FIRE WEATHER 10/3/19

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
ALL UNITS From:
EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
Ph: OFFICE:(760) 559-3032
AFTER 2200 HRS CALL (760)-244-9790
RADIO:(HAM) KG6ZHW
COUNTY F.D RADIO: #733784 CALL SIGN: COM-330
Date: 10/3/19

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:135

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 2 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
=================================================================
SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
Mostly weak onshore flow will prevail through Sunday with high pressure to the south bringing a warming trend for Friday through Sunday. A trough of low pressure passing by to the north will bring stronger onshore flow for Monday and Tuesday with gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts during the afternoon and evening with some cooling and higher coastal humidity spreading inland. The flow may turn weakly offshore around Wednesday of next week with lower inland humidity and with gusty northeast winds near the coastal slopes of the mountains.

Temperatures will be near normal through Friday, with 60s to low 70s across the mountains and mid 70s to mid 80s in the valleys.

· Minimum humidity will be mainly between 12% and 25% away from the coastal areas through Friday.

· Southwest to west winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph will surface across the desert passes this afternoon through Friday morning.

· Temperatures will warm to around 5 degrees above normal Saturday through the middle of next week.

· Minimum humidity will drop mainly into the single digits and teens away from the coastal areas Saturday through the middle of next week.

· Winds will be light across the region Friday afternoon through the middle of next week.

· There will be no rainfall across the area through the middle of next week.

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
A trough moving into the west coast will bring some enhanced southwest winds this afternoon. Most areas will see winds between 15-25 mph, but will likely be higher across south central Nevada where winds could occasionally gust to 35 mph. RH values are expected to be in the lower to mid teens. Given the winds being marginal and that fact that critical fuels are not currently widespread enough, decided against any Red Flag Warnings. However, increased awareness will be needed, especially in the southern Great Basin north of I-15 Calmer and mild conditions will return by the weekend.

SPECIAL NOTES:
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA MONTHLY/SEASONAL OUTLOOK
VALID FOR: OCT. 2019 – JANUARY 2020

• Temperatures slightly above normal, especially across inland areas.

• Chance of a delayed start to the “rainy season” with a high likelihood of below normal rainfall this winter, overall.

• Near normal to slightly above number of offshore wind events expected through December.

FUELS AND DROUGHT OUTLOOK

Hot, dry conditions in August and the first part of September caused fuel moisture conditions to drop steeply during the past few weeks. The “cushion” that live fuels had been showing of above normal fuel moisture from last winter’s rains has seemingly disappeared and fuel moisture conditions are trending fairly close to average for this time of year. Dead fuels are a bit drier than average and live fuels are trending pretty close to critically dry levels, so both live and dead fuels will carry fire without hesitation. Fires will grow rapidly during especially hot or windy periods, at least until winter rains arrive.

Since there is a slight majority of long-range models are forecasting below average precipitation this fall/early winter, large fire potential is expected to remain slightly above normal through the fall months into the first part of winter. Large fire potential will likely be highest in the coastal areas which are prone to offshore winds. The number of such events is expected to be close to normal – but even a normal number of windy days would be significantly higher than last fall when very few offshore wind days were experienced. Looking ahead to the winter, there is a growing consensus that this winter may end up being drier than normal. The precipitation deficits this winter may be highest over Southern California with less severely dry conditions across Central CA. Should this prove to be the case, there will likely be drought conditions across part, or perhaps nearly all, of the Geographic Area emerging in the spring. There may also be less water available in reservoirs going into 2020 if snowpack is below normal this year. If this winter ends up being drier and warmer than normal spring, (as suggested by more than one model) the long respite from fires that we saw last December – April is unlikely to repeat this coming winter.

