FIRE WEATHER 10/9/19

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
ALL UNITS From:
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Date: 10/9/19

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:140

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 2 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
==============================================================================
SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY…

Onshore flow will strengthen today, spreading cooling and higher coastal humidity inland with gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts. The onshore will weaken and turn offshore tonight, becoming strong and gusty at times into Friday. The combination of strong wind and low relative humidity will create critical fire weather conditions at times from early Thursday through Friday evening. Lowest daytime humidity will be 5 to 10 percent with poor overnight recovery. Very low relative humidity will continue into Saturday, but with weaker and more localized winds. There will be a slow recovery in humidity for Sunday and Monday. Warm west of the mountains Thursday and Friday, then cooler through the weekend.
Cooler today and Thursday with highs dropping into the 50s in the mountains to the 70s at lower elevations. Temperatures over Southern CA will warm back into the 80s and lower 90s due to offshore flow Friday and Saturday.

· Period of strongest winds…Today-Thurs. Morning: Sierras, Sierra Foothills, Kern Co. Thurs-Fri: Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange & Inland Empire. Friday: San Diego County

· Strongest wind speeds…. Sierras, Sierra Foothills: 15-25 mph, gusts 35 mph Kern County Mtns: 20-30 mph, gusts 50 mph. Central Coast: 10-20 mph, gusts to 30 mph. Southern CA: 25-35 mph, gusts to 70 mph

· *Possible Locations of Strongest Winds: Today: Kern County Mountains Thursday: Northern L.A. County, Ventura Co, Cajon Pass Friday: Banning Pass, Santa Ana Canyon, San Diego Co.

· Minimum humidity will drop into the 5-10% range across Southern CA Thursday into Saturday. Central CA will see readings in the teens. Very poor recovery Thursday and Friday nights all areas.

· Higher RH/Cooler weather first part of next week, but no precipitation in forecast next 10 days.

Strong Winds – Desert Mountain Slopes and Deserts
High Confidence Gusty west to northwest winds

Details
– What: West to northwest winds of 15-20 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph.
Local gusts to 50 mph. Strongest winds will be on Wednesday. Dry
conditions will lead to elevated fire weather conditions, mainly on the
desert slopes of the mountains.
– Where: Desert mountain slopes and deserts. Strongest winds below the
San Gorgonio Pass and the desert slopes of the San Diego County
Mountains.
– When: Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Strongest winds
Wednesday afternoon.

Critical Fire Weather – Mountains, Valleys, Orange County, Coachella Valley
High Confidence
Moderate to strong east to northeast winds and extremely low
Humidity

Details
– What: East to northeast winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph and isolated gusts to 70 mph combined with extremely low humidity will create critical fire weather conditions . Daytime humidity will be 5-10% with
poor overnight recovery, especially in the wind prone areas. Winds weaken substantially on Saturday, but very dry conditions will continue through the weekend.

– Where: Mountains, Valleys, Orange County, and Coachella Valley.
Strongest winds in below the Cajon and San Gorgonio passes and northern portions of the Santa Ana Mountains.

– When: Thursday and Friday. Strongest winds Thursday morning in San
Bernardino, Riverside, and Orange Counties. Winds peak Thursday night to Friday morning in San Diego County

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TODAY TO 5 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEVADA FOR STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS…

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM PDT /2 PM MST/ TODAY TO 11 AM PDT /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FOR STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS

Strong north winds and low relative humidity will develop over southern Nevada and surrounding states this afternoon through Thursday behind a fast moving dry cold front. This will lead to critical fire weather conditions for parts of the region though high temperatures will fall about 20 degrees between Wednesday and Thursday. The strongest winds can be expected along the Colorado River Valley…especially between Lake Mohave and
Lake Havasu where gusts of 45 to 60 mph are possible. Minimum RH`s will remain below 15 percent across the region with little night time relief. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of the southern NV zones including zones 460, 461, 462, 463, 464, and 465, as well as the Lower Colorado River Valley
which include AZ 101, NV 466, and CA 229. The Red Flag Warning will be in effect 2PM this afternoon through 5PM Thursday for southern NV zones. Wind are expected to remain elevated down the
Colorado River Valley through Friday morning where the Red Flag Warning will be in effect through 11AM Friday.

