FIRE WEATHER 8/7/19

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
To: ALL UNITS From:
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Date: 8/7/19

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:77

National Preparedness Level (PL 3 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 2 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
==============================================================================
SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
Mid level monsoonal moisture in south flow aloft will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly along the east slopes of the mountains of Riverside and San Diego Counties into the adjacent desert areas. For Thursday into the weekend, a low pressure system will move inland into the western states with dry southwest flow aloft and onshore flow. This will bring slight cooling and lower inland humidity. For the first part of next week, high pressure to the south will bring a warming trend for inland areas. The marine layer will keep areas near the coast cooler with higher humidity.

Highs today will range from the 70s at the coast and in the mountains to the upper 90s in the valleys. By Friday, expect valley highs to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A slow warming trend will begin early next week.

· Minimum RH will drop into the 10-15% range today over many elevations above 5,000 feet.

· Isolated thunderstorms will occur again today on the east side of the Cleveland and San Bernardino N.F. and near the Sierra Crest (there were 9 lightning strikes east of the CNF yesterday). No storms are expected Friday and beyond.

· Local northwest winds of 10-20 mph along the central coast during the afternoon hours. Local north winds of 20-30 mph possible this morning and again the next two nights in Santa Barbara County.

· There will be westerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the desert interface regions the next few afternoons.

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
Shower and thunderstorm development remains possible for southern Nevada and NW Arizona today and tomorrow. However, due to the dry lower levels, rain that reaches the ground will be minimal. Dry lightning will be a concern, particularly in Esmeralda County where RH values flirt with Red Flag criteria and fuels have had a chance to dry out. We have upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from this afternoon through early Thursday morning for Fire Weather Zone
460.

Upper-level moisture leaves the area through the day on Friday, leaving us with dry conditions through the weekend and into the start of the work week with minimum RH values in the single digits

FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES INTO THE ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
WED THUR
Inland Empire
NONE NONE
San Bernardino County Mountains
LOW NONE
High Desert Including Apple and Lucerne Valleys LOW NONE
San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning NONE NONE

Flash Flood Codes: GREEN: NONE YELLOW: LOW ORANGE: MODERATE RED: HIGH

SPECIAL NOTES:
BI-MONTHLY FUELS DISCUSSION
For Southern and Central California
Updated: Tuesday, August 6th, 2019
General Discussion:

Seasonally warm and dry conditions continued during the second half of July into early August. But a few warmer than normal periods did occur around the 1st of August as high pressure remained over the Southwest. Even though the high pressure ridge was centered in a favorable position over the Four Corners region, little moisture made its way into California during the past two weeks. Thus, the string of days without convection continued over nearly the entire region.

The sunny, warm weather caused fuel moisture to be pushed lower – especially across inland areas away from the influence of the marine layer. The lack of a summer monsoon, resulting in sunny afternoon conditions, was a prime cause behind the rapid drying of fuels in the mountains. Ordinarily, the Sierras experience wetting rains, or at least some cloud cover, during many summer days. The absence of clouds allowed dead fuel moisture to continue to drop; reaching well below normal readings across the Sierra Foothills by early August. Other areas, while not quite as dry, are near to a bit below normal in terms of dead fuel moisture. Live fuels are also drying quickly but still retain a bit above normal fuel moisture for this time of year.

There is little in the long-term weather pattern to hint at much of a change during the next two weeks. The district looks to be situated between the trough off the Pacific Northwest coast and the strong ridge over the Southwest. As the two vie for supremacy, expect the weather pattern to fluctuate between seasonally warm temperatures followed by hot weather, with a 5-7 day cycle between the two. Southwesterly flow aloft continuing practically insures that monsoonal moisture will remain east of the district through the middle of August.

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
Large fire potential will be elevated through the period due to dry fuel conditions in the dead fuels. The two main areas of elevated potential continue to be the central coast interior and the Sierra Foothills where fuel beds are dominated by standing dead vegetation. Any new start in these areas will transition rapidly into the heavier dead timber, but rates of spread should remain moderate due to a lack of wind and cooler, more humid conditions. Expect steady, moderate IA through the weekend with little day to day change in resource demand within the Geographic Region. However, out of region demand may increase substantially the next two days due to windy conditions and dry lightning east of the Cascades toward the northern Great Basin.

• Fire Danger / Dispatch Levels / Burn Status

• VALLEY: HIGH HIGH SRA: SUSPENDED LOCAL: NO

• DESERT: HIGH HIGH SRA: SUSPENDED LOCAL: YES

• MOUNTAINS: HIGH HIGH SRA: SUSPENDED LOCAL: NO

• OWENS VALLEY: HIGH HIGH SRA: SUSPENDED LOCAL: YES

• Burn Index and Ignition Component:

• OWENS VALLEY: BI: 50 IC: 31

• OAK CREEK: BI: 61 IC: 41

• FAWNSKIN: BI: 00 IC:00

• BDF MILL CREEK: BI: 125 IC: 65

• YUCCA VALLEY: BI: 82 IC: 65

• DEVORE: BI: 108 IC: 57

• MORMON ROCK: BI: 145 IC: 65

• HEAPS PEAK: BI: 20 IC: 25

APPLE VALLEY: BI: 89 IC: 76

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING
————————————————————————————–
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
. TODAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..95 to 101. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Min humidity……..15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west around 6 mph becoming south 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……2 percent. LAL……………..1…becoming 2 late in the morning.

.TONIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..65 to 73. 24 HR TREND……Down 6 degrees.
Max humidity……..30 to 40 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds south 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……1 percent. LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..94 to 103. 24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southwest 6 to 14 mph. Gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 55. South southwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 75. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 54. Southwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.

*PHELAN:
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Light and variable wind becoming south 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 66. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind becoming south 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 62. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 85.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59.

*TRONA – Indian Wells Valley:
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..96-101. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-5 degrees.
Min Humidity……..10-18 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-4 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Southwest 3-8 mph in the early morning increasing to 6-14 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….15200 ft AGL.
Transport Winds…..Southwest around 5 mph in the morning increasing to around 15 mph in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..70-75. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-5 degrees.
Max Humidity……..26-36 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-4 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 3-14 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..94-99. 24 HR Trend……Down 1-3 degrees.
Min Humidity……..8-17 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 1-3 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Southwest 3-8 mph in the early morning increasing to south 5-15 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation….Excellent. Mixing height…..16000 ft AGL. Transport Winds…West around 5 mph in the morning increasing to south around 20 mph in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
. TODAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….102-107. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….11-21 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….South 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..2. * Haines Index……..4.

.TONIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….68-73. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 degrees.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….33-38 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 5 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….South 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….103-108. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….8-14 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 5 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….South 10 to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.

*BAKER:
Wednesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 107. South wind 6 to 9 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 80. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 106. South southwest wind around 7 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 76. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming south southeast after midnight.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS:
. .WEDNESDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….97-102. * 7000 feet…….81-86. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….10-16 percent. * 7000 feet….21-31 percent. * 24 hr trend….On average up 6 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming south 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable becoming south 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….10 percent. * LAL……………..2. * Haines Index……..5.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….62-67. * 7000 feet…….32-37. * 24 hr trend…On average down 4 degrees.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….35-40 percent. * 7000 feet…53-58 percent. * 24 hr trend…On average up 8 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….West winds up to 10 mph.
* Upper slopes….West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….95-100. * 7000 feet…….78-83. * 24 hr trend…On average down 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….9-14 percent. * 7000 feet….20-30 percent. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south with gusts to around 30 mph in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….South 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..2. * Haines Index……..6.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy.
Max temperature…..90 to 98. 24 HR TREND……Down 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..20 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 12 mph. Gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……2 percent. LAL……………..1.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..60 to 66. 24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.
Max humidity……..70 to 80 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening becoming variable 2 to 5 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……2 percent. LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..90 to 98. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Min humidity……..20 to 25 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 13 mph. Gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……1 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Light southwest wind increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 94. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