BI-MONTHLY FUELS DISCUSSION
For Southern and Central California
A continuation of the 3-4 day vacillation between hot weather and relatively cool and humid weather was experienced across most of the district during the past two weeks. Several strong ridges built across the western half of the country, but like heatwaves of the past few months, they were short-lived and quickly replaced by troughs entering the Pacific Northwest. One particularly deep trough arriving on the 7th and 8th brought widespread wetting rains to the northern half of the state. Most of the rain stayed north of the district, but a few areas around Yosemite N.P. received some light rainfall.
The rain was far too inconsequential to change fuel moisture conditions and dead fuel moisture is been hovering close to the 90th percentile in terms of dryness. Some of the driest conditions remain over the Sierra Foothills and the central coast interior. The western mountains PSA has also been close to the 95th percentile in the 1,000 hour dead fuel moisture calculations. What’s changed over recent days is the state of the live fuels: some units are reporting live fuel moisture is approaching a critically dry level. The recent spike in wildfire activity which followed the lighting event on the 1st highlighted the quick acceleration in drying conditions.
With this change toward much drier fuels, expect live fuel readily accept flame and allow for rapid rates of spread during peak heating hours or windy periods. These fuels were previously acting as a “buffer” to rapid fire spread, but this will no longer be the case heading into October. Moderate initial attack and resource demand can be expected during most burning periods over the next two weeks. Fortunately, at the time of this writing, no strong offshore winds events appear imminent.

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
Even though it will be very dry over the next week, the potential for large fire will be low due to the absence of significant winds or excessive heat. The dry conditions will allow both the live and dead fuel moisture to decrease substantially over the next week. Expect only light initial attack activity to occur through the middle of next week.

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING

NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to
significant fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

Zones Oct. 3 Oct. 4 Oct. 5 Oct. 6 Oct. 7 Oct. 8
Zone 1:
LA-Ventura NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 2:
Orange-Inland Empire NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 3:
San Diego NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 4:
Santa Barbara NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE

————————————————————————————–
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..79 to 88. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southwest 6 to 13 mph. Gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..45 to 55. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Max humidity……..30 to 40 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..79 to 86. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Min humidity……..5 to 10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 10 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the morning.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 68. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 47. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 68. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming north in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 48. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the morning.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 39. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light southwest in the evening.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Calm wind.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 42. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph.

*PHELAN:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 76. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 51. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the morning.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 52. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

TRONA (INDIAN WELLS) (CAZ298):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..79-84. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-8 degrees.
Min Humidity……..7-12 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….Southwest 3-7 mph in the early morning increasing to 5-17 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….6800 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..West around 5 mph in the morning increasing to southwest around 15 mph in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..48-53. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Max Humidity……..20-30 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….Southwest 5-17 mph in the early evening shifting to the west 3-14 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..77-82. 24 HR Trend……Down 1-3 degrees.
Min Humidity……..7-13 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….West 3-9 mph in the early morning shifting to the south 3-6 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Marginal.
Mixing height…….5400 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 5 mph in the morning shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….88-93. 24 hr trend…..On average up 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….6-11 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….48-53. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….28-33 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 8 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

FRIDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….86-91. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….6-9 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….West wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….West 15 to 25 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

*BAKER:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 90. East southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 56. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 88. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 54. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS (CAZ226):
THURSDAY…Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….78-83. 7000 feet…….65-70. 24 hr trend…..On average up 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….7-9 percent. 7000 feet…….8-17 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
* Upper slopes….Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….41-46. 7000 feet…….21-26. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….17-22 percent. 7000 feet…….28-33 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….West winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the evening.
* Upper slopes….West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 35
mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
* 10000 ft msl….West 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

FRIDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….77-82. 7000 feet…….65-70. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….6-8 percent. 7000 feet…….7-13 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ299):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..77-82. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-5 degrees.
Min Humidity……..11-21 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….West 3-6 mph in the early morning increasing to southwest 4-15 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….6500 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northwest around 5 mph in the morning increasing to southwest around 15 mph in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..46-51. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Max Humidity……..45-55 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 7-13 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 3-14 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..75-80. 24 HR Trend……Down 1-3 degrees.
Min Humidity……..14-24 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 3-11 mph in the early morning decreasing to 3-8 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Fair.
Mixing height…….5400 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northwest around 5 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..79 to 85. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 2 to 5 mph becoming southwest 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY NIGHT…Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..50 to 56. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Max humidity……..55 to 65 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southwest 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the evening becoming variable 2 to 4 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..80 to 86. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 2 to 4 mph becoming west 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 82. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 54. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 82. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 55. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

*CHINO HILLS:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 80. Light south wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 52. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 54. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.

*COLTON:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 85. Light southwest wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 57. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south in the evening.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 85. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 58. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south in the evening.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..61 to 71 above 6000 feet to 67 to 77 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Min humidity….10 to 15 percent on desert slopes to 15 to 20 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds southwest 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds southwest 9 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..36 to 46 above 6000 feet to 41 to 51 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Max humidity…15 to 25 percent on desert slopes to 40 to 50 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND…Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds southwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds southwest 7 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..62 to 72 above 6000 feet to 68 to 78 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Min humidity……..5 to 10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds south 6 to 9 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Gusts to 20 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds southwest 6 to 11 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the morning.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 68. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 48. Southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 69. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 48. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph after midnight.

