FIRE WEATHER 11/17/19

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
ALL UNITS From:
EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
Ph: OFFICE:(760) 559-3032
AFTER 2200 HRS CALL (760)-244-9790
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COUNTY F.D RADIO: #733784 CALL SIGN: COM-330

Date: 11/17/19

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:180

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 2 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
===================================================================
SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 6 pm this evening for gusty winds and low humidity for coastal mountain slopes, valley corridors, and passes and canyons…

Santa Ana winds will be peaking this morning, with gusty winds through the passes and canyons and along the foothills. Relative humidity will lower once again to around 10% for inland areas. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the coastal mountain slopes and valley areas below passes and canyons until 6 pm this evening. Winds will lighten on Monday but low humidity will remain. Much higher humidity and widespread precipitation Tuesday night through Thursday night.

First Winter Storm of the Season
Moderate confidence in details and timing.
– What: Rain, mountain snow (starting at 8,000 ft Tuesday night and lowering to 6,000 ft Wednesday night), mountain fog, and gusty winds in the mountains and deserts. Preliminary precipitation amounts 0.50-1.00 inches across most of the area.

– Where: All of Southern California.

– When: Late Tuesday through Thursday, potentially lingering into Friday. The brunt of the storm will occur Wednesday – Thursday.

Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph will surface across the mountains and below the canyons and passes of Southern California this morning.

· These winds will decrease and become localized this afternoon and evening. Winds will be light by early Monday morning.

· Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal through Monday, with mid 60s to mid 70s across the mountains and upper 70s and 80s in the valleys.

· Minimum humidity will be mainly in the single digits and teens through Monday.

· There will be a significant cooling trend and a big increase in humidity Tuesday and Wednesday.

· Temperatures will be well below normal Wednesday and Thursday.

· South to west winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph will surface across the wind prone mountain and desert areas Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

· Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the area Tuesday evening through Thursday night.

· Most locations over the Sierra and Southern California will receive between a quarter inch and an inch of rainfall. There will be less than a quarter inch of rainfall across Central California west of the Sierra.

· The snow level will be around 6,000 feet.

· A slow warming and drying trend will occur Friday through next weekend.

· Winds will be light Wednesday afternoon through next weekend.

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
Another couple days of dry conditions, with Min RH values falling into the single digits for the desert valleys and teens elsewhere. Relatively low wind fields expected today and tomorrow should keep fire weather conditions from reaching critical thresholds but elevated levels will linger through Monday given afternoon light breezes.

A major pattern change will bring much needed wetting rains to the region as well as high elevation snows. Higher elevation snow amounts could be significant as well which should significantly improve the fuel situations in those places. Lower elevation areas will be dependent on how much rain occurs this week, but expecting enough rainfall activity to result in at least short term fuel improvement for much of the region. Drier conditions expected to return by the weekend.

CHANGES SINCE PREVIOUS BRIEFING
Confidence continues to increase for widespread precipitation beginning Tuesday and lasting through Friday.
Confidence increasing for significant snowfall for elevate
ons above 6000 ft Wednesday night into Thursday.

CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS
Midweek Weather System
HIGH Confidence Widespread low elevation rainfall and high elevation snowfall resulting in slick driving conditions.

MODERATE Confidence
Moderate to heavy rain leading to minor nuisance flooding.
Heavy rain leading to flash flooding (Mohave County).
Significant snowfall for elevations above 6000 ft.

LOW Confidence
Heavy rain leading to flash flooding (Clark/San Bern/Lincoln).
Travel delays at McCarran International Airport due to low clouds and rain.
Hazardous travel conditions due to slick, snowy roads above 6000ft.

Details:
TIMING: Moderate Confidence
Precipitation still expected to overspread the area Tuesday night-Wednesday.
Heaviest rainfall expected late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Heaviest snowfall expected late Wednesday into Thursday.
Precipitation will linger into Thursday, possibly Friday. (lower confidence)

IMPACTS: Low-Moderate Confidence
Heavy rain & flooding is possible, especially south and east of I-15.
Lesser precipitation amounts expected through Inyo, Esmerelda, and Nye counties but still over a quarter inch.
Potential for first significant accumulating snow in the Spring Mountains. Still unclear on specific amounts however.
Area of higher potential impacts may still shift over the next few days as details evolve. STAY TUNED!

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
The potential for large fire will remain elevated across Southern California today due to gusty winds, warm temperatures, low humidity, and record dry fuels. Rapid rates of spread and long range spotting will be likely on new ignitions in windy areas. There will be a significant decrease in the large fire potential Monday as winds become light. There will be little or no fire activity across the region Tuesday through next weekend due to cool and humid conditions. There will be a substantial increase in dead fuel moisture Wednesday and Thursday due to wetting rains, especially across the Sierra and Southern California

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: YELLOW – MARGINAL
Offshore winds will increase this morning with gusts to 50 mph possible before noon. Temperatures will climb to near record high readings and minimum RH will be in the single digits. Expect winds to weaken this evening, but RH may remain low overnight tonight.

NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to significant
fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

Zones Nov. 17 Nov. 18 Nov. 19 Nov. 20 Nov. 21 Nov. 22
Zone 1:
LA-Ventura MODERATE MARGINAL NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 2:
Orange-Inland Empire MARGINAL NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 3:
San Diego MODERATE MARGINAL NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 4:
Santa Barbara NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE

————————————————————————————–
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..73 to 79. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northeast 6 to 8 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..40 to 50. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Max humidity……..25 to 35 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east around 6 mph in the evening becoming variable 2 to 4 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..74 to 80. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 1 to 3 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
…RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND THROUGH VALLEY CORRIDORS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS…
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 63. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 47. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Light west wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the evening.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
…RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST SUNDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE INTERIOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS…

…WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY…
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 67. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 46. East northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 67. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

*PHELAN:
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 71. West wind around 5 mph becoming north in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 55. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 71. West wind around 5 mph becoming north in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

TRONA (INDIAN WELLS) (CAZ298):
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..73-78. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..13 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast up to 10 mph.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….4300 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..45-50. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Max Humidity……..28-38 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 3-5 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..75-80. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 degrees.
Min Humidity……..11-16 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….East up to 10 mph.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Poor.
Mixing height…….3300 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 5 mph in the morning shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….78-83. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….9-12 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast 15 to 20 mph becoming 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….44-49. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….26-31 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East 10 to 15 mph decreasing to around 10 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

MONDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….78-83. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….10-13 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

*BAKER:
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 80. North wind 6 to 9 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 43. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Light east wind.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS (CAZ226):
SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….73-78. 7000 feet…….61-66. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….11-15 percent. 7000 feet…….14-24 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….35-40. 7000 feet…….25-30. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….39-44 percent. 7000 feet…….37-42 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
* Upper slopes….North winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest up to 10 mph after midnight.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast around 10 mph in the evening becoming light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

MONDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….74-79. 7000 feet…….63-68. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….12-17 percent. 7000 feet…….14-24 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming southeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….Northwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….West around 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ299):
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..73-78. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..10-18 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 5-12 mph.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Very good.
Mixing height…….4300 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast around 15 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..44-49. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Max Humidity……..28-38 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 1-3 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 4-7 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..76-81. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-4 degrees.
Min Humidity……..11-20 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….East up to 10 mph.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Fair.
Mixing height…….4300 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast around 5 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST SUNDAY…
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..83 to 91. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 7 to 17 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..39 to 49. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Max humidity……..25 to 35 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..83 to 89. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 11 mph becoming west 6 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST SUNDAY…
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 84. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 59. North wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

*CHINO HILLS:
…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST SUNDAY…
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 89. East wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 50. East wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 85. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

*COLTON:
…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST SUNDAY…
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 90. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 53. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255):
…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST SUNDAY…
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..59 to 69 above 6000 feet to 70 to 80 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds north 9 to 19 mph. Gusts to 35 mph…becoming 25 mph in the afternoon.
RIDGETOP………Winds east 6 to 16 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..27 to 37 above 6000 feet to 42 to 52 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 3 degrees.
Max humidity..20 to 25 percent on desert slopes to 15 to 20 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND…Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds northeast 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds east 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..59 to 69 above 6000 feet to 69 to 79 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds north 6 to 9 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the morning.
RIDGETOP………Winds east around 6 mph in the morning becoming variable 2 to 4 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST SUNDAY…
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 67. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 48. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 67. North wind around 5 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST SUNDAY…
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 63. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 27. East wind around 5 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. Light southwest wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

BANNING PASS (CAZ265):
…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST SUNDAY…
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..83 to 90. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northeast 8 to 18 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..55 to 65. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Max humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northeast 6 to 13 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..82 to 89. 24 HR TREND……Down 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southeast 6 to 13 mph. Gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ230):
.TODAY… * Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..70-82. * 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..10-15 pct. * 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northeast 10 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

.TONIGHT… * Sky/weather…………………Clear.
* Min Temperature……………..45-56. * 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Max Humidity………………..19-27 pct. * 24 hr trend………………3 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………East 10 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.

