FIRE WEATHER AND INFO 10/13/18

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
To: ALL UNITS From: EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
Ph: OFFICE:(760) 559-3032
RADIO:(HAM) KG6ZHW
COUNTY F.D RADIO: #733784 COM-330

Date: 10/7/18

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.: 93

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

Southern California Area
Preparedness Level: (PL 2 )

Northern California Area
Preparedness Level (PL 2 )

SYNOP:
Strong and dry offshore winds Sunday night through Tuesday…

…Fire Weather Watch in effect…

Despite the wetting rains expected through Saturday, Sunday will have a drying and offshore trend to allow the fine fuels to dry out. Strong offshore winds will develop and very dry air will move into the region Sunday night, leading to critical fire weather conditions Monday through Tuesday. Strongest winds with isolated gusts over 50 mph are expected in the foothills, but large portions of the valleys and even the southern Orange County
coast will get strong winds as well. Dew points and humidity will drop like a rock on Monday, with widespread RH 5 to 20 percent away from the coast and very poor recovery Monday night. Winds decrease a little on Tuesday, but conditions will remain critical. Humidity recovery will be better and winds lighter Tuesday night.

An area of low pressure is currently pushing inland near the California/Baja border. This low will open and move off to the east tonight. Another low will form over Arizona Monday as a trough dropping down the Great Basin cuts off from the main flow. This low will sit and spin over Arizona through the end of next week. Strong high pressure over the Pacific Ocean will approach the West Coast Monday and Tuesday and then it will weaken Wednesday through the end of next week.

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across Southern California through this afternoon, with up to an additional half inch of rain possible.

• Maximum temperatures will be near to a little below normal through Sunday, with mid 50s to mid 60s across the mountains and 70s to low 80s in the valleys.

• Northeast winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph will surface across the mountains and below the canyons and passes of Southern California Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

• Winds will decrease and become less widespread Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning and then become light by Wednesday afternoon.

• Minimum humidity will drop into the single digits and teens Monday and Tuesday and then increase to 10% to 25% Wednesday through the end of next week.

• Temperatures will warm to around 5 degrees above normal next week, with 60s to low 70s across the mountains and upper 70s and 80s in the valleys.

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
Showers and thunderstorms will skirt our southern areas today as a low pressure system moves across the region. This will be followed by a strong cold front Sunday bringing gusty north winds, and the first freeze of the season to parts of the Owens Valley and southern Great Basin Monday morning. Gradually moderating
temperatures and dry conditions are expected most of next week.

FORECAST DETAILS
San Bern / Clark / Mohave Counties
Late Tonight and Saturday
Rain chances mainly confined to areas south of I-15.
Widespread rainfall of 0.10″-0.25″ expected south of I-40, with localized pockets up to 1″ possible.
Very light amounts expected further north.
A few thunderstorms are possible.

Sunday
Gusty north winds will spread across the region.
Strongest winds expected along the Colorado River, Lake Mead, Mohave, and Havasu.

Inyo / Esmeralda / Nye / Lincoln Counties
Generally dry conditions are expected across these areas, however, gusty north winds will spread into the region Sunday. In addition, much cooler air will move in with the first freeze of the season likely for much of the Southern Great Basin and Northern Owens Valley

including Bishop. A Freeze warning is now in effect for Monday morning.

SPECIAL NOTES:

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
• Little or no fire activity will continue across the region through this weekend.

• The potential for large fire will become high across Southern California Monday and Tuesday as strong offshore winds combine with single digit humidity.

• Ventura County and Western Los Angeles County will have the best chance of getting a large fire because this is where rainfall has been the least.

• Rapid rates of spread and long range spotting will be likely if a new ignition were to occur in a windy location.

• Dead fuels will dry out rapidly starting Monday.

• Expect light to moderate initial attack across Southern California next week.

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING

NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to
significant fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

ZONE 1: L.A.–VENTURA;OCT.13-14 NO RATE OCT. 15-16 MODERATE. OCT 17-18 NO RATE

ZONE 2:ORANGE-INLAND EMPIRE: NO RATE OCT. 15-16 MODERATE. OCT 17-18 NO RATE

ZONE 3: SAN DIEGO: NO RATE OCT. 15-16 MODERATE. OCT 17-18 NO RATE

ZONE 4: SANTA BARBARA: OCT. 15-18 NO RATE

————————————————————————————–
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy…becoming partly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..67 to 73. 24 HR TREND……Down 7 degrees.
Min humidity……..30 to 40 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 15 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 13 mph. Gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……59 percent. LAL……………..2.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Min temperature…..47 to 54. 24 HR TREND……Down 4 degrees.
Max humidity……..55 to 65 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……10 percent. LAL……………..1.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..71 to 76. 24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..10 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 35 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 11 mph becoming north 9 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……1 percent. LAL……………..1.