CHANGES SINCE PREVIOUS BRIEFING
No significant changes. Strong winds s_ll expected to develop this a􀅌ernoon and remain through Thursday. A significant temperature drop is also expected.

CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS
Southern Nevada/Northwest Arizona/Southeast California
HIGH Confidence
Dangerous boating conditions due to strong winds and significant wave activity from Lake Mead to
Lake Havasu.
Extreme fire behavior and rapid fire growth for parts of southern NV/northwest AZ especially along
the Colorado River Valley.
Hazardous crosswinds on east-west oriented roads, especially for high profile vehicles.

Details:
WINDS
Wind Advisory in effect from 2PM TODAY – 5PM THU for southern NV & portions of southeast CA and for the Colorado River Valley & portions of eastern San Bernardino County from 2PM TODAY – 11AM FRI.
Gusty north winds of 35 to 45 mph will spread across the region this afternoon through Thursday. Strongest winds will be down the Colorado River Valley and far eastern San Bernardino County where wind gusts to 50-55 mph will be possible WED night through Friday morning.

FIRE WEATHER
Red Flag Warning will be in effect for southern NV from 2PM TODAY-5PM FRI & for the Colorado River Valley from 2PM TODAY
– 11AM FRI.
Single digit RH’s & strong north winds will lead to critical fire weather concerns.

TEMPS
High temps will drop about 20 degrees from today to Thursday. Record low minimum temperatures possible Friday morning.

SPECIAL NOTES:

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
Large fire potential will be elevated today over the Central CA due to gusty, erratic NW wind and lowering RH. But across South Ops Geographical Area, the highest large fire potential will be across Southern CA due to very strong winds and single digit RH. Dead fuel moisture is in the 90-95th percentile and live fuels are critically dry. The combination of the two will result in a high large fire potential with any new start exhibiting extreme fire behavior. Strong winds Thurs and Friday may also impede air operations, causing tactical difficulties in sizing up new starts and limiting the amount of air resources available. IA will be heavy through Saturday, then lighter demand is expected next week

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING
NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to
significant fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

Zones Oct. 9 Oct. 10 Oct. 11 Oct. 12 Oct. 13 Oct. 14
Zone 1:
LA-Ventura NO RATE MODERATE MODERATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 2:
Orange-Inland Empire NO RATE MODERATE MODERATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 3:
San Diego NO RATE MARGINAL MODERATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 4:
Santa Barbara NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE

————————————————————————————–
RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY

APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..79 to 88. 24 HR TREND……Down 6 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 8 to 18 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..40 to 48. 24 HR TREND……Down 13 degrees.
Max humidity……..35 to 45 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 7 to 17 mph with gusts to 35 mph becoming north 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph after midnight.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..64 to 70. 24 HR TREND……Down 14 degrees.
Min humidity……..5 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 15 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northeast 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
Red Flag Warning in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 06:00 PM PDT
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 68. West wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 28. West wind around 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 55. Northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 33. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
High Wind Watch in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 03:00 PM PDT
Red Flag Warning in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 06:00 PM PDT
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 59. West southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 36. Windy, with a west northwest wind 10 to 20 mph becoming north northeast 25 to 35 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 53. Very windy, with a northeast wind 35 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 35. Windy.