.MONDAY… * Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..71-82. * 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..9-14 pct. * 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming northeast in the afternoon.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………East 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….80-85. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….6-16 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….2800 ft agl. Transport winds…..North 10 to 15 knots.
* Ventilation………Fair to good.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….47-52. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….27-32 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph in the evening becoming downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

MONDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….80-85. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….7-17 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….3700 ft agl. Transport winds…..North around 10 knots.
* Ventilation………Fair to good.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER (NVZ465):
SUNDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….73-78. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….10-14 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….3000 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Marginal.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: 4000 feet…….40-45. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: 4000 feet…….33-38 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

MONDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….74-79. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….13-18 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….2300 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Marginal.

*La Jolla CA
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 78. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the evening.
Monday
Increasing clouds, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Light and variable wind becoming south 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

*Poway CA
…RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND THROUGH VALLEY CORRIDORS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS…
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 91. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 53. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 87. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the morning.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Light east wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the evening.

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 60. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 30. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 65. Light and variable wind.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 33. North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming southeast in the evening.

*************************** L.A COUNTY ********************************
…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER VENTURA COUNTY…THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE SAN FERNANDO AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS…

…WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA…

…POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…
LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ548):
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..85-94. 24 hr trend……Up 4.
Min humidity……..9-15 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 7.
20-foot winds…….North 10-20 mph with local gusts to 30 mph. Strongest in the hills.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..53-61 except 64-66 in the hills.
Max humidity……..25-45 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..83-92.
Min humidity……..8-15 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph becoming variable 3-6 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ254):
…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST SUNDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY…
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..76-86 low elevations to 65-72 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Little change.
Min humidity……..8-12 percent. 24 hr trend……Little change.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph becoming 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph late in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 20-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph becoming 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph late in the afternoon. Isolated gusts to 50 mph near Whitaker Peak.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..56-66 low elevations to 46-53 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..15-25 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….East 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening becoming 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph late.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..76-85 low elevations to 66-74 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..8-15 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….East 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..71-77. 24 hr trend……Little change.
Min humidity……..8-12 percent. 24 hr trend……Little change.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..37-47 except 52-57 in the hills.
Max humidity……..25-45 percent except 15-25 percent in the hills.
20-foot winds…….East 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening becoming west with gusts to 30 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

MONDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..73-81.
Min humidity……..8-12 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 10-20 mph with local gusts to 30 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

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THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
2008: Santa Ana winds blew from 11/15 to 11/19. Winds gusted over 70 mph in the Santa Ana Mountains and over 60 mph in the northern Inland Empire. The Freeway Complex Fire burned from Corona through Chino Hills and Yorba Linda. Due to the fire 40,000 people were evacuated and State Routes 91, 71, and 57 were temporarily closed. Ultimately the fire would burn 30,305 acres, 361 structures and would injure 14 firefighters.

1986: An early season storm that started on this day and ended on 11/18 brought 1.16 inches of rain to San Diego, more rain than that which falls during a normal entire November. Other totals: 1.49 inches at Montgomery Field, 1.21 inches at Mt. Laguna, 1.07 inches at Miramar, 1.03 inches in Oceanside and 0.41 inch in Chula Vista. Numerous traffic accidents and a few power outages resulted. The San Diego River flooded causing many road closures in Mission Valley. Street flooding occurred in North Park, Midway, and in Encinitas. A mudslide blocked Malibu Canyon road. A traffic accident claimed two lives in LA.

1964: An oddly snowy month in Elsinore continued with one inch of snow on this day. A tenth inch of snow also fell on 11/10/1964. In the upper deserts, 2.5 inches of snow fell in Victorville, the earliest date in the season to record measurable snowfall. Cold temperatures accompanied the snow, with Palm Springs setting a record low for the month of 23 °.

1958: It was 10° in Idyllwild, the lowest temperature on record for November. This also occurred on 11/19/1964. It was also quite cold at the coast, where Newport Beach set a record low for November with a temperature of 34 °.

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TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Raymond, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E, located well south of the southern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019

…RAYMOND DEGENERATED INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW…
…RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.1N 111.1W
ABOUT 275 MI…440 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 111.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26
km/h) and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, Raymond’s remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to dissipate late Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

…DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…10.5N 102.8W
ABOUT 505 MI…810 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 102.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and the depression is expected to either dissipate or degenerate into a remnant low within the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None

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CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0740 Hrs. TEMP: 510 RH: 39% WIND: CALM
0.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
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FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)

Number of Fires and Acres:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2019 through November 10, 2019 5,366 128,299
January 1, 2018 through November 10, 2018 5,491 786,456
5-Year Average (same interval) 5,365 404,368
2019 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 6,541 252,673

Southern California Area (PL 2 )
No Reportable Incidents

Northern California Area (PL 2 )
No Reportable Incidents

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