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 67. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 35. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 69. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 35. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph after midnight.

BANNING PASS (CAZ265):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..90 to 95. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 2 to 5 mph becoming southeast 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..59 to 67. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Max humidity……..20 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 15 mph becoming north 6 to 12 mph after midnight. Gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..91 to 96. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Min humidity……..5 to 10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northwest 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ230):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..76-89. 24 hr trend………………5 degrees warmer.
* Min Humidity………………..11-16 pct. 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 20 to 30 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather…………………Clear.
* Min Temperature……………..50-60. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Max Humidity………………..20-26 pct. 24 hr trend………………3 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 15 to 25 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..76-90. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..7-12 pct. 24 hr trend………………4 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..West 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………West 10 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….92-97. 24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….6-14 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….7000 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds becoming south around 10 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation………Very good.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….59-64. 24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….28-33 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 7 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….South wind up to 10 mph in the evening becoming downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

FRIDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….93-98. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….5-11 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….7100 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds becoming south around 10 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation………Good.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER (NVZ465):
THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….84-89. 24 hr trend…..On average up 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….6-10 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming south 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….7400 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds becoming southeast around 10 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation………Very good.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: 4000 feet…….49-54. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.
* Max humidity: 4000 feet…….25-30 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 6 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph increasing to 25 to 35 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

FRIDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….84-89. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….6-9 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….6400 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Marginal.

*La Jolla CA
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 72. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

*Poway CA
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 56. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 57. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Thursday through Tuesday

Critical Fire Weather conditions are expected Thursday across southwest Utah due to increasing winds and low humidity. Friday, this threat shifts east and includes south central and east central Utah.

Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 73. Southeast wind 15 to 18 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 43. South wind 11 to 14 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 72. South wind around 13 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 35. West wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north northeast after midnight.

*************************** L.A COUNTY ********************************
…ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS…
LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ548):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..76-83. 24 hr trend……Little change.
Min humidity……..20-35 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 6.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..52-62.
Max humidity……..75-90 percent except 45-55 percent in the hills.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph early becoming variable 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..78-86.
Min humidity……..20-30 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ254):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..74-82 low elevations to 64-72 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Little change.
Min humidity……..10-20 percent. 24 hr trend……Little change.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…East 6-12 mph becoming southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….Variable 3-6 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..48-58 low elevations to 38-45 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..25-45 percent except 45-55 percent colder valleys.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening becoming northwest. Strongest through the I-5 Corridor.
Ridges/upr slopes….Southwest 6-12 mph in the evening becoming downslope 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..74-83 low elevations to 64-72 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..10-20 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon. Strongest through the I-5 Corridor.
Ridges/upr slopes….Variable 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..74-84. 24 hr trend……Up 4.
Min humidity……..9-15 percent. 24 hr trend……Little change.
20-foot winds…….West increasing to 6-12 mph then becoming southwest 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..42-52.
Max humidity……..40-55 percent except 30-40 percent in the hills.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the evening becoming west 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph. Isolated gusts to 40 mph near Lake Palmdale.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..74-84.
Min humidity……..8-15 percent.
20-foot winds…….West 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

============================================================
THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
1987: Santa Ana conditions brought extreme heat to the coast. It was 108° in LA on this day and on 10/4, the record high temperature for October. On this day unofficial readings of 109° in El Cajon and 106° in Chula Vista, Fallbrook and Santee were reported. It was officially 104° in San Diego and Vista, and 103° in Santa Barbara. The Vista and Santa Barbara readings represent a monthly high temperature record.

1980: A strong ridge of high pressure brought record heat to the region. It was 101° in Victorville, the highest temperature on record for October. This also occurred two days later on 10/5. It was 115° in Indio and 113° in Borrego Springs. Each is the highest temperature on record for October, and each also occurred the previous day on 10/2. A 103 degree reading in Campo set the monthly high temperature record for October.

1912: A dry spell began in Bagdad on this day lasting 767 days and ended on 11/9/1914. (Southern Pacific RR employees kept this debated record). Strangely, on this same day Palm Springs recorded record rainfall.