*CHINO HILLS:
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

*COLTON:
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 96. Light southwest wind becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 96. Light southwest wind becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 66. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255/CAZ256):
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..73 to 83 above 6000 feet to 81 to 91 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 25 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds south 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming west 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
RIDGETOP………Winds southwest 6 to 11 mph. Gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……7 percent. LAL……………..1…becoming 3 late in the morning.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Min temperature…..46 to 56 above 6000 feet to 54 to 64 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 3 degrees.
Max humidity….25 to 35 percent on desert slopes to 35 to 45 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND..Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds west 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming south 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 20 mph after midnight.
RIDGETOP………Winds southwest 6 to 10 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the evening.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……7 percent. LAL…………….. 1 .

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..73 to 83 above 6000 feet to 80 to 90 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds west 6 to 16 mph. Gusts to 30 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds southwest 6 to 15 mph. Gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……2 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 63. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 80. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 61. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
Today
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 78. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

BANNING PASS:
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy.
Max temperature…..103 to 108. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southeast 6 to 15 mph. Gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……3 percent. LAL……………..1…becoming 2 late in the morning

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..76 to 85. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Max humidity……..20 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northwest 6 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……3 percent. LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..105 to 110. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 9 to 19 mph. Gusts to 25 mph…becoming 35 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……1 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ261):
.WEDNESDAY… * Sky/weather…………………Partly sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..89-102. * 24 hr trend………………3 degrees cooler.
* Min Humidity………………..18-23 pct. * 24 hr trend………………5 pct wetter.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip…….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…..0 percent. LAL….2 in the morning becoming 3 in the afternoon
* Haines High Level Index………3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * Sky/weather…………………Mostly clear.
* Min Temperature……………..68-81. * 24 hr trend………………3 degrees cooler.
* Max Humidity………………..28-35 pct. * 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Light and variable in the evening becoming south 5 to 15 mph after midnight.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..89-103. * 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..13-18 pct. * 24 hr trend………………5 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
.WEDNESDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….106-111. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….13-23 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 7 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….South wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….South 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..2. * Haines Index……..3.
* Mixing height…….13300 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..South up to 10 knots.
* Ventilation………Excellent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….79-84. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 degrees.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….32-37 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Southeast wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..3.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….106-111. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….10-20 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….South wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….South 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..3.
* Mixing height…….13000 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..South up to 10 knots.
* Ventilation………Excellent.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER:
WEDNESDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: * 4000 feet…….100-105. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: * 4000 feet…….15-21 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 7 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….South winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..2. * Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….14300 ft agl. * Transport winds…..Light winds. * Ventilation………Very good.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy.
* Min temperature: * 4000 feet…….72-77. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 degrees.
* Max humidity: * 4000 feet…….32-37 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: * 4000 feet…….99-104. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: * 4000 feet…….11-17 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….South winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….South 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….14900 ft agl. * Transport winds…..Light winds. * Ventilation………Excellent.

*************************** OUT OF COUNTY ********************************
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY…

…ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND ANTELOPE VALLEYTHROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES…

LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ247/CAZ249):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny except patchy morning low clouds and fog.
Max temperature…..86-96. 24 hr trend……Down 5.
Min humidity……..20-40 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 8.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming south 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear except patchy low clouds and fog after midnight.
Min temperature…..59-66.
Max humidity……..70-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph early becoming variable 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny except areas of morning low clouds and fog.
Max temperature…..84-94.
Min humidity……..20-40 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming south 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ253):
. .TODAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny then becoming partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..88-97 low elevations to 78-86 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Down 5.
Min humidity……..8-25 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 3.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…West 6-12 mph becoming southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….West 6-12 mph becoming southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..2. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.TONIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..63-70 low elevations to 56-61 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..30-50 percent except 50-65 percent colder valleys.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening diminishing to 8-15 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening diminishing to 8-15 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..86-95 low elevations to 77-84 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..10-25 percent.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…Southwest 8-15 mph becoming 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….Southwest 8-15 mph becoming 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..94-100. 24 hr trend……Down 3.
Min humidity……..7-12 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 3.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 8-15 mph becoming 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Isolated gusts to 40 mph near Lake Palmdale.
LAL……………..2. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.
Min temperature…..60-70.
Max humidity……..30-40 percent.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the evening becoming 8-15 mph.
Isolated gusts to 40 mph near Lake Palmdale.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..92-98.
Min humidity……..9-15 percent.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 8-15 mph becoming 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Isolated gusts to 40 mph near Lake Palmdale.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ298):

.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..93-98. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-8 degrees.
Min Humidity……..15-25 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-8 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Southwest 3-8 mph in the early morning increasing to 6-15 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1. Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….14900 ft AGL.
Transport Winds…..Southwest around 5 mph in the morning increasing to around 15 mph in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..66-71. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-5 degrees.
Max Humidity……..37-47 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….Southwest 3-15 mph in the early evening shifting to the west 3-12 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..92-97. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..15-25 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 1-3 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 3-8 mph in the early morning increasing to southwest 6-13 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Excellent. Mixing height…….14200 ft AGL.
Transport Winds…..Southwest around 5 mph in the morning increasing to around 20 mph in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

*La Jolla CA
Wednesday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 64. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 71. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Thursday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 64. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

*Poway CA
Wednesday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Light west wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 64. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 87. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 62. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Wednesday through Monday

A weak moisture influx will peak Wednesday into Thursday.Convection will increase some in areal coverage during this
period, with a threat of locally heavy rain. There is a risk of flash flooding, particularly near burn scars, slot canyons,
normally dry washes, and areas of poor drainage through Thursday.

Wednesday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. West southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Wednesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. West southwest wind 6 to 9 mph becoming south after midnight.
Thursday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. South wind around 7 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. West southwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming south southeast after midnight.

============================================================
THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
1998: It was 112° in Victorville, the highest temperature on record for August. This also occurred the previous day on 8/6 and on 8/14/2002.

1997: A major heat wave started on 8/2 and ended on this day. Temperatures hit 121° in Thermal, 118° in Borrego Springs, 113° in Brea, 110° in Riverside and Ontario, and 101° in Julian. The low temperature was 93° in Palm Springs on 8/5. Five deaths were attributed to this heat wave.

1989: One of the most severe convective outbreaks of record in Southern California began on this day and continued until 8/11, when it climaxed. Over one inch of rain hit Idyllwild on 8/9 and more than a half inch fell on Palm Springs on 8/10.

1963: Thunderstorms struck Newberry, Yucca Valley and Twentynine Palms. Floods coming off lava beds south of Newberry put 10 inches of mud in the homes of 30 families. Widespread losses were also felt by livestock and agriculture. A lumber yard was buried in mud.

1947: A number of thunderstorms hit the mountains and deserts giving daily record rainfall to many places.

1906: A tsunami developed in San Diego from a local sea quake.
==================================================================
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico toward the end of the week. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
conducive for the development of this system over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and offshore of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
.

