FIRE WEATHER 10/22/19

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
ALL UNITS From:
EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
Ph: OFFICE:(760) 559-3032
AFTER 2200 HRS CALL (760)-244-9790
RADIO:(HAM) KG6ZHW
COUNTY F.D RADIO: #733784 CALL SIGN: COM-330

Date: 10/22/19

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:154

National Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 3 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
==============================================================================
SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR
MOUNTAINS…VALLEYS…AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY…

Hot and very dry conditions will continue for inland areas today with gusty northeast winds near the coastal slopes of the mountains. There will be a slight recovery in humidity on Wednesday with weaker winds. Stronger offshore flow is expected for Thursday with offshore flow continuing into Friday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop early Thursday for the mountains, valleys, and inland Orange County and continue into Friday. Very low inland humidity will continue for Saturday, but with weaker winds. Onshore flow will return and strengthen on Sunday spreading cooling and higher coastal humidity inland. A low pressure system from the north early next week will bring a slight chance of showers.

Northeast winds of 15-25 with gusts to 40 mph this morning. Light winds in the afternoon which will last through Wednesday across most areas.

· Temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal today with highs in the 90s across the coast and intermediate valleys today. Slightly cooler Wednesday.

· Minimum RH today in the single digits most areas outside the San Joaquin Valley and the mountains above 8,000 feet. Slightly higher readings are expected Wednesday

Main Wind Event…Early Thursday through Friday evening:
• Max Temperatures: 90s in the valleys, foothills and coastal plains (close to 100 Friday)

• Minimum RH: 3-8% Thursday and Friday. Poor recovery Thursday and Friday nights.

o Wind Speeds: Central Coast: 20-40 mph – strongest Thursday. L.A./Ventura Counties: 20-40 mph, gusts 60 mph – strongest Thurs. O.C./Inland Empire: 25-35 mph, gusts 50 mph – strongest Thursday aftn. San Diego County: 25-35 mph, gusts to 50 mph – Strongest Fri. Morning

· Temperatures will cool to near normal by Sunday and Monday and RH will be substantially higher.

·
NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
Dry conditions expected through the week with temperatures slowly climbing to 5-8 degrees above normal through Wednesday. Brief periods of northerly winds expected in the afternoons, but will ramp up on Thursday, particularly down the Colorado River Valley and will die back down for the weekend. Minimum RH values expected to be in the lower teens through the early part of the week before dropping to the single digits on Thursday. This, coupled with the increase of northerly winds could result in increased fire weather concerns. Winds will calm going into the weekend, but single digit RH values will persist.

SPECIAL NOTES:
BI-MONTHLY FUELS DISCUSSION
For Southern and Central California

Updated: Monday, Oct. 21st, 2019

General Discussion:

The long-anticipated change from a progressive pattern into one of sustained blocking finally occurred at the beginning of the month. This result in much warmer and drier weather along with the first significant offshore wind event since 2017. Gusty north and northeast winds of 20-40 mph with gusts exceeding 60 mph occurred over Southern California on the 8th and 9th and again on the 19th and 20th. This, along with above normal temperatures and low afternoon humidity, allowed fuel moisture to further drop across the district. At the current time, all predictive service areas are reporting far below normal dead fuel moisture. Readings are generally in the 90th – 95th percentile in terms of fuel moisture in dead fuels in both Central and Southern CA. Live fuel moisture readings are close to critically low levels in all areas except the immediate coast.

Long range models indicate a strong ridge may remain stationary off the coast through at least the next two weeks. This will serve to keep the storm track well north of the area with hot, dry conditions being the dominant weather condition. Expect strong drying conditions to continue with dead fuel moisture remaining at or below record low fuel moisture readings. Aggressive and rapid rates of spread can be expected with new starts, even during non-windy periods where slope and terrain align. There is a good chance wetting rains will not arrive anytime soon and an extended period of above normal resource demand will be necessary well into November.

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
Local northeast winds will lead to heightened large fire potential today, primarily over L.A. and Ventura Counties. Later this week, there will be a high risk of large fires across the interior valleys, coastal areas and lower foothills due to the weather elements listed above. Fuels are significantly drier going into this wind event than they were 2 weeks ago with dead fuels close to record low readings. Live fuels are all very close to critically dry levels. Look for extreme rates of spread with any new start Thursday and Friday. Fuels will be exceptionally receptive to ignition. Heavy resource demand and IA may be required Thursday through Saturday.