*PHELAN:
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 76. West wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 40. West wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 62. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight

TRONA (INDIAN WELLS) (CAZ298):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..81-86. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-8 degrees.
Min Humidity……..9-17 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 16-28 mph.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….7500 ft AGL.
Transport Winds…..West 15 to 20 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..45-50. 24 HR Trend……Down 6-16 degrees.
Max Humidity……..20-30 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-4 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 14-26 mph in the early evening becoming north 7-19 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..64-69. 24 HR Trend……Down 11-23 degrees.
Min Humidity……..7 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-9 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….North 5-15 mph in the early morning shifting to the northeast 8-15 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Excellent. Mixing height…….5200 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast 25 to 30 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
WEDNESDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny. Patchy blowing dust in the afternoon.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….90-95. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….8-11 percent. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….West wind 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….West 25 to 35 mph decreasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Clear. Patchy blowing dust.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….44-49. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 12 degrees.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….17-22 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 10 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….North wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 45 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….West 10 to 15 mph increasing to northwest 15 to 20 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny. Patchy blowing dust.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….71-76. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 19 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….5-8 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Northeast wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 45 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 20 to 30 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.

*BAKER:
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM PDT /2 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY
Wednesday
Patchy blowing dust after 2pm. Sunny, with a high near 94. South wind 5 to 11 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Patchy blowing dust. Clear, with a low around 53. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.
Thursday
Patchy blowing dust. Sunny, with a high near 73. North northeast wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Thursday Night
Patchy blowing dust. Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS (CAZ226):
WEDNESDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….82-87. * 7000 feet…….68-73. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….7-10 percent. * 7000 feet…….10-20 percent. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north with gusts to around 35 mph in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 45 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 35 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….West 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Mostly clear. Patchy blowing dust after midnight.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….33-38. * 7000 feet…….17-22. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 12 degrees.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….22-27 percent. * 7000 feet…….30-35 percent. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….65-70. * 7000 feet…….54-59. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 18 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….5-7 percent. * 7000 feet…6-12 percent. * 24 hr trend..On average down 4 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ299):
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..78-83. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-9 degrees.
Min Humidity……..18-28 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-5 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 6-18 mph in the early morning increasing to 11-23 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….5600 ft AGL.
Transport Winds…..West around 15 mph in the morning increasing to around 30 mph in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..44-49. 24 HR Trend……Down 7-13 degrees.
Max Humidity……..35-45 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-4 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 9-21 mph in the early evening becoming northeast 3-14 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..63-68. 24 HR Trend……Down 10-20 degrees.
Min Humidity……..6-13 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 6-12 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 6-15 mph in the early morning increasing to 11-17 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….4700 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast 25 to 30 mph. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
Red Flag Warning in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 06:00 PM PDT
.WEDNESDAY…Sky/weather………Partly cloudy…becoming mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning.
Max temperature…..75 to 81. 24 HR TREND……Down 7 degrees.
Min humidity……..30 to 40 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 20 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southwest 6 to 11 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..48 to 55. 24 HR TREND……Down 4 degrees.
Max humidity……..80 to 90 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds south 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming north 8 to 18 mph with gusts to 35 mph after midnight.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny. Areas of blowing dust in the morning. Areas of blowing dust in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..73 to 81. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Min humidity……..5 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 30 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 17 to 27 mph with gusts to 50 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
Red Flag Warning in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 06:00 PM PDT
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 77. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Windy, with a light and variable wind becoming north 25 to 30 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.
Thursday
Areas of blowing dust. Sunny, with a high near 72. Windy, with a north wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph.
Thursday Night
Areas of blowing dust. Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Windy, with a north wind 30 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph

*CHINO HILLS:
Red Flag Warning in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 06:00 PM PDT
Wednesday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 79. Northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Breezy, with an east wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

*COLTON:
Red Flag Warning in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 06:00 PM PDT
Wednesday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 80. Light southwest wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming north after midnight.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a north wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. North wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255):
Red Flag Warning in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 06:00 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..61 to 71 above 6000 feet to 67 to 77 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 3 degrees.
Min humidity….10 to 15 percent on desert slopes to 15 to 25 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND…Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds west 8 to 18 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds west 14 to 24 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..25 to 35 above 6000 feet to 32 to 42 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 11 degrees.
Max humidity…25 to 35 percent on desert slopes to 65 to 75 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND…Up 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds west 7 to 17 mph becoming north 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Gusts to 40 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds northwest 13 to 23 mph. Gusts to 45 mph…becoming 35 mph after midnight.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..50 to 60 above 6000 feet to 59 to 69 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 19 degrees.
Min humidity……..5 to 10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds northeast 14 to 24 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds north 12 to 21 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
Red Flag Warning in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 06:00 PM PDT
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 66. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 40. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 56. Windy, with a northeast wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 42. Breezy, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
Red Flag Warning in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 06:00 PM PDT
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 67. Southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 54. Northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

BANNING PASS (CAZ265):
Red Flag Warning in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 06:00 PM PDT
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny. Areas of blowing sand and blowing dust in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..83 to 93. 24 HR TREND……Down 7 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 13 to 23 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Sky/weather………Mostly clear. Areas of blowing sand and blowing dust.
Min temperature…..54 to 61. 24 HR TREND……Down 8 degrees.
Max humidity……..30 to 40 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 13 to 23 mph with gusts to 45 mph becoming north 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph after midnight.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny. Areas of blowing sand and blowing dust.
Max temperature…..74 to 81. 24 HR TREND……Down 11 degrees.
Min humidity……..5 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 22 to 32 mph with gusts to 60 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ230):
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING…

.WEDNESDAY… * Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..75-91. * 24 hr trend………………3 degrees cooler.
* Min Humidity………………..11-19 pct. * 24 hr trend………………4 pct wetter.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………West 10 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * Sky/weather…………………Clear. Patchy blowing dust.
* Min Temperature……………..46-59. * 24 hr trend………………6 degrees cooler.
* Max Humidity………………..22-40 pct. * 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph in the evening becoming northwest 20 to 30 mph after midnight.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………West 15 to 25 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/weather…………………Sunny. Patchy blowing dust.
* Max Temperature……………..60-73. * 24 hr trend………………17 degrees cooler.
* Min Humidity………………..6-11 pct. * 24 hr trend………………6 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Breezy. North 20 to 30 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………North 20 to 30 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM PDT /2 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS…

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM PDT /2 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY
.WEDNESDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny. Patchy blowing dust in the afternoon.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….94-99. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….4-12 percent. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….South wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….10500 ft agl. * Transport winds…..South 10 to 15 knots. * Ventilation………Excellent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Clear. Patchy blowing dust.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….48-53. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 14 degrees.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….16-21 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north 15 to 25 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 50 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….West 15 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny. Patchy blowing dust.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….75-80. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 19 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….3-11 percent. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….North wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 45 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 35 to 45 mph decreasing to 30 to 40 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….5300 ft agl. * Transport winds…..North around 25 knots. * Ventilation………Excellent.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER (NVZ465):
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM PDT /2 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY
TO 11 AM PDT /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTH
WINDS…

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM PDT /2 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY TO
11 AM PDT /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY
.WEDNESDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny. Patchy blowing dust in the afternoon.
* Max temperature: * 4000 feet…….86-91. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: * 4000 feet…….8-11 percent. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west around 10 mph with gusts to around 30 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….West 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….8300 ft agl. * Transport winds…..Light winds. * Ventilation………Good.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Mostly clear. Patchy blowing dust.
* Min temperature: * 4000 feet…….41-46. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 11 degrees.
* Max humidity: * 4000 feet…….17-22 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 15 to 25 mph increasing to 35 to 45 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny. Patchy blowing dust.
* Max temperature: * 4000 feet…….64-69. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 22 degrees.
* Min humidity: * 4000 feet…….7-10 percent. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 35 to 45 mph decreasing to 30 to 40 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….6300 ft agl. * Transport winds…..North around 15 knots. * Ventilation………Excellent.

*La Jolla CA
Wednesday
Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 58. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming southeast after midnight.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 72. East wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 63. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

*Poway CA
Red Flag Warning in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 06:00 PM PDT
Wednesday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 82. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 61. East wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Wednesday through Monday

Much colder temperatures will arrive across Utah Wednesday as a powerful cold front crosses the region.