==================================================================
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A well-defined low pressure system, located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing several small bands of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while the system moves slowly westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

A small area of low pressure, located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing disorganized showers. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur during the next day or two while the low drifts generally westward and interacts with the larger disturbance located to the east.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

======================================================================
CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0835 Hrs. TEMP: 560 RH: 36% WIND: CALM
0.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
=================================================================
FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 1)
Twenty-six large fires are burning in nine states. Firefighters contained two large fires in Montana and one in Texas
Daily statistics 10/3/19
Number of new large fires or emergency response 1 States currently reporting large fires:
Number of active large fires
Total does not include individual fires within complexes. 26 Alaska (2)
Arizona (5)
California (3)
Colorado (3)
Idaho (8)
Kentucky (2)
Montana (1)
Oregon (1)
Washington (1)
Acres from active fires 257,779
Fires contained 3
Year-to-date statistics
2019 (1/1/19 – 10/3/19) Fires: 40,263 Acres: 4,371,586
2018 (1/1/18 – 10/3/18) Fires: 47,800 Acres: 7,733,612
2017 (1/1/17 – 10/3/17) Fires: 50,018 Acres: 8,426,984
2016 (1/1/16 – 10/3/16) Fires: 45,736 Acres: 4,892,242
2015 (1/1/15 -10/3/15) Fires: 50,384 Acres: 9,092,941
2014 (1/1/14 – 10/3/14) Fires: 41,348 Acres: 2,915,948
2013 (1/1/13 – 10/3/13) Fires: 39,342 Acres: 4,158,517
2012 (1/1/12 – 10/3/12) Fires: 48,724 Acres: 8,794,482
2011 (1/1/11 – 10/3/11) Fires: 61,088 Acres: 7,964,856
2010 (1/1/10 – 10/3/10) Fires: 57,494 Acres: 2,983,704
2009 (1/1/09 – 10/3/09) Fires: 71,634 Acres: 5,672,997
10-year average Year-to-Date
2009-2018 Fires: 51,100 Acres: 6,244,964

Initial attack activity: Light (137 new fires)
New large incidents: 1
Large fires contained: 3
Uncontained large fires:*** 3
Area Command teams committed: 0
NIMOs committed: 0
Type 1 IMTs committed: 1
Type 2 IMTs committed: 0

Active Incident Resource Summary
GACC Incidents Cumulative Acres Crews Engines Helicopters Total Personnel
AICC 1 167,164 0 1 0 8
NWCC 0 0 0 0 0 0
ONCC 1 5,255 1 1 0 56
OSCC 4 10,856 7 21 1 303
NRCC 3 3,470 0 1 0 16
GBCC 1 397 0 10 1 52
SWCC 6 28,009 2 11 2 125
RMCC 2 4,440 8 10 5 269
EACC 0 0 0 0 0 0
SACC 12 1,425 5 15 1 176
Total 30 221,016 23 70 10 1,005

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)
Number of Fires and Acres:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2019 through September 29, 2019 4,467 40,483
January 1, 2018 through September 29, 2018 4,806 627,623
5-Year Average (same interval) 4,743 324,606
2019 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 5,487 157,923

Southern California Area (PL 2 )
New fires: 13
New large incidents: 0
Uncontained large fires: 1

Federal
Ranch, Vegetation Fire, San Luis Obispo County, Update
Pozo Rd x Avenales Ranch Rd, 14 miles E of Pozo
Federal DPA, FRA/SRA, Los Padres National Forest
• 55 acres (+5 acres), grass and brush, 45% contained (+45% containment)
• Forward rate of spread has been stopped
• Fire is in steep terrain
Schaeffer, Vegetation Fire, Tulare County, Update
20 miles north of Kernville
Federal DPA, FRA Sequoia National Forest
• 290 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 50% contained (+0% containment)
• Incident submitting 1 ICS -209 weekly on Thursdays at 1800
Taboose, Vegetation Fire, Inyo County, Update
9 miles south of Big Pine
Federal/State DPA, FRA/SRA, Inyo National Forest
• 10,296 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 75% contained (+0% containment)
• Area closures remain in effect
• Incident submitting 1 ICS -209 weekly on Thursdays at 1800
Northern California Area (PL 2 )
New fires: 7
New large incidents: 0
Uncontained large fires: 0

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *