SBD FIRE WEATHER AND INFO 10/11/17

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO            

To:     ALL UNITS From: EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
Ph: OFFICE:(760) 559-3032  RADIO:(HAM) KG6ZHW

COUNTY F.D RADIO: #733784 COM-330  

Date: 10/11/17
SKYWARN: NORMAL

NETS ON WED  NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX BRIEFS TABLE  MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.: 30

 

National Preparedness Level 2 

Southern California Area

Preparedness Level: (PL 3) 

Northern California Area

Preparedness Level (PL 4) SYNOP:

***North winds possible Thursday night through Friday night***

***Offshore winds and warmer temperatures this weekend***

The cooling trend that began yesterday will continue through Thursday as temperatures trend downward 2-4 degrees each day. By Thursday, highs will be in the 60s along the coast to the 70s in the valleys.  Local west to northwest winds of 10-20 mph will be possible this afternoon along the central coast and in the southern Owens Valley into the central Mojave.  RH should be higher this afternoon over most areas.  A trough heading into the Great Basin will generate another windy period beginning Thursday night which will last through next Sunday night or Monday.  Thursday night, local north winds of 15-30 mph will be possible across Santa Barbara County, the I-5 Corridor and the Kern County Mountains. Local RH may fall into the 20-30% by early Friday morning with these areas seeing very low RH by the afternoon.  Similar windspeeds will be possible Friday night. This weekend, the flow will transition to a northeast, offshore orientation which will cause the windy areas to shift into Ventura County, the Santa Clarita Valley, the Santa Ana Canyon and other areas which typically see windy weather during offshore flow. The winds in these areas will increase Saturday, likely peaking in strength Saturday night into Sunday.  In general, winds during the weekend look far weaker than those that occurred Monday.  The windiest areas will see velocities in the 15-30 mph with locally higher gusts possible Sunday morning. Temperatures over coastal and valley areas will climb back toward the 90 degree mark Saturday and Sunday across Southern California.  Cooler, onshore flow will quickly return by Tuesday as a wetter system takes aim at the Pacific Northwest and the far northern part of California.

 NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)

A few gusts out of the east will be possible this morning across  south-central Arizona, but will weaken this afternoon. Light and  diurnal winds will persist into Friday. Temperatures will peak  in the mid-upper 90s today, before cooling a couple degrees each  day through Friday to just above seasonal normals. Relative  humidity will fall into the teens and single digits each afternoon  with moderate overnight recoveries. Skies will remain mostly  clear with no chance of precipitation.

 

SPECIAL NOTES:

Weather Summary

 

A Santa Ana weather pattern will return Saturday and Sunday bringing gusty northeast winds in the passes and canyons, very low humidities and above average temperatures. This event will be similar to the event that impacted our area Sunday and Monday. Strongest winds will be in the Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills, through and below the Cajon Pass into the Inland Empire, and through the San Gorgonio Pass. It won’t be quite as windy in San Diego County Mountains and Foothills, but the fire weather threat will still be high in that area too. Sunday looks to be the greatest fire weather threat when the strongest winds, hottest weather and lowest humidities impact the area. Continued warm and dry Monday but with lighter winds. Gradual cooling with increasing humidities Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing onshore flow.

 

Weather Threats and Impacts:

 

Very warm Saturday through Monday. Extremely low humidity and gusty Santa Ana winds across mountains and foothills, strongest on Sunday. Elevated fire weather threat.

 

Forecast Winds:

 

  • Offshore flow northeast winds developing Saturday morning, strongest Sunday morning with gusts 20-30 mph portions of Inland Empire and in mountain passes and canyons, and foothills with gusts to 50 mph.
  • Offshore flow weakens Monday.

   Confidence: High

 

Forecast Relative Humidity:

  • Very low humidity Saturday through Monday. Recovery Tuesday and Wednesday.  
  • Confidence:  High

Timing:

 

  • Saturday through Monday. Strongest winds, hottest weather and lowest humidity Sunday.

 

Confidence: Moderately High

 

 

Locations Impacted:

Gusty winds on Highway 91 (strongest through the pass), I-15 and I-215 below the Cajon Pass, I-10 San Gorgonio Pass, I-8 pass through the mountains and foothills.

 

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:

Large fire potential will be lower today and most of Thursday due to cooler temperatures, light winds and higher RH. But conditions will again become favorable for the development of large fires Thursday night through Saturday morning in southern Santa Barbara County and the I-5 Corridor as well as adjacent areas of the Angeles National Forest.  Low RH will develop by Friday morning which will continue unabated through the weekend with poor recovery expected at night.  The potential for large fires will spread into much of Southern California over the weekend due to gusty winds, low RH and very warm temperatures.   Although winds will not be nearly as strong, fuels are extremely dry and dead fuel moisture is near record low readings across much of Southern California.  Expect very active fire behavior with long range spotting and high ignition components over the weekend.  IA will likely be moderate Thursday night through Sunday night.  Much less fire activity is expected next week.