Strong winds are expected behind the cold front across much of the state. The highest winds will be across downslope areas of the western Uinta Basin, north-south canyon exits in Washington County, Castle Country and northern Utah County.

Light snow accumulations are possible across much of northern Utah Wednesday.

Expect all locations except Utahs Dixie to experience a hard freeze by late this week. Winterize sprinkler systems, RVs, swap coolers and remove hoses from frost free hose bibs to protect property.

Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 68. South wind 10 to 16 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 24. North wind 8 to 17 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 40. North wind 8 to 13 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 20. North wind 6 to 14 mph

*************************** L.A COUNTY ********************************
RED FLAG WARNING OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
FOR EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO GUSTY SANTA
ANA WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY…

LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ548):
Red Flag Warning in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 06:00 PM PDT
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny except areas of morning low clouds and fog.
Max temperature…..70-77. 24 hr trend……Down 9.
Min humidity……..45-60 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 20.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..1600 ft asl.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..51-57.
Max humidity……..80-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….Hills and canyons…Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph late.Otherwise…West 8-15 mph in the evening becoming east 5-10 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..75-81.
Min humidity……..4-9 percent.
20-foot winds…….Hills and canyons…Northeast 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.Otherwise…East 6-12 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ254):
High Wind Watch in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 03:00 PM PDT
Red Flag Warning in effect from October 10, 03:00 AM PDT until October 11, 06:00 PM PDT
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..70-78 low elevations to 61-68 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Down 8.
Min humidity……..30-45 percent except 20-30 percent higher peaks and warmer valleys. 24 hr trend……Up 13.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…West 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northwest 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..44-50 low elevations to 36-42 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..35-55 percent except 80-100 percent colder valleys.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…Northwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the evening becoming northeast 20-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….North 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the evening becoming north to northeast 20-35 mph with gusts to 60 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..63-73 low elevations to 53-60 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..5-10 percent.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 25-45 mph with gusts to 70 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 25-45 mph with gusts to 70 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..75-83. 24 hr trend……Down 6.
Min humidity……..10-20 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 6.
20-foot winds…….West 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph becoming 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..36-45. Max humidity……..40-60 percent.
20-foot winds…….West 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph in the evening becoming northeast 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..60-68.
Min humidity……..3-8 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph becoming 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph by noon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

============================================================
THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
2015: The afternoon high temperature reached 106° in Santa Ana, tying a daily high temperature record for the month. This also occurred on 10/16/1958.

1986: Thunderstorms that started on this day and ended on 10/10 dropped 2.40 inches of rain on Mt. Laguna, 2.10 inches at Campo, 2.03 inches at Julian, 1.90 inches at El Cajon, 1.50 inches at Alpine, 1.39 inches at San Diego, and 0.41 inch at Miramar. Most of these became daily rainfall records. Hail the size of marbles was reported in San Diego’s east county. Rainwater flooded through a leaky roof at downtown San Diego police headquarters. Numerous streets flooded in south and east parts of San Diego County. Power outages occurred from lightning strikes.

1982: Santa Ana winds gusted to 60 mph. A major wildfire moved across the Santa Monica Mountains.

1976: It was 100° in Long Beach, 99° in Santa Ana, 98° in LA, and 94° in Laguna Beach. This was the hottest day of the year in the LA region (a rather late occurrence).

1943: An incredible thunderstorm complex brought 3.90 inches of rain to Twentynine Palms in about three hours. Flash floods and debris flows blocked roadways and trapped vehicles. One house was seriously damaged.
==================================================================
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

======================================================================
CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0730 Hrs. TEMP: 600 RH: 46% WIND: NE 7 G 18
0.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
=================================================================
FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 1)
Wildland fire activity remains light throughout the country. Five new large fires were reported and three contained. Seventeen large fires have burned over 230,000 acres.