======================================================================
CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0900 Hrs. TEMP: 830 RH: 23% WIND: W 3 G 11
7.63” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 1.00” /
=================================================================
FIRES: UPDATED
Large fire activity increased in the Great Basin Area yesterday. Nationally, nine new large fires reported, bringing the total to 74 large fires that have burned more than 1.3 million acres

Daily statistics 8/7/19
Number of new large fires or emergency response 9 States currently reporting large fires:
Number of active large fires
Total does not include individual fires within complexes. 74 Alaska (21)
Arizona (7)
California (1)
Colorado (2)
Idaho (6)
Montana (6)
Nevada (3)
New Mexico (6)
Oregon (5)
Texas (1)
Utah (11)
Washington (5)
Acres from active fires 1,325,410
Fires contained 7
Year-to-date statistics
2019 (1/1/19 – 8/7/19) Fires: 27,889 Acres: 3,500,137
2018 (1/1/18 – 8/7/18) Fires: 39,398 Acres: 5,354,188
2017 (1/1/17 – 8/7/17) Fires: 40,408 Acres: 5,962,283
2016 (1/1/16 – 8/7/16) Fires: 35,646 Acres: 3,533,569
2015 (1/1/15 – 8/7/15) Fires: 37,582 Acres: 6,058,694
2014 (1/1/14 – 8/7/14) Fires: 34,895 Acres: 2,029,528
2013 (1/1/13 – 8/7/13) Fires: 29,047 Acres: 2,511,247
2012 (1/1/12 – 8/7/12) Fires: 39,321 Acres: 4,738,704
2011 (1/1/11 – 8/7/11) Fires: 47,883 Acres: 6,290,420
2010 (1/1/10 – 8/7/10) Fires: 40,909 Acres: 2,112,633
2009 (1/1/09 – 8/7/09) Fires: 59,420 Acres: 4,591,083
10-year average Year-to-Date
2009-2018 Fires: 39,904 Acres: 4,228,737

National Preparedness Level (PL 3)

Initial attack activity: Light (124 new fires)
New large incidents: 9
Large fires contained: 7
Uncontained large fires:** 27
Area Command teams committed: 0
NIMOs committed: 2
Type 1 IMTs committed: 1
Type 2 IMTs committed: 7

Active Incident Resource Summary
GACC Incidents Cumulative Acres Crews Engines Helicopters Total Personnel
AICC 6 1,028,842 22 0 4 718
NWCC 12 38,789 99 138 31 3,160
ONCC 2 15,037 1 9 0 199
OSCC 6 954 9 26 2 406
NRCC 13 24,012 29 70 12 1,444
GBCC 21 82,603 44 95 20 1,716
SWCC 7 25,454 9 13 3 370
RMCC 2 42 0 0 0 14
EACC 0 0 0 0 0 0
SACC 4 5,608 0 5 0 47
Total 73 1,221,340 213 356 72 8,074

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)
Number of Fires and Acres:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2019 through August 4, 2019 2,971 22,949
January 1, 2018 through August 4, 2018 3,661 615,771
5-Year Average (same interval) 3,572 245,850
2019 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 3,487 45,364

Southern California Area (PL 2 )
New fires: 18
New large incidents: 0
Uncontained large fires: 1

Mill, Vegetation Fire, Monterey County, Update
West of Fort Hunter Liggett
Federal DPA, FRA Los Padres National Forest
• 310 acres (+0 acres), grass, 95% contained (+25% containment)
• Minimal fire behavior with smoldering
• Limited access due to steep terrain
• Continued road and trail closures
• TORO General Information
Last Updated 8/6/2019
Date Started 8/5/2019
Location Information 26000 Block El Toro Road, North of Lake Elsinore
Lat/Long [33.740219, -117.333728]
Status Active
Percentage Contained 85%
Acres Burned 94
Fuel Type
Administrative Unit CAL FIRE Riverside County Fire Department
Command Team
Cause Under Investigation
Counties Riverside

Caliente FIRE General Information
Last Updated 8/6/2019
Date Started 8/5/2019
Location Information Caliente Bodfish Rd, east of Bakersfield
Lat/Long [35.287373, -118.623651]
Status Active
Percentage Contained 90%
Acres Burned 29
Fuel Type
Administrative Unit Kern County Fire Department
Command Team
Cause Under Investigation
Counties Kern

Northern California Area (PL 2 )
New fires: 14
New large incidents: 0
Uncontained large fires: 0

No Reportable Incidents

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