FIRE WEATHER AND INFO 10/12/18

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
To: ALL UNITS From: EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
Ph: OFFICE:(760) 559-3032
RADIO:(HAM) KG6ZHW
COUNTY F.D RADIO: #733784 COM-330 Date: 10/12/18
SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.: 92

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

Southern California Area
Preparedness Level: (PL 2 )

Northern California Area
Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

SYNOP:
LOCALLY GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS FRIDAY…
…VERY DRY WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK…

Offshore flow and foothill winds will develop late tonight and peak Friday morning, most favored for the west-facing foothills. Fortunately, the air will still be quite moist, so the fire growth
potential stays in check. Offshore flow develops Sunday night, peaks Monday then weakens Tuesday through Wednesday. This will be a drier and stronger event, but will follow on the heels of wetting rain. Nevertheless, thresholds for wind and humidity may be met.

An area of low pressure currently off Point Conception will move inland over Southern California Saturday. Another area of low pressure will drop into the Great Basin from Canada Sunday and then drop into the Desert Southwest Monday through Wednesday. This low will open and move off to the east late next week. Meanwhile, high pressure will approach the California Coast from the Pacific Ocean Sunday through Tuesday. The area of high pressure will weaken a little Wednesday through the end of next week.

• Northeast to east winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph will surface across the mountains and below the canyons and passes of Southern California through this afternoon.

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across Southern California tonight through Saturday afternoon.

• Most locations across Southern California will receive less than a half inch of rainfall.

• Maximum temperatures will be near to a little below normal through Sunday, with mid 50s to mid 60s across the mountains and 70s to low 80s in the valleys.

• Northeast winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph will surface across the mountains and below the canyons and passes of Southern California Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

• Winds will decrease Tuesday afternoon and then there will be locally gusty offshore winds across Southern California Tuesday night through the end of next week.

• Minimum humidity will drop into the single digits and teens Monday and Tuesday and then increase to 10% to 25% Wednesday through the end of next week.

• Maximum temperatures will be around 5 degrees above normal Monday through the end of next week, with 60s to low 70s across the mountains and upper 70s and 80s in the valleys.

POTENTIAL REGIONAL IMPACT LEVEL
Confidence Level: Moderate
Chances for Rain This weekend
Impacts: Minor flooding possible in San Diego County.
Low risk of impacts to the Holy and Cranston burn scars.

Details & Locations:
San Diego: 0.25 to 0.95 inch, highest in the mountains.
Orange County, Inland Empire and lower deserts: 0.15 to 0.25 inch.
High Desert: Less than 0.10 inch.

Timing: Friday night through Sunday morning.

High Surf and Minor Coastal Flooding
Impacts: Dangerous swimming conditions.
Minor coastal flooding due to astronomical high tides.

Details & Locations: Orange and San Diego County beaches.

Timing: Through Friday.

Santa Ana winds early next week:
Impacts Increased wildfire danger, possibly meeting thresholds Monday through Wednesday Morning.

Details & Locations:
Gusty easterly winds in the mountains and foothills tonight into Friday but humidities remain elevated.
Very dry and windy conditions in and west of the mountains early next week.

Timing: Strongest winds and lowest humidity Monday through Wednesday.

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
Generally dry conditions are expected today with increasing rain and thunder chances south of I-15 tonight lasting into Saturday. This activity will be followed by a cold front on Sunday bringing breezy and cool conditions to the area which will persist into the early part of next week. Improving conditions are expected Tuesday onward with gradually warming temperatures.

FORECAST DETAILS
San Bern / Clark / Mohave Counties
Late Tonight and Saturday
Rain chances mainly confined to areas south of I-15.
There is a small chance light rain could spread as far north as the I-15 corridor, but it’s not currently expected.
Widespread rainfall of 0.10″-0.25″ expected south of I-15, with localized pockets up to 1″ possible.
A few thunderstorms are possible.

Sunday
Gusty north winds will spread across the region.
Strongest winds expected along the Colorado River, Lake Mead, Mohave, and Havasu.

Inyo / Esmeralda / Nye / Lincoln Counties
Generally dry conditions are expected across these areas, however, gusty north winds will spread into the region Sunday. In addition, ,much cooler air will move in with the first freeze of the season likely for much of the Southern Great Basin and Northern Owens Valley including Bishop.

SPECIAL NOTES:

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
• There will be little or no fire activity across the region through this weekend.

• The potential for large fire will become elevated across Southern California Monday and Tuesday and “High Risk” Days may be needed due to strong offshore winds along with very low humidity.

• The best chance for a large fire will be over Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, where little or no rainfall has occurred so far this month.

• Rapid rates of spread and long range spotting will be likely if a new ignition were to occur in a windy location.

• Dead fuels will dry out rapidly early next week.

• Expect light to moderate initial attack activity across the region next week.

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING

NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to
significant fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

ZONE 1: L.A. – VENTURA; OCT.12-14 NO RATE OCT. 15 MODERATE OCT 16. MARGINAL

ZONE 2: ORANGE-INLAND EMPIRE: OCT.12-14 NO RATE OCT 15-16 MARGINAL 17 NR

ZONE 3: SAN DIEGO: OCT.12 – 14 NO RATE OCT 15-16 MARGINAL OCT 17 NO RATE

ZONE 4: SANTA BARBARA: OCT.12 – 17 NO RATE

————————————————————————————–
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy…becoming mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..73 to 78. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 degrees.
Min humidity……..30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 7 to 17 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……1 percent. LAL……………..1.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Min temperature…..51 to 57. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Max humidity……..55 to 65 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 15 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening becoming variable 3 to 6 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……15 percent. LAL……………..1.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy. Chance of showers.
Max temperature…..72 to 77. 24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..25 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west around 6 mph becoming east 6 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……21 percent. LAL……………..1.

WRIGHTWOOD:
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. East wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Friday Night
A chance of showers after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Light west wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

PHELAN:
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Light and variable wind becoming east 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Friday Night
A chance of showers after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Light and variable wind becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

TRONA:
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 84. Northeast wind 7 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. North wind around 6 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Light north wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the evening.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
.FRIDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….81-86. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….21-30 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East 10 to 15 mph becoming 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..4.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers after midnight.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….53-58. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….51-56 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 11 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Northeast wind up to 10 mph shifting to the north after midnight.
* 10000 ft msl….East 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….10 percent.
* LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.

.SATURDAY… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers in the morning. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….79-84. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….21-31 percent. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….20 percent. * LAL……………..1 increasing to 3 in the afternoon.
* Haines Index……..4.

BAKER:
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 85. North northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. North wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Saturday
Isolated showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Calm wind.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS:
.FRIDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….76-81. * 7000 feet…….61-66. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 7 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….19-22 percent. 7000 feet…..30-40 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 7 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..2.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….46-51. 7000 feet…….23-28. 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor…41-46 percent. 7000 feet…..56-61 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 11 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
* Upper slopes….North winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..2.

.SATURDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….78-83. * 7000 feet…….64-69. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….12-15 percent. 7000 feet…….19-29 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 8 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..3.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..78 to 87. 24 HR TREND……Up 11 degrees.
Min humidity……..25 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……1 percent. LAL……………..1.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather….Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Min temperature…..55 to 61. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Max humidity……..80 to 90 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds south 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……33 percent. LAL……………..1.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..69 to 76. 24 HR TREND……Down 9 degrees.
Min humidity……..45 to 55 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 25 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 14 mph. Gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……47 percent. LAL……………..1.

DEVORE:
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 25 mph becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
Friday Night
A chance of showers after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 55. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

CHINO HILLS:
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 84. East wind 5 to 15 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Friday Night
A chance of showers after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible

COLTON:
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
A chance of showers, mainly after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 59. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255/CAZ256):
.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy…becoming mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..54 to 64 above 6000 feet to 63 to 72 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 8 degrees.
Min humidity……..35 to 45 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds east 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds east 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……2 percent. LAL……………..1.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog after midnight.
Min temperature…..31 to 41 above 6000 feet to 43 to 53 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Max humidity…60 to 70 percent on desert slopes to 75 to 85 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND…Up 20 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds east 6 to 11 mph. Gusts to 25 mph in the evening.
RIDGETOP………Winds east6 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……35 percent. LAL……………..1.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..51 to 61 above 6000 feet to 60 to 70 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 4 degrees.
Min humidity….35 to 45 percent on desert slopes to 45 to 55 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND…Up 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds north 6 to 8 mph becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.
RIDGETOP………Winds northeast 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……60 percent. LAL……………..1.

LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 72. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
A chance of showers, mainly after 11pm. Areas of fog after 11pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
Showers likely, mainly after 11am. Areas of fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 46. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Friday Night
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
Showers likely, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. East wind 5 to 15 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 37. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible

BANNING PASS:
.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy.
Max temperature…..84 to 89. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Min humidity……..25 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west around 6 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy. Chance of showers.
Min temperature…..62 to 71. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Max humidity……..50 to 60 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds south around 6 mph becoming west around 6 mph after midnight.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……40 percent. LAL……………..1.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy. Chance of showers.
Max temperature…..82 to 87. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Min humidity……..30 to 40 percent. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……38 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ261):
.FRIDAY… * Sky/weather…………………Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..68-81. * 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..30-42 pct. * 24 hr trend………………5 pct wetter.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..East 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… * Sky/weather….Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening becoming chance of showers after midnight.
* Min Temperature……………..55-64. * 24 hr trend………………3 degrees warmer.
* Max Humidity………………..52-64 pct. * 24 hr trend………………10 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northeast 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming northwest after midnight.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southeast 5 to 15 mph in the evening becoming light and variable after midnight.
* Chance of Precip…………….40 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.

.SATURDAY… * Sky/weather……..Partly sunny. Chance of showers . isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature……………..66-79. * 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..35-48 pct. * 24 hr trend………………5 pct wetter.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Light and variable.
* Chance of Precip…..40 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)….40 percent. * LAL…1 in the morning becoming 2 in
the afternoon.
* Haines High Level Index………3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
FRIDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….83-88. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….22-32 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 10 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….9500 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Good.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….57-62. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….56-61 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 10 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….10 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..3.

.SATURDAY… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers through the day. Scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….81-86. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….23-33 percent. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable becoming east around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….25 percent. * LAL……………..1 increasing to 3 in the afternoon.
* Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….9800 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Fair.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER:
.FRIDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: * 4000 feet…….77-82. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: * 4000 feet…….22-30 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 9 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….East 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….8200 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..Northeast around 10 knots in the morning becoming light.
* Ventilation………Good.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy.
* Min temperature: * 4000 feet…….48-53. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: * 4000 feet…….47-52 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 16 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..3.

.SATURDAY… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the morning.
* Max temperature: * 4000 feet…….77-82. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….16-26 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 5 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….5 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….8300 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Poor.

*************************** OUT OF COUNTY *************************************
…LOCALLY GUSTY BUT MOIST OFFSHORE WINDS FRIDAY…

…ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY…

…CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO VERY DRY AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW…

LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ247/CAZ249):
.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..80-88. 24 hr trend……Up 10.
Min humidity……..25-35 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 13.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Min temperature…..58-62. Max humidity……..80-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers.
Max temperature…..68-75.
Min humidity……..55-65 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……10 percent.

LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY:
.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..79-87. 24 hr trend……Up 10.
Min humidity……..25-35 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 12.
20-foot winds…….North to northeast 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph becoming southeast 6-12 mph late. Strongest west valley.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear then becoming partly cloudy.
Min temperature…..51-61.
Max humidity……..75-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers.
Max temperature…..68-75.
Min humidity……..55-70 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming south 5-10 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……10 percent.

SANTA CLARITA VALLEY:
.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..78-84. 24 hr trend……Up 9.
Min humidity……..25-30 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 12.
20-foot winds…….Northeast increasing to 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear then becoming partly cloudy.
Min temperature…..52-60.
Max humidity……..60-80 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers.
Max temperature…..70-76.
Min humidity……..35-50 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph becoming south 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……10 percent.

SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA:
.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..72-82 except 83-86 interior slopes. 24 hr trend……Up 8.
Min humidity……..25-45 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 12.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….East 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear then becoming partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Min temperature…..51-61.
Max humidity……..75-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…Variable 3-8 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….East 6-12 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the evening.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers.
Max temperature…..63-71.
Min humidity……..55-75 percent.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…Variable 3-6 mph becoming south 6-12 mph with local canyon gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….East 6-12 mph becoming north in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……10 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ253):
.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..71-81 low elevations to 61-68 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Up 9.
Min humidity……..25-40 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 16.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…East 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph becoming 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph late.
Ridges/upr slopes….East 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph becoming10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph late.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear then becoming partly cloudy.
Min temperature…..53-61 low elevations to 44-51 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..55-75 percent.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…East 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming northeast 6-12 mph after midnight.
Ridges/upr slopes….East 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming 6-12 mph after midnight.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..66-74 low elevations to 57-64 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..40-60 percent.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…Variable 3-8 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……10 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..72-79. 24 hr trend……Up 6.
Min humidity……..25-30 percent. 24 hr trend……Down 8.
20-foot winds…….East increasing to 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear then becoming partly cloudy.
Min temperature…..49-57.
Max humidity……..55-70 percent.
20-foot winds…….East 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening becoming variable 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Max temperature…..72-79.
Min humidity……..25-35 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ298):
.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature…..75-80. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-8 degrees.
Min Humidity……..24-34 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 7-15 mph.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….8900 ft AGL.
Transport Winds…..East 15 to 20 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of sprinkles.
Min Temperature…..54-59. 24 HR Trend……Up 2-4 degrees.
Max Humidity……..51-61 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-9 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 7-14 mph in the early evening becoming north 5-10 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Partly sunny. Chance of sprinkles.
Max Temperature…..74-79. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..18-28 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 1-3 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….North 3-7 mph in the early morning shifting to the northeast 6-12 mph afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Very good.
Mixing height…….8600 ft AGL.
Transport Winds…..Northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

La Jolla CA
Beach Hazards Statement until October 12, 11:00 PM PDT
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Showers likely, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday
Showers likely, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Poway CA
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Showers likely, mainly after 11pm. Increasing clouds, with a low around 61. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light northwest. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

CEDAR CITY Ut.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Friday through Wednesday

A hard freeze is possible Sunday and Monday mornings for most valley locations outside of heavily urban areas and areas near the Arizona border.

Friday
Sunny, with a high near 61. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 39. North wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 63. Light northeast wind.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 35. North wind around 8 mph.

====================================================================
THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
2015: Unseasonable high pressure and warm ocean waters led to very warm October days and the warmest October nights on record from 10/10 through 10/15. In San Diego, five out of the six highest October minimum temperatures on record occurred. The highest minimum temperature in any October was 76° on 10/10 and again on 10/13. This is only two degrees off the highest minimum temperature for any time of year! (Only seven nights in history recorded 77 or 78°, all of which occurred during September, meaning these October nights were warmer than any night in July or August in San Diego). On 10/10 the highest minimum temperature in October was also recorded in Chula Vista (73, only three degrees off all-time highest), Oceanside Harbor (74, only two degrees off all-time highest), and El Cajon (tied 69). On 10/13 Santa Ana recorded 78°, the highest October minimum temperature on record. The top six warmest October nights on the Chula Vista record occurred this month, and the top five in El Cajon occurred this month.

1987: A prolonged period of showers from the remnants of Hurricane Ramon started on 10/5 and ended on this day. Rainfall amounts ranged from 0.75 inch at the coast to two inches in the mountains. 2.14 inches fell at Camp Pendleton, 2.08 inches in Fallbrook and 0.69 inch fell at Lindbergh Field. Minor flood damage occurred.

1985: A thunderstorm produced wind gusts close to 80 mph near Encinitas. Tree and power pole damage was widespread, and the roof was ripped off a duplex.

1950: Strong high pressure brought record high temperatures. It was 93° in Idyllwild, the highest temperature on record for October. This also occurred on 10/1/1980.

1924: An early season cold snap gripped Southern California from 10/11 to 10/13. On this day it was 34° in Santa Ana, the lowest temperature on record for October. This also occurred on 10/21/1949 and on 10/31/1935. It was 32° in Escondido, the earliest freezing temperature of the season on record. It is also the lowest temperature on record for October, which also occurred the next day on 10/13.

1889: A monsoon-type thunderstorm brought 7.58 inches of rain to Encinitas in eight hours from 10 pm this day to 6 am on 10/13. 0.44 inch fell in San Diego.
=========================================================================
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Sergio, located a few hundred miles west of the central portion of the Baja California peninsula.

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico is producing limited showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it drifts toward the west-northwest or northwest, closer to the coast of Mexico. Further development is unlikely after this weekend since the disturbance
will either be near the coast, or inland.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

SERGIO WEAKENING AS IT QUICKLY APPROACHES THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR…
…RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA…

SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…26.1N 113.8W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 113.8 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will make landfall in the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur later this morning and then move over mainland northwestern Mexico by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening should continue today, but Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm, then weaken to a tropical depression, and degenerate into a remnant low while moving over the the
northwestern Mexico state of Sonora. Dissipation should occur Saturday night or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through Friday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain.

Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula later tonight, and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the
peninsula tonight or early Friday. Gusty winds could reach the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

==============================================================================
CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @0705 hrs. TEMP: 580 RH: 74% WIND: NE 3 G 9
0.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH:0.00” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
————————————————————————————–
FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 1)

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)
NUMBER OF FIRES AND ACRES:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2018 through October 7, 2018 5,213 621,140
January 1, 2017 through October 7, 2017 5,219 239,593
5 year average (same interval) 4,900 215,264
2018 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 6,300 1,366,222

Southern California Area (PL 2 )
No Reportable Incidents

Northern California Area (PL 2 )
No Reportable Incidents

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