FIRE WEATHER 9/12/19

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
ALL UNITS From:

EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
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Date: 9/11/19

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:113

National Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 3 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 3 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
==============================================================================
SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
Offshore flow this morning will produce easterly winds that peak out between 7-11 AM, with gusts 20-30 mph for many foothill areas, and 30-40 mph for isolated pockets in the Cuyamaca and Laguna foothills. RH will drop into the teens with the daytime heating, but that will occur just as the strongest winds decrease around midday. Accordingly, critical fire weather conditions are expected only for isolated spots and only for a couple hours. Offshore flow relaxes this afternoon and evening. It will continue hot and dry inland through Saturday, but without any strong winds. Good RH recovery at night. Next week, an unseasonably strong upper trough will bring a cooling trend, onshore winds in the mountains and deserts and a rebuilding marine layer with coastal low clouds. Mountain and high desert winds are gusty on Monday and Tuesday with low humidity.

Significant warming will occur today, with mid 70s to mid 80s across the mountains and upper 80s and 90s in the valleys.

· Temperatures will warm another 5 degrees or so Friday and Saturday, with upper 70s and 80s across the mountains and 90s to 102 in the valleys.

· Winds will be light through Saturday.

· Temperatures will cool around 5 degrees Sunday, but they will still be a little above normal.

· Minimum humidity will be mainly in the single digits and teens through Sunday.

· Westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph will surface across the mountain ridges and desert passes Sunday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

· Temperatures will become well below normal Monday through Wednesday.

· There will be a big increase in humidity away from the deserts early next week.

· Scattered showers with light rainfall totals will be possible across the Central Sierra Monday night through Tuesday night

Santa Ana winds on Thursday for wind prone areas High Confidence Elevated fire danger due to low humidity, dry fuel and easterly wind gusts 25-35 mph

Details – What: Weak Santa Ana easterly winds in canyons and gaps
– Where: Mountain canyons and gaps and western slopes
– When: early Thursday through Thursday afternoon

Heat for all areas
High Confidence Temperatures up to 10 degrees above average on Friday and Saturday and low humidity
Details – What: Very warm temperatures
80s to lower 90s for Coast
Mid to upper 90s Inland Valleys
99-104 Inland Empire and High Desert
108-113 lower deserts

– Where: All areas
– When: Starts Thursday but hottest on Friday and Saturday

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
Dry conditions expected to continue through the weekend, though wind speeds expected to be light through at least Saturday. With the onset of the next weather system, strong, gusty winds expected across the southern Great Basin with the potential for downslope winds down the eastern Sierra in excess of 50 mph Monday evening. Associated with these gusts are RH values that range between the single digits and mid-teens, resulting in potential critical fire conditions for the start of the work week

FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

Thursday FRIDAY
Inland Empire
NONE NONE
San Bernardino County Mountains
NONE NONE
High Desert Including Apple and Lucerne Valleys NONE NONE
San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning NONE NONE

Flash Flood Codes: GREEN: NONE YELLOW: LOW ORANGE: MODERATE RED: HIGH

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
The potential for large fire will be slightly elevated through Saturday due to very warm and dry conditions. Dead fuels will dry out rapidly over the next few days. Even though winds will be light, moderate to rapid rates of spread will be possible on new ignitions in the afternoons where the fuels and topography are favorably aligned. The most critical day for large fire activity will be on Sunday as warm and very dry conditions continue and strong winds commence. Rapid rates of spread and long range spotting will be likely on any new or existing fire in a windy area including the Taboose Fire in Inyo County. Cool and humid conditions will cause the large fire threat to become low Monday through Wednesday. Expect moderate initial attack activity through Sunday and then light IA activity Monday through the middle of next week

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING

————————————————————————-
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..90 to 97. 24 HR TREND……Up 6 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..57 to 67. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Max humidity……..25 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming north around 6 mph after midnight.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..95 to 101. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 degrees.
Min humidity……..5 to 10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north around 6 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 79. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 59. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light after midnight.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 82. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 60. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 75. East northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 56. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 79. Northeast wind around 10 mph becoming north northwest in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 57. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

*PHELAN:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 87. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 65. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 91. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the morning.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 67. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the evening.