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING

NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to significant
fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

After winds decrease this morning, another round of offshore winds is expected Thursday and Friday. This will be a stronger event with wind gusts of 60 mph possible. It will be extremely hot and dry with highs near 100 and min RH as low as 3%
Zones Oct. 22 Oct. 23 Oct. 24 Oct. 25 Oct. 26 Oct. 27
Zone 1:
LA-Ventura MARGINAL NO RATE MODERATE MODERATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 2:
Orange-Inland Empire NO RATE NO RATE MODERATE MODERATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 3:
San Diego NO RATE NO RATE MODERATE MODERATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 4:
Santa Barbara NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE

————————————————————————-
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..81 to 86. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 1 to 3 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..48 to 58. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Max humidity……..25 to 35 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 2 to 4 mph becoming west around 6 mph after midnight.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..80 to 86. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northeast around 6 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR…
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 70. North wind around 5 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Northwest wind around 5 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 69. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES…
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 70. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 50. North northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 68. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 55. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

*PHELAN:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 79. West wind around 5 mph becoming north in the morning.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56. West wind around 5 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 77. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 54. South wind around 5 mph becoming west after midnight.

TRONA (INDIAN WELLS) (CAZ298):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..79-84. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 degrees.
Min Humidity……..11-18 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-4 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-5 mph in the early morning shifting to the east 3-6 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Fair.
Mixing height…….4100 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 5 mph in the morning shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..53-58. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Max Humidity……..25-35 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-5 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..80-85. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..10-16 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-6 mph in the early morning shifting to the northeast 3-8 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Very good.
Mixing height…….7200 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North 10 to 15 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….85-90. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….9-12 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 20 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….49-54. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….28-33 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Northwest wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 15 to 25 mph becoming north 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….87-92. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….9-12 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

*BAKER:
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 88. North northwest wind 5 to 9 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 52. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 90. North northwest wind 5 to 9 mph.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 53. North northeast wind 6 to 10 mph.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS (CAZ226):
TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….79-84. 7000 feet…….67-72. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….10-13 percent. 7000 feet…….12-20 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 7 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….West 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….43-48. 7000 feet…….27-32. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….32-37 percent. 7000 feet…….35-40 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….80-85. 7000 feet…….65-70. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….11-14 percent. 7000 feet…….17-27 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ299):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..79-84. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-4 degrees.
Min Humidity……..13-23 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-4 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….4700 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..50-55. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Max Humidity……..34-44 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..79-84. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..12-22 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-6 mph in the early morning shifting to the northeast 3-9 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Very good.
Mixing height…….6600 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING…
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..89 to 95. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 11 mph becoming north 6 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..Around 64. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Max humidity……..30 to 40 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 20 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north around 6 mph becoming east around 6 mph after midnight.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..88 to 94. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east around 6 mph becoming north 6 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR…
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 90. North wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 64. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 90. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Windy, with a north wind 10 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

*CHINO HILLS:
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR…
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 92. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 89. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming east in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

*COLTON:
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR…
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 94. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming south in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 64. East wind around 5 mph becoming west after midnight.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255):
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING…
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..64 to 74 above 6000 feet to 74 to 84 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds north 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds north 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..37 to 47 above 6000 feet to 47 to 57 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Max humidity……..15 to 25 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds northeast 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds north 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..63 to 73 above 6000 feet to 75 to 85 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds north 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds north 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR…
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 74. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 73. North wind around 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR…
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 68. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 37. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 68. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

BANNING PASS (CAZ265):
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING…
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..89 to 95. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northeast 6 to 13 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..63 to 69. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Max humidity……..20 to 25 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..89 to 96. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northeast 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ230):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..76-89. 24 hr trend………………4 degrees warmer.
* Min Humidity………………..10-15 pct. 24 hr trend………………3 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………North 10 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather…………………Clear.
* Min Temperature……………..51-61. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Max Humidity………………..21-29 pct. 24 hr trend………………3 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northwest 20 to 30 mph in the evening becoming north 10 to 20 mph after midnight.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..77-89. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..10-15 pct. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….88-93. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….6-16 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 15 to 25 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….4000 ft agl. Transport winds…..North 10 to 15 knots.
* Ventilation………Good.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….54-59. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….29-34 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….89-94. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….6-16 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….5300 ft agl. Transport winds…..North 10 to 15 knots.
* Ventilation………Very good.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER (NVZ465):
TUESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….78-83. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….11-15 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 15 to 25 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….3700 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Marginal.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: 4000 feet…….45-50. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: 4000 feet…….32-37 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….81-86. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….10-15 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 20 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….6700 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Good.

*La Jolla CA
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 76. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 64. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 75. East wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.

*Poway CA
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR…
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 93. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 62. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph after midnight.

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 37. North northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Light northeast wind becoming north 9 to 14 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 30. North wind 8 to 14 mph.

*************************** L.A COUNTY ********************************
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FOR MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY…

…WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITIES…

LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ548):
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE HILLS AND CANYONS…
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..90-96. 24 hr trend……Up 3.
Min humidity……..8-15 percent. 24 hr trend……Little change.
20-foot winds…….Hills and canyons…East 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph through early afternoon. Otherwise…East 5-10 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..59-65.
Max humidity……..30-45 percent.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 6-12 mph early becoming east 5-10 mph late.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..88-96.
Min humidity……..10-20 percent.
20-foot winds…….East 5-10 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ254):
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY…
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..82-92 low elevations to 71-78 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Up 5.
Min humidity……..8-15 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 5.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph becoming 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph late.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph becoming 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph late.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..57-64 low elevations to 49-55 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..20-35 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….North to northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..79-89 low elevations to 68-75 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..8-15 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….North to northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
TUESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..78-86. 24 hr trend……Up 5.
Min humidity……..8-15 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 5.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming northeast 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph by the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..46-56.
Max humidity……..30-50 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph in the evening becoming variable 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..76-85.
Min humidity……..8-12 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

============================================================
THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
2007: Very strong Santa Ana win ds developed on 10/21 and continued through 10/23. A gust of 85 mph was recorded at Fremont Canyon, 79 mph at San Bernardino, 75 mph at Descanso and Mira Loma, 74 mph at Fallbrook and Rancho Cucamonga. Some locations experienced winds at least 45 mph for more than 36 consecutive hours. Winds caused at least $60 million in damage and destruction to buildings, fences, vehicles, etc. The devastating wildfires of 2007 were fanned by these winds. These fires caused one million Californians to evacuate, the largest mass evacuation in California history.

1987: A deep moisture plume called an atmospheric river brought heavy rain to the region. Amounts were as high as five inches at Blue Jay. Heavy rain also occurred in northern San Diego County with 0.95 inch in Palomar Mountain. Flash flooding resulted in two deaths, ten injuries, and more than a million dollars damage in Blue Jay. A 35-foot torrent of water flowed down Yuima Creek on the southern slope of Palomar Mountain through a recent burn scar. Flash flooding and debris/mud flows resulted in Pauma Valley. A building was destroyed and four homes were evacuated.

1976: An isolated and powerful thunderstorm dropped torrential rain on Jamul. 3.84 inches was recorded in four hours from 2 to 6 pm, 1.85 of which occurred between 3 and 4 pm. High runoff produced local flooding.

1974: A weak tornado touched down just northwest of Joshua Tree. Several homes suffered minor damage.

1965: A very long heat wave began on 10/20 and ended on 10/29. A peak temperature of 104° was reached at San Diego on this day, and 100° in Los Angeles. LA had ten consecutive days with afternoon highs reaching at least 90°.

1964: Santa Ana conditions produced a high temperature of 104° at San Diego.

1929: It was 102° in Escondido, the latest date in the season to record 100° or higher.

==================================================================
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

======================================================================
CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0835 Hrs. TEMP: 600 RH: 30% WIND: CALM
0.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
=================================================================
FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 2 )
Large fire activity continues in Arizona, California, Colorado, and Utah. Currently, 12 large fires have burned nearly 52,000 acres. Firefighters continue to make progress toward containment goals on the large fires in California.