 

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING

 

ZONE 1: L.A. – VENTURA; NO RATE OCT. 14/15 MARGINAL

 

ZONE 2: ORANGE-INLAND EMPIRE: NO RATE

 

ZONE 3: SAN DIEGO: NO RATE

 

ZONE 4: SANTA BARBARA: NO RATE OCT. 12/13 MARGINAL

 

————————————————————————————–APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):

WEDNESDAY…Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.

Max temperature…..78 to 86.

24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.

Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent.

24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 6 to 8 mph with gusts to 20 mph

becoming south 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph

in the afternoon.

LAL……………..1.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Sky/weather………Mostly clear.

Min temperature…..42 to 52.

24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.

Max humidity……..35 to 45 percent.

24 HR TREND……Up 10 percent.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 13 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.

Max temperature…..74 to 81.

24 HR TREND……Down 5 degrees.

Min humidity……..10 percent.

24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northwest 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 20

mph.

LAL……………..1.

 WRIGHTWOOD:

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 66. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 48. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 62. West wind around 5 mph becoming north in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph

 PHELAN:

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 75. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 48. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 72. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 46. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

 TRONA:

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 88. Light south southwest wind increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Southwest wind 9 to 14 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 84. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming northwest after midnight

 

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):

WEDNESDAY…* Sky/Weather………Sunny.

* Max temperature:

*     Valley floor….87-92.

*     24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.

* Min humidity:

*     Valley floor….6-10 percent.

*     24 hr trend…..Little change.

* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):

*     Valley floor….South wind up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15

mph in the afternoon.

*     10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph.

* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.

* LAL……………..1.

* Haines Index……..4.

 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.

* Min temperature:

*     Valley floor….48-53.

*     24 hr trend…..Little change.

* Max humidity:

*     Valley floor….32-37 percent.

*     24 hr trend…..On average up 7 percent.

* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):

*     Valley floor….Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

*     10000 ft msl….Southwest 15 to 25 mph.

* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.

* LAL……………..1.

* Haines Index……..5.

 

.THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.

* Max temperature:

*     Valley floor….83-88.

*     24 hr trend…..On average down 4 degrees.

* Min humidity:

*     Valley floor….8-11 percent.

*     24 hr trend…..Little change.

* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):

*     Valley floor….West wind up to 10 mph.

*   10000 ft msl….Southwest 15 to 25 mph becoming 20 to 25 mph in

the afternoon.

* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.

* LAL……………..1.

* Haines Index……..4.

 

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS:

.WEDNESDAY…* Sky/Weather………Sunny.  * Max temperature:  *     Valley floor….80-85.  *     7000 feet…….67-72.  *     24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.  * Min humidity:  *     Valley floor….7-10 percent.  *     7000 feet…….5-15 percent.  *     24 hr trend…..Little change.  * Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):  *     Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming south up to        10 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.  *     Upper slopes….West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30        mph.  *     10000 ft msl….Southwest 15 to 25 mph.  * CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.  * LAL……………..1.  * Haines Index……..5.  .WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.  * Min temperature:  *     Valley floor….40-45.  *     7000 feet…….20-25.  *     24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.  * Max humidity:  *     Valley floor….30-35 percent.  *     7000 feet…….48-53 percent.  *     24 hr trend…..Little change.  * Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):  *     Slope/valley….Northwest winds up to 10 mph.  *     Upper slopes….West winds 10 to 15 mph.  *     10000 ft msl….West 10 to 15 mph.  * CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.  * LAL……………..1.  * Haines Index……..5.  .THURSDAY…* Sky/Weather………Sunny.  * Max temperature:  *     Valley floor….76-81.  *     7000 feet…….62-67.  *     24 hr trend…..On average down 5 degrees.  * Min humidity:  *     Valley floor….6-9 percent.  *     7000 feet…….5-11 percent.  *     24 hr trend…..Little change.  * Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):  *     Slope/valley….Northwest winds up to 10 mph in the morning        becoming upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.  *     Upper slopes….Southwest winds up to 10 mph.  *     10000 ft msl….West 10 to 15 mph.  * CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.  * LAL……………..1.  * Haines Index……..5.

 

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):

.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy…becoming mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning.

Max temperature…..77 to 83.

24 HR TREND……Down 5 degrees.

Min humidity……..20 to 30 percent.

24 HR TREND……Up 20 percent.

WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 2 to 5 mph becoming west 6 to 10 mph

with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.

LAL……………..1.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Sky/weather…Mostly clear. Patchy fog after midnight.

Min temperature…..48 to 55.

24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.

Max humidity……..75 to 85 percent.

24 HR TREND……Up 15 percent.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph in

the evening becoming variable 2 to 4 mph.

LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY…Sky/weather………Partly cloudy…becoming mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning.

Max temperature…..75 to 81.

24 HR TREND……Down 3 degrees.

Min humidity……..25 to 35 percent.

24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.

WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 2 to 5 mph becoming west 6 to 10 mph

with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.

LAL……………..1.

 

DEVORE:

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 79. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Thursday

Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 76. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

 

CHINO HILLS:

Wednesday

Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Light west wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday Night

Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Thursday

Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 53. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

 

COLTON:

Wednesday

Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 83. Light southwest wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 55. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Thursday

Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Light south wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

 

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255/CAZ256):

.WEDNESDAY…Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.

Max temperature…..61 to 71 above 6000 feet to 65 to 75 below 6000

feet.

24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.

Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent on desert slopes to 15 to 20

percent on coastal slopes.

24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.

WIND (20 FT)……..

SLOPES………..Winds south 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph

becoming west 6 to 13 mph with gusts to 30 mph

in the afternoon.

RIDGETOP………Winds southwest 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20

mph.

LAL……………..1.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Sky/weather………Mostly clear.

Min temperature…..34 to 44 above 6000 feet to 42 to 51 below 6000

feet.

24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.

Max humidity……..15 to 20 percent on desert slopes to 40 to 50

percent on coastal slopes.

24 HR TREND……Little change.

WIND (20 FT)……..

SLOPES………..Winds west 6 to 13 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

RIDGETOP………Winds west 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 20 mph.

LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY…Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.

Max temperature…..Around 66 above 6000 feet to 66 below 6000

feet.

24 HR TREND……Down 7 degrees.

Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent.

24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.

WIND (20 FT)……..

SLOPES………..Winds west 6 to 10 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the

afternoon.

RIDGETOP………Winds west 6 to 8 mph.

LAL……………..1.

 

BANNING PASS:

.WEDNESDAY…Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.

Max temperature…..87 to 92.

24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.

Min humidity……..10 percent.

24 HR TREND……Little change.

WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 3 to 6 mph becoming southeast 6 to 12

mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.

LAL……………..1.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.

Min temperature…..55 to 65.

24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.

Max humidity……..25 to 35 percent.

24 HR TREND……Up 10 percent.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 13 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.

Max temperature…..86 to 91.

24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.

Min humidity……..10 to 15 percent.

24 HR TREND……Little change.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 10 mph becoming east 6 to 11

mph in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 mph.

LAL……………..1.

 

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ261):

.WEDNESDAY…* Sky/weather……Mostly sunny.  * Max Temperature……………..76-89.  *    24 hr trend………………5 degrees warmer.  * Min Humidity………………..9-14 pct.  *    24 hr trend………………Little RH change.  * Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph.  * Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 15 to 25 mph.  * Chance of Precip…………….0 percent.  * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent.  * LAL………………………..1.  * Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large    plume dominated fire growth.  .WEDNESDAY NIGHT…* Sky/weather…………………Mostly clear.  * Min Temperature……………..51-59.  *    24 hr trend………………Little change.  * Max Humidity………………..25-31 pct.  *    24 hr trend………………7 pct wetter.  * Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph.  * Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 15 to 25 mph.  * Chance of Precip…………….0 percent.  * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent.  * LAL………………………..1.  .THURSDAY…* Sky/weather…………………Mostly sunny.  * Max Temperature……………..74-84.  *    24 hr trend………………4 degrees cooler.  * Min Humidity………………..12-17 pct.  *    24 hr trend………………Little RH change.  * Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph.  * Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 15 to 25 mph.  * Chance of Precip…………….0 percent.  * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent.  * LAL………………………..1.  * Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large    plume dominated fire growth.
NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):

.WEDNESDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.

* Max temperature:

*     Valley floor….89-94.

*     24 hr trend…..On average up 6 degrees.

* Min humidity:

*     Valley floor….7-12 percent.

*     24 hr trend…..On average up 2 percent.

* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):

*     Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming south around

10 mph in the afternoon.

*     10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph becoming 25 to 30 mph in

the afternoon.

* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.

* LAL……………..1.

* Haines Index……..4.