WRIGHTWOOD:
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Light northwest wind becoming north 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 60. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 37. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

PHELAN:
Saturday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers before 11pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 51. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 70. West wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 43.

TRONA:
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the evening.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 80. North northeast wind 8 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50. North wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
.SATURDAY… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….76-81. 24 hr trend…..On average down 5 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….28-38 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 8 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….55 percent decreasing to 5 percent in the afternoon. * LAL……………..2.
* Haines Index……..3.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy with isolated showers.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….49-54. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 degrees.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….53-58 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 9 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph becoming northwest up to 10 mph after midnight.
* 10000 ft msl….North 15 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..3.

.SUNDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….76-81. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….7-17 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 21 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 15 to 25 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..5.

BAKER:
Saturday
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Light west wind.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Calm wind becoming north northeast around 5 mph after midnight.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 81. North wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49. North wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS:
.SATURDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….77-82. 7000 feet…….64-69. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….10-15 percent. 7000 feet…….15-25 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 9 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..4.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….46-51. 7000 feet…….22-27. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….26-31 percent. 7000 feet…36-41 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 12 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Upper slopes….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 20 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..4.

.SUNDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….74-79. * 7000 feet…….58-63. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….8-10 percent. 7000 feet…….10-20 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 5 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Upper slopes….North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 20 mph shifting to the northwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..5.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max temperature…..63 to 73. 24 HR TREND……Down 13 degrees.
Min humidity……..55 to 65 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 30 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 12 mph. Gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……65 percent. LAL……………..2.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening.
Min temperature…..49 to 58. 24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.
Max humidity……..85 to 95 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the evening becoming variable 2 to 5 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……15 percent. LAL……………..1.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy…becoming mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..74 to 81. 24 HR TREND……Up 9 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 25 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 30 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 12 mph. Gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……2 percent. LAL……………..1.

DEVORE:
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
Saturday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Light west wind becoming southwest 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 79. Breezy, with a light and variable wind becoming north 20 to 25 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 54. Windy.

CHINO HILLS:
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
Saturday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 77. West wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Breezy.

COLTON:
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
Saturday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Light west wind increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 58.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255/CAZ256):
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max temperature…..48 to 58 above 6000 feet to 66 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 degrees.
Min humidity…40 to 50 percent on desert slopes to 50 to 60 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND…Up 20 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds west 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds north 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……65 percent. LAL……………..2.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy…becoming partly cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening.
Min temperature…..27 to 37 above 6000 feet to 38 to 48 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.
Max humidity…50 to 60 percent on desert slopes to 90 to 100 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND..Little change.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds northwest 6 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds north 7 to 16 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……27 percent. LAL……………..1.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..54 to 64 above 6000 feet to 61 to 70 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Up 11 degrees.
Min humidity…10 to 15 percent on desert slopes to 15 to 25 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND..Down 35 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds north 7 to 17 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds north 8 to 17 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……2 percent. LAL……………..1.

LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
Saturday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 43. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 67. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 41. Breezy.

BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
Saturday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. North wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 56. North wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 32.

BANNING PASS:
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..79 to 84. 24 HR TREND……Down 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..35 to 45 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 11 to 21 mph. Gusts to 30 mph…becoming 40 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……44 percent. LAL……………..2.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Min temperature…..57 to 67. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Max humidity……..45 to 55 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 11 to 21 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……11 percent. LAL……………..1.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..85 to 90. 24 HR TREND……Up 6 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 20 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 25 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 6 to 16 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……2 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ261):
Flood Advisory until October 13, 10:15 AM PDT
.SATURDAY… * Sky/weather…………………Partly sunny. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning becoming chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature……………..64-77. * 24 hr trend………………4 degrees cooler.
* Min Humidity………………..43-58 pct. * 24 hr trend………………11 pct wetter.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Light and variable in the morning becoming north 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Chance of Precip….60 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…60 percent. * LAL…2 in the morning becoming 3 in
the afternoon.
* Haines High Level Index………3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… * Sky/weather……….Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms .
* Min Temperature……………..52-61. * 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Max Humidity………………..54-69 pct. * 24 hr trend………………17 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………North 15 to 25 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….20 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..2.

.SUNDAY… * Sky/weather…………………Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..68-80. * 24 hr trend………………3 degrees warmer.
* Min Humidity………………..22-29 pct. 24 hr trend………………26 pct drier.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………North 10 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
.SATURDAY… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy. Numerous rain showers in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
* Max temperature: Valley floor….78-83. 24 hr trend…..On average down 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….31-41 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 8 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northeast up to 10 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….65 percent decreasing to 10 percent in the afternoon.
* LAL……………..2.
* Haines Index……..3.
* Mixing height…….8000 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Fair.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms in the evening. Isolated rain showers through the night.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….54-59. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 degrees.
* Max humidity: Valley floor….61-66 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..2 decreasing to 1 after midnight.
* Haines Index……..3.

.SUNDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….76-81. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….10-18 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 22 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….North wind 10 to 20 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….North 15 to 20 mph increasing to northwest 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….6700 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..North 15 to 30 knots.
* Ventilation………Excellent.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER:
.SATURDAY… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers in the morning.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….76-81. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….20-30 percent. 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable becoming north around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….10 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..3.
* Mixing height…….8800 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Marginal.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy.
* Min temperature: 4000 feet…….45-50. 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 degrees.
* Max humidity: 4000 feet…….42-47 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 9 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph becoming north up to 10 mph after midnight.
* 10000 ft msl….North 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..4.

.SUNDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.
* Max temperature: 4000 feet…….68-73. 24 hr trend…..On average down 8 degrees.
* Min humidity: 4000 feet…….10-15 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average down 12 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 15 to 25 mph increasing to north 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….8700 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..North 15 to 20 knots.
* Ventilation………Excellent.

*************************** OUT OF COUNTY *************************************
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES…

CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY
…ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ247/CAZ249):
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers.
Max temperature…..66-73. 24 hr trend……Down 12.
Min humidity……..60-70 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 33.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..2. CWR (>0.10 IN)……20 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy except patchy low clouds and fog after midnight.
Min temperature…..54-60.
Max humidity……..80-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny except patchy morning low clouds and fog.
Max temperature…..74-83.
Min humidity……..25-45 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY:
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..68-75. 24 hr trend……Down 11.
Min humidity……..55-70 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 30.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming south 5-10 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..2. CWR (>0.10 IN)……10 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy then becoming mostly clear.
Min temperature…..51-57.
Max humidity……..80-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….South 5-10 mph early becoming variable 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..75-85.
Min humidity……..15-30 percent.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming north to northeast 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph by the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SANTA CLARITA VALLEY:
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..68-74. 24 hr trend……Down 10.
Min humidity……..55-65 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 25.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph becoming south 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..2. CWR (>0.10 IN)……10 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy then becoming mostly clear.
Min temperature…..52-57.
Max humidity……..75-90 percent.
20-foot winds…….South 6-12 with gusts to 20 mph early becoming variable 3-6 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..78-83.
Min humidity……..10-15 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 5-10 mph becoming 8-15 mph with local gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA:
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..62-72. 24 hr trend……Down 10.
Min humidity……..60-80 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 33.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…Variable 3-6 mph becoming south 6-12 mph with local canyon gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….East 6-12 mph becoming north in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..2. CWR (>0.10 IN)……10 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy except patchy low clouds and fog after midnight.
Min temperature…..51-57.
Max humidity……..80-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…South 6-12 mph with local canyon gusts to 20 mph early becoming downslope/downvalley 3-6 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….North 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy except patchy morning low clouds and fog.
Max temperature…..68-78 except 80-85 interior slopes.
Min humidity……..25-45 percent except 50-60 percent coastal slopes and higher peaks.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…Variable 3-6 mph becoming south 6-12 mph with local canyon gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ253):
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..66-74 low elevations to 56-64 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Down 10.
Min humidity……..55-75 percent except 30-45 percent higher peaks and warmer valleys. 24 hr trend……Up 20.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…Variable 3-8 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….North 6-12 mph becoming northwest 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..2. CWR (>0.10 IN)……10 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy then becoming mostly clear.
Min temperature…..47-57.
Max humidity……..55-70 percent except 80-100 percent colder valleys.
20-foot winds……. Valleys/lwr slopes…Southwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming northwest 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph after midnight.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming northeast after midnight.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..70-80 low elevations to 57-64 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..8-18 percent.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Slight chance of showers.
Max temperature…..66-76. 24 hr trend……Down 4.
Min humidity……..35-45 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 4.
20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..2. CWR (>0.10 IN)……10 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy then becoming mostly clear.
Min temperature…..45-55.
Max humidity……..60-75 percent.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening becoming north 5-10 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..68-78.
Min humidity……..8-12 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 5-10 mph becoming 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ298):
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Partly sunny. Slight chance of sprinkles.
Max Temperature…..72-77. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..20-30 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 4-7 mph in the morning shifting to the west by afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Very good.
Mixing height…….9000 ft AGL.
Transport Winds…..North 5 to 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy then becoming clear.
Min Temperature…..50-55. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-7 degrees.
Max Humidity……..45-55 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-5 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 7-13 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

.SUNDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..76-81. 24 HR Trend……Up 3-5 degrees.
Min Humidity……..7-17 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 14-18 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….North to northeast 6-11 mph.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Excellent.
Mixing height…….6100 ft AGL.
Transport Winds…..Northeast 15 to 20 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

La Jolla CA
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING…
* Surf…3-5 FT with local sets to 6 FT. Highest surf north of Encinitas.

Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday
Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 69. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 61.

Poway CA
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

CEDAR CITY Ut.
HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 63. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Clear, with a low around 32. North northeast wind around 7 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 45. North wind 6 to 13 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 23. North wind 8 to 14 mph.

====================================================================
THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:

2015: Unseasonable high pressure and warm ocean waters led to very warm October days and the warmest October nights on record from 10/10 through 10/15. In San Diego, five out of the six highest October minimum temperatures on record occurred. The highest minimum temperature in any October was 76° on 10/10 and again on this day. This is only two degrees off the highest minimum temperature for any time of year! (Only seven nights in history recorded 77 or 78°, all of which occurred during September, meaning these October nights were warmer than any night in July or August in San Diego). On 10/10 the highest minimum temperature in October was also recorded in Chula Vista (73, only three degrees off all-time highest), Oceanside Harbor (74, only two degrees off all-time highest), and El Cajon (tied 69). On this day Santa Ana recorded 78°, the highest October minimum temperature on record. The top six warmest October nights on the Chula Vista record occurred this month, and the top five in El Cajon occurred this month.

2006: A thunderstorm dropped 0.51 inch of rain in five minutes and 1.81 inch in 30 minutes in San Bernardino. 18 homes and businesses and two vehicles were damaged by flooding. Big sinkholes were left in a road. One man required rescue from his vehicle. Mud and debris were left on roads. Several funnel clouds and waterspouts were observed off the coast of Catalina Island.
1972: A 289 day stretch of rainless days finally ended in Indio, with 0.05 inches of rain.

1956: Cuyamaca set a record low for the month with a frigid reading of 15°.

1950: Elsinore reached 110°, the highest recorded temperature in October.

1942: A midnight thunderstorm hit Upland with 2.25 inches of rain in just over one hour. Mud and debris washed down Euclid Avenue and flooded at least one home. Four calves at a dairy in Ontario were washed away.

1924: An early season cold snap gripped Southern California from 10/11 to this day. It was 32° in Escondido, the lowest temperature on record for October. This also occurred the previous day on 10/12.

1889: A monsoon-type thunderstorm brought 7.58 inches of rain to Encinitas in eight hours from 10 pm 10/12 to 6 am on this day. 0.44 inch fell in San Diego.
=========================================================================
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite-derived surface winds and radar data from Acapulco indicate that a small but well-defined low pressure system has developed less than 100 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become much better organized overnight, and further development of the low is possible during the next few days while the system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward parallel to the southern coast of Mexico. However, only a slight deviation to the right or north of the expected track would bring the small disturbance and its heavy rains closer to or even inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of this system as well as products issued by the Mexican Meteorological
Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

==============================================================================
CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @0730hrs TEMP: 530 RH: 92% WIND: SE 5 G 11
0.49” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH:0.49” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
————————————————————————————–
FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 1)

National Interagency Coordination Center Incident Management Situation Report Friday, October 12, 2018 – 0800 MT National Preparedness Level 1

Initial Attack Activity: Light (203) new fires
New large incidents: 2
Large fires contained: 4
Uncontained large fires:** 6
Area Command teams committed: 0
NIMOs committed: 1
Type 1 IMTs committed: 0
Type 2 IMTs committed: 2

Active Incident Resource Summary
GACC Incidents Cumulative Acres Crews Engines Helicopters Total Personnel
AICC 0 0 0 0 0 0
NWCC 5 327,138 10 12 0 571
ONCC 2 67,200 15 44 1 804
OSCC 0 0 0 0 0 0
NRCC 2 11,920 0 0 0 2
GBCC 7 455,417.12 2 5 1 101
SWCC 1 500 0 0 0 2
RMCC 3 48,705.1 0 5 2 32
EACC 0 0 0 0 0 0
SACC 3 250.1 0 7 0 844
Total 23 911,130.32 27 73 4 2,356

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)
NUMBER OF FIRES AND ACRES:
Interval Fires Acres
January 1, 2018 through October 7, 2018 5,213 621,140
January 1, 2017 through October 7, 2017 5,219 239,593
5 year average (same interval) 4,900 215,264
2018 Combined YTD (CALFIRE & US Forest Service) 6,300 1,366,222

Southern California Area (PL 2 )
No Reportable Incidents
New fires: 50
New large incidents: 0
Uncontained large fires: 0

Northern California Area (PL 2 )
New fires: 64
New large incidents: 1
Uncontained large fires: 1

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