TRONA (INDIAN WELLS):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..88-93. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-7 degrees.
Min Humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 1-3 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-8 mph in the morning shifting to the east by afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Very good.
Mixing height…….8700 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 10 mph in the morning shifting to the east in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..63-68. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-4 degrees.
Max Humidity……..17-27 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-7 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 3-6 mph in the evening shifting to the northwest.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..93-98. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-7 degrees.
Min Humidity……..9 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-6 mph in the morning shifting to the east by afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….8800 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..North around 5 mph in the morning shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….96-101. 24 hr trend…..On average up 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….7-12 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. 10000 ft msl….East up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….62-67. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….19-24 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 5 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph. 10000 ft msl….Northeast up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

FRIDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….99-104. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….6-9 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph. 10000 ft msl….East up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

*BAKER:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 100. Northeast wind 8 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 70. Northeast wind 3 to 7 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 103. North northeast wind around 6 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS:
THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….88-93. 7000 feet…….74-79. 24 hr trend…..On average up 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….8-10 percent. 7000 feet…….11-21 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….Southeast winds up to 10 mph. 10000 ft msl….Southeast around 10 mph in the morning becoming light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….53-58. 7000 feet…….31-36. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….26-31 percent. 7000 feet…….34-39 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the west up to 10 mph after midnight.
* Upper slopes….South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East around 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

FRIDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….92-97. 7000 feet…….78-83. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….7-9 percent. 7000 feet…….9-19 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..5.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ298):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..88-93. 24 HR Trend……Up 4-8 degrees.
Min Humidity……..9-19 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-4 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….East 5-10 mph.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….9500 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast around 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min Temperature…..60-65. 24 HR Trend……Up 1-3 degrees.
Max Humidity……..27-37 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-7 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..92-97. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-5 degrees.
Min Humidity……..8-18 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….North to northeast 3-7 mph.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Good.
Mixing height…….9500 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..East up to 5 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
.TODAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..92 to 99. 24 HR TREND……Up 12 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 14 mph becoming west 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.TONIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..64 to 71. 24 HR TREND……Up 6 degrees.
Max humidity……..45 to 55 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 35 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming east around 6 mph after midnight.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..95 to 101. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 8 mph becoming west 6 to 12 mph in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 95. North wind 15 to 20 mph becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 64. Light and variable wind becoming north 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 102. North wind 15 to 20 mph becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 67. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.

*CHINO HILLS:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 90. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 63. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 96. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 65. South wind 10 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

*COLTON:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 97. Light and variable wind becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 68. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south in the evening.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 101. Light and variable wind becoming west 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 70. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255/CAZ256):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..70 to 80 above 6000 feet to 79 to 89 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES……..Winds east 6 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds east 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..41 to 51 above 6000 feet to 51 to 61 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 degrees.
Max humidity….20 to 25 percent on desert slopes to 30 to 40 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND…Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES……….Winds east 6 to 10 mph. Gusts to 20 mph after midnight.
RIDGETOP……..Winds east 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..75 to 85 above 6000 feet to 87 to 97 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)…….. SLOPES………..Winds east 6 to 11 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Gusts to 20 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds east 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 80. East wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 61. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the evening.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 86. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 64. South wind around 5 mph becoming northeast after midnight.

