the south, the strongest October wind on record. Seven daily rainfall records fell on this day: Palomar Mountain (6.20), Big Bear Lake (3.25 inch), Santa Ana (3.15), Idyllwild (2.65), Campo (2.64), Riverside (2.50), and Vista (1.88). 3.5 inches of snow fell in Idyllwild, the greatest daily amount on record for October. Widespread flooding occurred. A bridge washed out near Wrightwood. One motorist was killed in floodwaters near Lytle Creek. Many mountain roads were impassable with mud and rockslides. Railroad tracks in Fontana washed out, derailing a train. The Santa Ana River flooded, putting horses neck-deep in flood waters in Norco and a rescue was made at a Chino golf course. Several funnel clouds were reported offshore from San Clemente.

1965: A very long heat wave began on this day and ended on 10/29. A peak temperature of 104° was reached at San Diego on 10/22 and 100° in Los Angeles. LA had ten consecutive days with afternoon highs reaching at least 90°.

1957: Widespread thunderstorms developed each day on this day and on 10/21. Hail drifted to 18 inches deep in East LA. Waterspouts were sighted off Point Mugu and Oceanside.

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TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Octave, located over the southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific basin.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located near the west-central coast of Mexico are associated with an area of low pressure area embedded within an elongated surface trough. Some development of this system is possible before it moves inland over west-central Mexico by late Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with this disturbance could produce flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas of mountainous terrain, during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the far southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific basin is also producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow while the it drifts westward during the next few days. This system is expected to move into the central Pacific basin by late Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

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CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0750 Hrs. TEMP: 500 RH: 69% WIND: CALM
0.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
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FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)
Number of Fires and Acres:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2019 through October 13, 2019 4,755 41,204
January 1, 2018 through October 13, 2018 5,011 631,733
5-Year Average (same interval) 4,992 372,066
2019 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 5,819 162,693

Southern California Area (PL 3 )
Unified Command
Saddle Ridge, Vegetation Fire, Los Angeles County, Update
Saddle Ridge Rd, Sylmar
Local DPA, SRA/LRA/FRA, Los Angeles City Fire/ Los Angeles County Fire/ Angeles National Forest, Contract County
• 8,799 acres (+408 acres), grass and brush, 75% contained (+7% containment)
• Unified Command Los Angeles City, Los Angeles County, USFS
• Minimal fire behavior with creeping, and smoldering
• Continued structure threat
• Continued demobilization of equipment
• Continued suppression repair
• Crews continue to improve, reinforce, and strengthen control line
• Federal air and ground resources assigned
State
Briceburg, Vegetation Fire, Mariposa County, Update
Hwy 140 x Briceburg Bridge Rd, 4 miles north of Midpines
State/Federal DPA, SRA/FRA, Madera-Mariposa-Merced Unit/Sierra National Forrest
• 5,563 acres (+0 acres), brush, 98% contained (+0% containment)
• Minimal fire behavior with smoldering
• Continue to improve, reinforce and secure control line
• Federal ground resources assigned
• Incident will submit 1 ICS-209 daily at 1800
Federal
Taboose, Vegetation Fire, Inyo County, Update
9 miles south of Big Pine
Federal/State DPA, FRA/SRA, Inyo National Forest
• 10,400 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 75% contained (+0% containment)
• Area closures remain in effect
• Incident submitting 1 ICS -209 weekly on Thursdays at 1800
Northern California Area (PL 2 )
No Reportable Incidents

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