Initial attack activity: Light (104 new fires)
New large incidents: 0
Large fires contained: 1
Uncontained large fires:*** 5
Area Command teams committed: 0
NIMOs committed: 0
Type 1 IMTs committed: 1
Type 2 IMTs committed: 1

Daily statistics 10/8/19
Number of new large fires or emergency response 5 States currently reporting large fires:
Number of active large fires
Total does not include individual fires within complexes. 17 Alabama (1)
Alaska (2)
Arizona (3)
California (2)
Colorado (3)
Idaho (2)
Kentucky (2)
Texas (1)
Washington (1)
Acres from active fires 231,701
Fires contained 3
Year-to-date statistics
2019 (1/1/19 – 10/8/19) Fires: 41,942 Acres: 4,395,982
2018 (1/1/18 – 10/8/18) Fires: 48,657 Acres: 8,146,460
2017 (1/1/17 – 10/8/17) Fires: 50,474 Acres: 8,474,971
2016 (1/1/16 – 10/8/16) Fires: 46,786 Acres: 4,741,674
2015 (1/1/15 – 10/8/15) Fires: 51,023 Acres: 9,190,152
2014 (1/1/14 – 10/8/14) Fires: 41,616 Acres: 6,064,007
2013 (1/1/13 – 10/8/13) Fires: 39,601 Acres: 4,161,919
2012 (1/1/12 – 10/8/12) Fires: 49,477 Acres: 8,831,685
2011 (1/1/11 – 10/8/11) Fires: 61,868 Acres: 8,275,025
2010 (1/1/10 – 10/8/10) Fires: 57,000 Acres: 3,106,559
2009 (1/1/09 – 10/8/09) Fires: 70,476 Acres: 5,667,262
10-year average Year-to-Date
2009-2018 Fires: 51,698 Acres: 6,665,971

Active Incident Resource Summary
GACC Incidents Cumulative Acres Crews Engines Helicopters Total Personnel
AICC 0 0 0 0 0 0
NWCC 1 8,743 2 10 0 83
ONCC 1 532 4 5 0 88
OSCC 2 2,050 36 63 3 1,080
NRCC 1 60 0 0 0 1
GBCC 1 100 0 0 0 5
SWCC 2 2,466 1 5 1 57
RMCC 2 7,443 34 34 14 1,087
EACC 0 0 0 0 0 0
SACC 14 4,483 5 15 0 158
Total 24 25,877 82 132 18 2,559

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)
Number of Fires and Acres:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2019 through October 6, 2019 4,609 40,712
January 1, 2018 through October 6, 2018 4,900 627,577
5-Year Average (same interval) 4,873 325,411
2019 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 5,657 157,981

Southern California Area (PL 2 )
State
Briceburg, Vegetation Fire, Mariposa County, Update
Hwy 140 x Briceburg Bridge Rd, 4 miles north of Midpines
State/Federal DPA, SRA/FRA, Madera-Mariposa-Merced Unit/Sierra National Forrest
• 2000 acres (+800 acres), brush, 10% contained (+0% containment)
• Active fire behavior with uphill runs and spotting
• 60 kV power lines threatened
• Evacuation orders remain in place for Briceburg Campground
• Evacuation warnings for Rancheria Creek Rd, Rumley Mine Rd, and Colorado Rd
• Hwy 140 remains closed from Briceburg Rd to West of Incline
• Main entrance to communities of El Portal and Yosemite National Park remain closed
• Structures threatened
• Federal air and ground resources assigned

Federal
Taboose, Vegetation Fire, Inyo County, Update
9 miles south of Big Pine
Federal/State DPA, FRA/SRA, Inyo National Forest
• 10,296 acres (+0 acres), grass and brush, 75% contained (+0% containment)
• Area closures remain in effect
• Incident submitting one ICS -209 weekly on Thursdays at 1800
Northern California Area (PL 2 )
No Reportable Incidents
The National Weather Service – has issued numerous Red Flag Warnings for much of the North Ops Region for strong gusty winds and low humidity. The Red Flag Warnings will be in effect from Wednesday through Thursday. Please use the following link for further details on your area. Link

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