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 75. East wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 43. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east after midnight.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 80. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 45. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight

BANNING PASS:
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..98 to 103. 24 HR TREND……Up 7 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southeast 6 to 9 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..73 to 81. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Max humidity……..20 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southeast around 6 mph becoming west 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph after midnight.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..107 to 112. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ261):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..85-98. 24 hr trend………………3 degrees warmer.
* Min Humidity………………..12-19 pct. 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..East 5 to 15 mph. Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southeast 5 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…….0 percent. LAL…..1. Haines High Level Index…….4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather…………………Clear.
* Min Temperature……………..65-73. 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Max Humidity………………..21-26 pct. 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph. Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northeast 5 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather…………………Sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..90-102. 24 hr trend………………5 degrees warmer.
* Min Humidity………………..8-13 pct. 24 hr trend………………6 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph. Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northwest 5 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……1. Haines High Level Index……4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….100-105. 24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….5-13 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph. 10000 ft msl….East up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.
* LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….9100 ft agl. Transport winds…..North around 10 knots.
* Ventilation………Very good.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: Valley floor….68-73. 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….19-24 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 7 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph. 10000 ft msl….East around 10 mph shifting to the south after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

FRIDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….104-109. 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….4-10 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Valley floor….Northwest wind up to 10 mph. 10000 ft msl….Southeast up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.
* LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….9000 ft agl. Transport winds…..North around 10 knots.
* Ventilation………Good.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER:
THURSDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….91-96. 24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….7-10 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley…Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. 10000 ft msl….North up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….7600 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds becoming northeast around 10 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation………Good.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Clear.
* Min temperature: 4000 feet…….59-64. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: 4000 feet…….19-24 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 6 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph becoming north up to 10 mph after midnight.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1. Haines Index……..4.

FRIDAY… Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….96-101. 24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….6-9 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg): Slope/valley…Northeast winds up to 10 mph. 10000 ft msl…Northeast around 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….6900 ft agl. Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Good.

*La Jolla CA
Thursday
Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 76. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 66. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Friday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 80. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 67. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

*Poway CA
Thursday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 90. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 64. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 94. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 66. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Thursday through Tuesday

Warmer and drier conditions will exist across the outlook area Thursday through at least early Monday. A new storm system will exit the Pacific Northwest Monday and bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms back into the area by Tuesday.

Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 76. Light and variable wind becoming north northwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 48. North northeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming east after midnight.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 51. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming east southeast after midnight

*************************** L.A COUNTY ********************************
…ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOUNTAINS, DESERTS, AND VALLEYS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS…
LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ247/CAZ249):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..86-96. 24 hr trend……Up 10.
Min humidity……..20-30 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 15.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..1200 ft asl.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..63-69.
Max humidity……..50-70 percent.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph early becoming variable 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..92-100.
Min humidity……..15-25 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ253):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..85-95 low elevations to 75-82 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Up 12.
Min humidity……..8-20 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 5-15.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…East 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph becoming southwest 10-20 mph late.
Ridges/upr slopes….East 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph becoming southwest 10-20 mph late.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..64-72 low elevations to 56-62 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..20-40 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Southwest 10-15 mph early becoming northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….Southwest 10-15 mph early becoming northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..89-99 low elevations to 79-86 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..8-20 percent.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming southwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph by mid afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming southwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph by mid afternoon. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..88-94. 24 hr trend……Up 7.
Min humidity……..8-12 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 5.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.
Min temperature…..56-66.
Max humidity……..25-40 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northwest 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the evening becoming variable 3-8 mph. Strongest west valley.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max temperature…..92-99.
Min humidity……..8-12 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph becoming southwest 8-15 mph late.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

============================================================
THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
1976: Record rains that started on 9/9 ended on this day came from Tropical Storm Kathleen (called a 160+ year event by meteorologists). 14.76 inches fell on south slopes of Mt. San Gorgonio, 10.13 inches at Mt. Laguna, eight inches at Mt. San Jacinto, four+ inches in the Little San Bernardino Mountains, and 1.8 to 2.8 inches in the Coachella Valley. Deep Canyon (above La Quinta) recorded 2.96 inches in three hours on 9/10. Rainfall in the Santa Rosa Mountains above the Coachella Valley was called the “heaviest in recorded history.” Six were buried and killed in sand in Ocotillo. Floods of record were attained at numerous streams around the Coachella Valley. 1.84 inches of rain fell in Riverside on this day, 2.09 inches fell in Borrego Springs, 2.33 inches fell in Victorville, 2.57 inches fell in Idyllwild, and five inches fell in Palomar Mountain, each the greatest daily amounts on record for September. The Victorville amount is also the third highest daily amount on record. This occurred during the El Niño of 1976-77. Hurricane Kathleen also brought the southwest the highest sustained winds ever associated with an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 57 mph at Yuma on 9/10.

1971: A strong ridge of high pressure over the Western U.S. brought a heat wave to the region. It was 120° in Palm Springs, 113° in Riverside, 108° in Escondido, 105° in Santa Ana, and 103° in L.A. It was 100° in Palomar Mountain, the highest temperature on record, for three consecutive days. The century mark has been equaled only on five other occasions.

1939: Four inches of rain fell across the deserts and mountains as a dying tropical cyclone moved across Baja California into southwestern Arizona on 9/11 and on this day. This was the second tropical cyclone to impact California during the busy month of September 1939. A strong El Niño contributed to the activity.
==================================================================
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated and better organized this morning around an area of low pressure located about 500 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and a tropical depression appears to be forming. If this trend continues, advisories will be initiated later this morning or afternoon while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
For additional information on this system, please refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while the system moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of Central America over the weekend. Development of this system is possible early next week while it moves westward well south of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

…NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.9N 111.1W
ABOUT 490 MI…790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and is expected to continue to move to the west or
west-northwest at a slower speed over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with the system expected to become a hurricane this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

======================================================================
CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0850 Hrs. TEMP: 700 RH: 28% WIND: CALM
7.63” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 1.00” /
=================================================================
FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 2)
Seventy-one large fires have burned over 429,000 acres throughout the country. Although the fire year is winding down, Fourteen states are currently experiencing wildland fire activity

Daily statistics 9/11/19
Number of new large fires or emergency response 2 States currently reporting large fires:
Number of active large fires
Total does not include individual fires within complexes. 71 Alaska (6)
Alabama (1)
Arizona (12)
California (14)
Colorado (2)
Idaho (10)
Montana (5)
Nevada (1)
New Mexico (6)
Oklahoma (2)
Oregon (4)
Utah (5)
Washington (2)
Wyoming (1)
Acres from active fires 429,256
Fires contained 2
Year-to-date statistics
2019 (1/1/19 – 9/11/19) Fires: 36,142 Acres: 4,251,231
2018 (1/1/18 – 9/11/18) Fires: 47,303 Acres: 7,068,928
2017 (1/1/17 – 9/11/17) Fires: 48,082 Acres: 8,159,989
2016 (1/1/16 – 9/11/16) Fires: 42,280 Acres: 4,745,957
2015 (1/1/15 – 9/11/15) Fires: 45,198 Acres: 8,671,828
2014 (1/1/14 – 9/11/14) Fires: 39,137 Acres: 2,814,004
2013 (1/1/13 – 9/11/13) Fires: 36,275 Acres: 3,960,254
2012 (1/1/12 – 9/11/12) Fires: 45,777 Acres: 8,180,660
2011 (1/1/11 – 9/11/11) Fires: 56,803 Acres: 7,451,071
2010 (1/1/10 – 9/11/10) Fires: 45,306 Acres: 2,657,483
2009 (1/1/09 – 9/11/09) Fires: 66,446 Acres: 5,475,207
10-year average Year-to-Date
2009-2018 Fires: 47,261 Acres: 5,918,538

Initial attack activity: Light (111 new fires)
New large incidents: 2
Large fires contained: 5
Uncontained large fires:*** 20
Area Command teams committed: 0
NIMOs committed: 0
Type 1 IMTs committed: 2
Type 2 IMTs committed: 6

Active Incident Resource Summary
GACC Incidents Cumulative Acres Crews Engines Helicopters Total Personnel
AICC 5 184,315 7 22 5 587
NWCC 5 10,879 16 10 10 596
ONCC 11 69,973 158 341 38 5,867
OSCC 3 11,590 28 47 10 976
NRCC 7 3,699 0 6 3 73
GBCC 12 49,195 30 44 14 1,162
SWCC 14 49,604 16 28 6 600
RMCC 8 37,991 5 12 5 358
EACC 0 0 0 0 0 0
SACC 8 33,640 0 32 0 178
Total 73 462,195 260 542 91 10,397

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)
Number of Fires and Acres:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2019 through September 8, 2019 3,993 36,683
January 1, 2018 through September 8, 2018 4,378 626,083
5-Year Average (same interval) 4,346 271,740
2019 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 4,927 117,586

Southern California Area (PL 3 )
New fires: 11
New large incidents: 0
Uncontained large fires: 2
Type 2 IMTs committed: 1

Unified Command
Taboose, Vegetation Fire, Inyo County, Update
9 miles south of Big Pine
Federal/State DPA, FRA/SRA, Inyo N.F. /San Bernardino Unit
• 9,385 acres (+50 acres), grass and brush, 47% contained (+9% containment)
• Minimal fire behavior with creeping and smoldering
• CA IMT2 – Team 11 (Fogle) in command
• Voluntary evacuations remain for Big Pine Valley
• Threat remains to kV lines
• Reinforcing containment lines with thorough mop-up
• Unified Command with USFS and CALFIRE
Federal
Snail, Vegetation Fire, Ventura County, Update
3 miles NW of Reyes Creek
Federal DPA, FRA, Los Padres N.F.
• 279 acres (+0), grass and brush, 100% contained (+0% containment)
• Fire is in patrol status
Northern California Area (PL 3 )
New fires: 23
New large incidents: 0
Uncontained large fires: 8
Type 1 IMTs committed 2
Type 2 IMTs committed: 2

CA-MDF Lone Fire: 5,737 acres grass and brush, 92% contained. Threats include numerous archaeological sites, Sage Grouse Habitat

CA-MNF 1-1 Henthorne Fire: 244 acres , 65% contained. Crews continue mop up and repair operations.

CA-NOD R-6 Fire: 260 acres, 100% contained.

CA-TGU Red Bank Fire: 8,838 acres brush, 85% contained. The threat remains to communications infrastructure.

CA-SHF Middle Fire: 357 acres, timber and brush, 0% contained. Fire is located in the Trinity Alps Wilderness.

CA-BTU Swedes Fire: 496 acres, grass, 86% contained. Crews continue to mop up and secure control lines.

CA-PNF Walker Fire: 48,507 acres grass and timber, 28% contained. In Plumas County Evacuation Advisory remains for the Flouroy Bridge and Franks Valley area and Mandatory Evacuation Order remains for Murdock Crossing, Stoney Ridge and Antelope Lake areas. In Lassen County the Evacuation Warning remains along Hwy 395 from Laufman Grade to Wales Canyon and the Babcock Crossing area. Threat remains to the 5 Bears Hydroelectric project in Ward Creek and the Walker Mine Super-fund site.

CA-SHF South Fire:3,185 acres, 20% contained. The incident is located in steep, rugged terrain. There is a structure threat to rural private residences and ranches, as well as Tomhead Lookout and communications infrastructure. There is also a threat to prehistoric trails snf historic sites. Fire may impact a Class 1 Airshed within the Yolla Bolla Wilderness.

CA-KNF Lime Fire: 1,911 acres, 25% contained. Threat to structures, historical and cultural resources, Spotted Owl habitat and high value timber land.. Fire has the potential to impact Hwy. 96.

CA-KNF Kidder 2 Fire: 158 acres of timber, 32% contained. Current threats include historical and cultural sites, private timber land and Spotted Owl habitat.

CA-SHF Rams Horn Fire: 280 acres , timber, 100% contained.

The National Weather Service Reno has issued a Fire Weather Watch in effect for Sunday afternoon into Monday morning for gusty winds and low humidity. General area includes Northeast California and far Northwest Nevada. Specific areas include Fire Weather Zones 270, 271, 272, 278 and 458 in Northern Washoe County.

CA-SCU Stuhr Fire: 190 acres of grass, 100% contained. This will be the last report unless significant activity occurs.

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