Daily statistics 10/22/19
Number of new large fires or emergency response 0 States currently reporting large fires:
Number of active large fires
Total does not include individual fires within complexes. 12 Arizona (1)
California (5)
Colorado (4)
Utah (2)
Acres from active fires 51,982
Fires contained 0
Year-to-date statistics
2019 (1/1/19 – 10/22/19) Fires: 43,921 Acres: 4,470,579
2018 (1/1/18 – 10/22/18) Fires: 50,309 Acres: 8,160,102
2017 (1/1/17 – 10/22/17) Fires: 52,010 Acres: 8,820,787
2016 (1/1/16 – 10/22/16) Fires: 50,093 Acres: 4,995,898
2015 (1/1/15 – 10/22/15) Fires: 52,785 Acres: 9,391,601
2014 (1/1/14 – 10/22/14) Fires: 42,605 Acres: 3,251,289
2013 (1/1/13 – 10/22/13) Fires: 40,531 Acres: 4,155,477
2012 (1/1/12 – 10/22/12) Fires: 50,695 Acres: 8,958,126
2011 (1/1/11 – 10/22/11) Fires: 64,164 Acres: 8,222,809
2010 (1/1/10 – 10/22/10) Fires: 62,223 Acres: 3,059,273
2009 (1/1/09 – 10/22/09) Fires: 73,009 Acres: 5,711,681
10-year average Year-to-Date
2009-2018 Fires: 53,842 Acres: 6,472,704

Initial attack activity: Light (40 new fires)
New large incidents: 0
Large fires contained: 0
Uncontained large fires:*** 5
Area Command teams committed: 0
NIMOs committed: 0
Type 1 IMTs committed: 1
Type 2 IMTs committed: 1

Active Incident Resource Summary
GACC Incidents Cumulative Acres Crews Engines Helicopters Total Personnel
AICC 0 0 0 0 0 0
NWCC 0 0 0 0 0 0
ONCC 1 3,434 3 2 2 140
OSCC 3 14,782 3 21 0 249
NRCC 0 0 0 0 0 0
GBCC 1 2 2 0 0 38
SWCC 0 0 0 0 0 0
RMCC 5 12,103 18 44 9 934
EACC 0 0 0 0 0 0
SACC 5 2,396 1 2 0 40
Total 15 32,717 27 69 11 1,401

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)

Number of Fires and Acres:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2019 through October 13, 2019 4,878 46,996
January 1, 2018 through October 13, 2018 5,155 631,916
5-Year Average (same interval) 5,109 372,344
2019 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 5,980 170,857

Southern California Area (PL 3 )
New fires: 14
New large incidents: 0
Uncontained large fires: 3

Contract County
Saddle Ridge, Vegetation Fire, Los Angeles County, Update
Saddle Ridge Rd, Sylmar
Local DPA, SRA/LRA/FRA, Los Angeles City Fire/ Los Angeles County Fire/ Angeles National Forest, Contract County
• 8,799 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 89% contained (+6% containment)
• Minimal fire behavior with smoldering
• Continued suppression repair
• Crews continue to improve, reinforce, and strengthen control line
• Federal air and ground resources assigned
State
Briceburg, Vegetation Fire, Mariposa County, Update
Hwy 140 x Briceburg Bridge Rd, 4 miles north of Midpines
State/Federal DPA, SRA/FRA, Madera-Mariposa-Merced Unit/Sierra National Forrest
• 5,563 acres (+0 acres), brush, 98% contained (+0% containment)
• Minimal fire behavior
• Continue to improve, reinforce and secure control line
• Federal ground resources assigned
• Incident will submit 1 ICS-209 daily at 1800
Federal
Taboose, Vegetation Fire, Inyo County, Update
9 miles south of Big Pine
Federal/State DPA, FRA/SRA, Inyo National Forest
• 10,400 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 75% contained (+0% containment)
• Area closures remain in effect
• Incident submitting 1 ICS -209 weekly on Thursdays at 1800
Northern California Area (PL 2 )
New fires: 13
New large incidents: 0
Uncontained large fires: 1

The National Weather Service: Eureka, San Francisco and Sacramento has issued a Fire Weather Watch for gusty winds and low humidity causing critical fire weather conditions. The general timeframe starts late Tuesday night and ends on Thursday Afternoon. Numerous Fire Weather Zones in the North Ops Region are predicted to be affected.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *