FIRE WEATHER 11/16/19

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
ALL UNITS From:
EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
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COUNTY F.D RADIO: #733784 CALL SIGN: COM-330

Date: 11/16/19

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:179

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 2 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
==============================================================================
SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
Very low Relative Humidity away from the coast today and Sunday…

…Isolated gusty Santa Ana winds tonight through Sunday morning…

Offshore winds will develop in foothills and adjacent valleys later this morning with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Relative humidity falling into the teens in valleys and deserts as winds decrease some during the afternoon. Winds increase and become a little more widespread Sunday morning with gusts 30 to 40 mph, and relative humidity falling to as low as 10 percent Sunday morning. Very isolated critical fire weather conditions in the foothills Sunday. Light winds but continued very warm and dry for Monday. Much higher humidity and precipitation is expected Tuesday night through Thursday night.

Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph will surface across the mountains and below the canyons and passes of Southern California through Sunday morning.

· These northeast winds will decrease to 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph and become more localized Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

· Winds will become light by Monday afternoon.

· Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal through Monday, with mid 60s to mid 70s across the mountains and upper 70s and 80s in the valleys.

· Minimum humidity will be mainly in the single digits and teens through Monday.

· Substantial cooling will occur both Tuesday and Wednesday.

· Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal Wednesday and Thursday.

· South to west winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph will surface across the wind prone mountain and desert areas Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.

· Showers with light to moderate rainfall amounts will move across the area Tuesday night through Thursday night.

· The snow level will be around 6,000 feet.

· A little warming will take place Friday, but temperatures will still be 5 to 10 degrees below normal

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
Weekend winds look to be generally out of the north with mild breezes, especially along the Colorado River Valley and far eastern Lincoln counties. However, Min RH values will likely only reach critical values briefly and in the the Mojave desert locations primarily. Could briefly see some elevated fire weather conditions for the Colorado River Valley but no expectation for a RFW at this time.

The more significant news is the prospect for widespread, and much needed, wetting rains in the forecast beginning possibly as early as late Tuesday night and persisting through at least Thursday night, and possibly Friday.

KEY POINTS
A change in the weather pattern is expected midweek, which will bring a chance for widespread rain and high elevation snow. While
confidence is low in the details, there is increasing confidence that there will be precipitation impacts from rain and mountain snow for the
second half of the work week.

CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS
Midweek Weather System
MODERATE Confidence Hazardous travel conditions due to slick roadways.
Moderate to heavy rain leading to minor nuisance flooding.

LOW Confidence
Heavy rain leading to flash flooding.
Travel delays at McCarran International Airport due to low clouds and rain.
Hazardous travel conditions due to slick, snowy roads above 6000 ft

Details:
TIMING: Moderate Confidence
Precipitation will overspread the area Tuesday night-Wednesday
Best chance for precipitation: Wednesday afternoon-Thursday morning
Precipitation will linger into Thursday
Low confidence in end time as precipitation may linger into Friday

IMPACTS: Low-Moderate Confidence
Heavy rain & flooding is possible, especially south and east of I-15.
Lesser precipitation amounts expected through Inyo, Esmerelda, and Nye counties.
Potential for first significant accumulating snow in the Spring Mountains- however low confidence in snowfall timing and amounts.
Area of higher potential impacts may shift over the next few days as details become more clear. STAY TUNED!

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
The potential for large fire will be elevated across Southern California through Monday due to gusty winds, warm temperatures, low humidity, and record dry fuels. Rapid rates of spread and long range spotting will be likely on new ignitions in windy areas. The large fire threat will become low Tuesday as significant cooling and a substantial increase in humidity occurs. Expect moderate initial attack activity through Monday and then light IA activity Tuesday. No fire activity is anticipated across the region Wednesday through the end of next week due to showery conditions. Wetting rains will cause a substantial increase in the dead fuel moisture starting the middle of next week

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING
Offshore winds will develop throughout the day with the strongest winds occurring in the mountains of LA County. Gusty winds up to 40 mph will be possible with minimum RH in the single digits. Expect some wind gusts to 50 mph Sunday morning before winds weaken in the afternoon

NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to significant fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

Zones Nov. 16 Nov. 17 Nov. 18 Nov. 19 Nov. 20 Nov. 21
Zone 1:
LA-Ventura MARGINAL MODERATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 2:
Orange-Inland Empire NO RATE MARGINAL NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 3:
San Diego MARGINAL MARGINAL NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 4:
Santa Barbara NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE

————————————————————————-
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..72 to 77. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northeast 6 to 9 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..40 to 50. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Max humidity……..30 to 40 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northeast around 6 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..74 to 79. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northeast 6 to 8 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 60. Light northeast wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 62. North wind around 5 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER VENTURA COUNTY AND THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOME VALLEYS…
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 67. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

*PHELAN:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 69. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. West wind around 5 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 71. West wind around 5 mph becoming north in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming north after midnight.

TRONA (INDIAN WELLS) (CAZ298):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..72-77. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-5 degrees.
Min Humidity……..12-18 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-5 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 3-10 mph.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….6600 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 15 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..45-50. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 degrees.
Max Humidity……..27-37 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-8 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-6 mph in the early evening shifting to the southeast.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..73-78. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..11-17 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….East 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….4100 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast around 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
SATURDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….78-83. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….11-14 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….44-49. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….29-34 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….78-83. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….10-13 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast 15 to 20 mph becoming 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

*BAKER:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 81. North wind 6 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night
Clear, with a low around 45. North wind around 7 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 80. North wind around 8 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS (CAZ226):
SATURDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….72-77. 7000 feet…….58-63. 24 hr trend…..On average up 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….12-18 percent. 7000 feet…….17-27 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Upper slopes….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….35-40. 7000 feet…….25-30. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….38-43 percent. 7000 feet…….35-40 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 9 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Upper slopes….North winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….73-78. 7000 feet…….61-66. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….11-16 percent. 7000 feet…….13-22 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ299):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..71-76. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-8 degrees.
Min Humidity……..13-23 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 5-11 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 3-10 mph.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….6000 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..44-49. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-4 degrees.
Max Humidity……..31-41 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 8-18 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..73-78. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 degrees.
Min Humidity……..11-21 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 3-9 mph.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….4000 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast around 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..80 to 86. 24 HR TREND……Up 10 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 6 to 15 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..46 to 56. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Max humidity……..30 to 40 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 60 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..83 to 90. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 6 to 16 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 83. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 65. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

*CHINO HILLS:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 84. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56. East wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 88. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Light east wind increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

*COLTON:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 85. Light north wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 89. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..55 to 65 above 6000 feet to 65 to 75 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 10 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds east 6 to 13 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Gusts to 30 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds northeast 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..29 to 39 above 6000 feet to 44 to 54 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Max humidity……..20 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds northeast 8 to 18 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds northeast 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..58 to 68 above 6000 feet to 69 to 79 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds east 6 to 16 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds east 6 to 16 mph. Gusts to 35 mph…becoming 25 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 65. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 68. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the evening.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 59. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 29. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 62. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

BANNING PASS (CAZ265):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..84 to 89. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..54 to 64. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Max humidity……..20 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..85 to 90. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northwest 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ230):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather…………………Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..69-81. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..13-18 pct. 24 hr trend………………4 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Light and variable in the morning becoming northeast 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather…………………Clear.
* Min Temperature……………..47-58. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Max Humidity………………..23-33 pct. 24 hr trend………………7 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northeast 10 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..70-81. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..11-16 pct. 24 hr trend………………3 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northeast 10 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
SATURDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….82-87. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….8-18 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….5800 ft agl. Transport winds…..North 10 to 20 knots.
* Ventilation………Very good.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….47-52. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….31-36 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….80-85. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….8-18 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….3200 ft agl. Transport winds…..North 10 to 20 knots.
* Ventilation………Good.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER (NVZ465):
SATURDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….75-80. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….11-15 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 15 mph becoming 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….4700 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Fair.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: 4000 feet…….40-45. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: 4000 feet…….36-41 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….72-77. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….11-16 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….3100 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Marginal.

*La Jolla CA
Saturday
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 62. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

*Poway CA
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 91. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 59. East wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Saturday through Thursday

There is a potential for a heavy precipitation event next Wednesday through next Friday across southern and portions of central Utah. As the details currently stand, locally heavy rainfall can be expected across the valleys. At higher elevations, significant snowfall can be expected, especially between the Pine Valley Mountains and Boulder Summit. Continue to monitor weather information as the event nears for further updates.

Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 61. Light and variable wind becoming north 8 to 13 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night
Clear, with a low around 27. North northeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming southwest in the evening.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 60. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 29. East northeast wind 3 to 6 mph.

*************************** L.A COUNTY ********************************
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER VENTURA COUNTY AND THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOME VALLEYS…

…WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY…

…POTENTIAL MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…
LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ548):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..82-89. 24 hr trend……Up 15.
Min humidity……..15-25 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 36.
20-foot winds…….Hills and canyons, East 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Otherwise…Northeast 5-10 mph.
Marine layer……..800 ft asl. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..52-62.
Max humidity……..55-70 percent except 30-40 percent in the hills.
20-foot winds…….Hills and canyons, East 6-12 mph becoming 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph after midnight. Otherwise…Northeast 5-10 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..86-93.
Min humidity……..8-15 percent.
20-foot winds…….Hills and canyons, East 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming 6-12 mph late. Otherwise…Northeast 5-10 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ254):
…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY…
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..74-84 low elevations to 63-70 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Up 8.
Min humidity……..10-20 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 8.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..55-65 low elevations to 43-50 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..15-25 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph becoming 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph after midnight.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph becoming 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph after midnight.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..76-86 low elevations to 65-72 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..8-15 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph becoming 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph late.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph becoming 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph late.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..72-80. 24 hr trend……Up 5.
Min humidity……..8-12 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 5.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph by the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..37-46 except 50-55 in the hills.
Max humidity……..30-45 percent except 20-30 percent in the hills.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening becoming 5-10 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..72-80.
Min humidity……..6-10 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 5-10 mph becoming 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph by the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

============================================================
THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
2008: Santa Ana winds blew from 11/15 to 11/19. Winds gusted over 70 mph in the Santa Ana Mountains and over 60 mph in the northern Inland Empire. The Freeway Complex Fire burned from Corona through Chino Hills and Yorba Linda. Due to the fire 40,000 people were evacuated and State Routes 91, 71, and 57 were temporarily closed. Ultimately the fire would burn 30,305 acres, 361 structures and injure 14 firefighters.

1989: A high temperature of 85° tied for the highest November temperature on record at Lake Cuyamaca. This also occurred on 11/10/1963.

1971: Poway Creek flooded Poway.

1964: It was 17° in Palomar Mountain, the lowest temperature on record for November. This also occurred on this day in 1958 and on 11/29/1975.

1958: Borrego Springs recorded a trace of snowfall, the earliest snowfall on record and the only November snowfall on record. It was 17° in Palomar Mountain, the lowest temperature on record for November. This also occurred on this day in 1964 and on 11/29/1975.

==================================================================
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Sat Nov 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Raymond, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on newly developed Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E, located well south of the southern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

…RAYMOND FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.5N 111.7W
ABOUT 455 MI…735 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 111.7 West. Raymond is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue trough Sunday. On the forecast track, Raymond or its remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Weakening is forecast and Raymond is expected to become a tropical depression
when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday and should degenerate into a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADING WEST WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…9.2N 100.2W
ABOUT 530 MI…855 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 9.2 North, longitude 100.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, but no significant intensification is anticipated through early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None

======================================================================
CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0720 Hrs. TEMP: 470 RH: 44% WIND: NE 4 G 10
0.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
=================================================================
FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

National Fire Activity (November 8 – November 14, 2019)

Initial attack activity: Light (311 new fires)
New large incidents: 3
Large fires contained: 5
Uncontained large fires:*** 1
Area Command teams committed: 0
NIMOs committed: 0
Type 1 IMTs committed: 0
Type 2 IMTs committed: 0

Active Incident Resource Summary
GACC Incidents Cumulative Acres Crews Engines Helicopters Total Personnel
AICC 0 0 0 0 0 0
NWCC 0 0 0 0 0 0
ONCC 2 2,623 2 2 0 54
OSCC 0 0 0 0 0 0
NRCC 0 0 0 0 0 0
GBCC 0 0 0 0 0 0
SWCC 0 0 0 0 0 0
RMCC 2 13,000 0 24 2 86
EACC 0 0 0 0 0 0
SACC 1 324 0 1 0 2
Total 5 15,947 2 27 2 142

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)

Number of Fires and Acres:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2019 through November 10, 2019 5,366 128,299
January 1, 2018 through November 10, 2018 5,491 786,456
5-Year Average (same interval) 5,365 404,368
2019 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 6,541 252,673

Southern California Area (PL 2 )
No Reportable Incidents

Northern California Area (PL 2 )

New fires: 57
New large incidents: 0
Uncontained large fires: 0

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