* Mixing height…….6700 ft agl.

* Transport winds…..East around 10 knots shifting to the south in

the afternoon.

* Ventilation………Good to very good.

 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.

* Min temperature:

*     Valley floor….55-60.

*     24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.

* Max humidity:

*     Valley floor….27-32 percent.

*     24 hr trend…..Little change.

* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):

*     Valley floor….South wind up to 10 mph.

*     10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph becoming 20 to 25 mph

after midnight.

* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.

* LAL……………..1.

* Haines Index……..4.

 

.THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.

* Max temperature:

*     Valley floor….87-92.

*     24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.

* Min humidity:

*     Valley floor….6-10 percent.

*     24 hr trend…..Little change.

* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):

*     Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming southwest

around 10 mph in the afternoon.

*     10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph becoming 25 to 30 mph in

the afternoon.

* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.

* LAL……………..1.

* Haines Index……..4.

* Mixing height…….7500 ft agl.

* Transport winds…..Light winds becoming south 10 to 15 knots in

the afternoon.

* Ventilation………Very good to excellent.

 

LAS VEGAS CLARK COUNTY BORDER:

.WEDNESDAY…* Sky/Weather………Sunny.  * Max temperature:  *     4000 feet…….82-87.  *     24 hr trend…..On average up 7 degrees.  * Min humidity:  *     4000 feet…….8-12 percent.  *     24 hr trend…..Little change.  * Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):  *   Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming south 10 to        15 mph in the afternoon.  *     10000 ft msl….Southwest 25 to 30 mph becoming 25 to 35 mph in        the afternoon.  * CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.  * LAL……………..1.  * Haines Index……..4.  * Mixing height…….7300 ft agl.  * Transport winds…..Southwest 10 to 15 knots.  * Ventilation………Very good.  .WEDNESDAY NIGHT…* Sky/Weather………Mostly clear.  * Min temperature:  *     4000 feet…….47-52.  *     24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.  * Max humidity:  *     4000 feet…….28-33 percent.  *     24 hr trend…..Little change.  * Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):  *     Slope/valley….Southwest winds up to 10 mph.  *     10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph.  * CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.  * LAL……………..1.  * Haines Index……..5.  .THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.  * Max temperature:  *     4000 feet…….80-85.  *     24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.  * Min humidity:  *     4000 feet…….8-12 percent.  *     24 hr trend…..Little change.  * Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):  *     Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming southwest up        to 10 mph in the afternoon.  *     10000 ft msl….Southwest 15 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph        in the afternoon.  * CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.  * LAL……………..1.  * Haines Index……..4.  * Mixing height…….7000 ft agl.  * Transport winds…..Light winds becoming southwest around 10    knots in the afternoon.  * Ventilation………Good to very good.

 

*************************** OUT OF COUNTY *************************************

FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ247/CAZ249):.WEDNESDAY…Sky/weather………Mostly sunny except patchy morning low clouds and dense fog.  Max temperature…..75-83.     24 hr trend……Down 7.  Min humidity……..25-45 percent.     24 hr trend……Up 20-30.  20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph                      with local gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.  Marine layer……..800 ft asl.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Sky/weather………Clear then becoming partly cloudy.  Min temperature…..55-59.  Max humidity……..80-100 percent except 60-70 percent in the                      hills.  20-foot winds…….Southwest 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph                      early becoming variable 3-6 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .THURSDAY…Sky/weather………Partly cloudy then becoming sunny.  Max temperature…..72-79.  Min humidity……..20-35 percent.  20-foot winds…….Variable 3-6 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph                      with local gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY:.WEDNESDAY…Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.  Max temperature…..75-82.     24 hr trend……Down 7.  Min humidity……..25-45 percent.     24 hr trend……Up 24.  20-foot winds…….Southeast 5-10 mph becoming south 8-15 mph in                      the afternoon.  Marine layer……..800 ft asl.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Sky/weather………Clear.  Min temperature…..49-59.  Max humidity……..70-100 percent except 50-65 percent in the                      hills.  20-foot winds…….South 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph early                      becoming variable 3-6 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .THURSDAY…Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..73-81.  Min humidity……..15-25 percent.  20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA:.WEDNESDAY…Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.  Max temperature…..72-80 except 69-71 coastal slopes and higher                      peaks.     24 hr trend……Down 8.  Min humidity……..25-40 percent except 50-60 percent coastal                      slopes and higher peaks.     24 hr trend……Up 28.  20-foot winds…….      Valleys/lwr slopes…Variable 3-6 mph becoming southwest 8-15                           mph with local canyon gusts to 30 mph by                           the afternoon.      Ridges/upr slopes….Northwest increasing to 6-12 mph then                           becoming southwest late in the afternoon.  Marine layer……..800 ft asl.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Sky/weather………Mostly clear.  Min temperature…..51-59 except 46-48 colder valleys.  Max humidity……..45-60 percent except 70-80 percent colder                      valleys.  20-foot winds…….      Valleys/lwr slopes…Variable 3-8 mph.      Ridges/upr slopes….Variable 3-8 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.  Max temperature…..69-79.  Min humidity……..20-40 percent except 40-50 percent coastal                      slopes and higher peaks.  20-foot winds…….      Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 6-12 mph with canyon gusts to                           25 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.      Ridges/upr slopes….Variable 3-8 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. SANTA CLARITA VALLEY:WEDNESDAY…Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.  Max temperature…..76-81.     24 hr trend……Down 5.  Min humidity……..18-25 percent.     24 hr trend……Up 15.  20-foot winds…….Variable 3-8 mph becoming southwest 8-15 mph with gusts                      to 25 mph in the mid-afternoon.  Marine layer……..None.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Sky/weather………Clear.  Min temperature…..48-53.  Max humidity……..45-60 percent.  20-foot winds…….West 6-12 with gusts to 20 mph early becoming                      north.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..75-81.  Min humidity……..8-15 percent.  20-foot winds…….North 6-12 mph becoming west in the afternoon.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ253):FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY… WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.  Max temperature…..71-80 low elevations to 61-69 higher                    elevations.     24 hr trend……Down 3.  Min humidity……..15-25 percent.     24 hr trend……Up 8-13.  20-foot winds…….      Valleys/lwr slopes…Variable 3-6 mph becoming southwest 10-20                           mph with gusts to 25 mph by the afternoon.      Ridges/upr slopes….West 6-12 mph.  Marine layer……..None.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.  Min temperature…..46-56 low elevations to 30-37 colder valleys                      and peaks.  Max humidity……..30-50 percent except 80-100 percent colder                      valleys.  20-foot winds…….      Valleys/lwr slopes…Northwest 6-12 mph.      Ridges/upr slopes….Northwest 6-12 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..68-78 low elevations to 57-64 higher                      elevations.  Min humidity……..8-15 percent.  20-foot winds…….      Valleys/lwr slopes…Northwest 6-12 mph.      Ridges/upr slopes….Northwest increasing to 10 to 20 with gusts                           to 25 mph late in the afternoon.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..73-83.     24 hr trend……Little change.  Min humidity……..8-15 percent.     24 hr trend……Up 8.  20-foot winds…….Southwest increasing to 10-20 mph                     with gusts to 30 mph by the afternoon. Isolated                      gusts to 40 mph near Lake Palmdale.  Marine layer……..None.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.  Min temperature…..42-50.  Max humidity……..40-55 percent.  20-foot winds…….West 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..69-79.  Min humidity……..8-15 percent.  20-foot winds…….West 6-12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ298):.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  MAX TEMPERATURE…..76-81.     24 HR TREND……Little change.  MIN HUMIDITY……..13-23 percent.     24 HR TREND……Up 2-8 percent.  20-FOOT WINDS…….West 3-7 mph in the early morning increasing to                      southwest 3-14 mph by afternoon.  LAL……………..1.  VENTILATION………Excellent.  Mixing height…….8700 ft AGL.  TRANSPORT WINDS…..West around 5 mph in the morning increasing to                      southwest around 15 mph in the afternoon.  CHC WETTING RAIN….0 percent.  .WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.  MIN TEMPERATURE…..45-50.     24 HR TREND……Down 3-5 degrees.  MAX HUMIDITY……..45-55 percent.     24 HR TREND……Up 7-17 percent.  20-FOOT WINDS…….West 8-20 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CHC WETTING RAIN….0 percent.  .THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  MAX TEMPERATURE…..71-76.     24 HR TREND……Down 2-8 degrees.  MIN HUMIDITY……..12-22 percent.     24 HR TREND……Little change.  20-FOOT WINDS…….Northwest 10 mph in the early morning shifting                      to the west 3-6 mph by afternoon.  LAL……………..1.  VENTILATION………Very good.  Mixing height…….6900 ft AGL.  TRANSPORT WINDS…..Northwest 5 to 10 mph.  CHC WETTING RAIN….0 percent.

TEHACHAPI:.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..     5000 FEET……..65-70.     24 HR TREND……Down 3-9 degrees.  MIN HUMIDITY……..     5000 FEET……..13-23 percent.     24 HR TREND……Up 7-13 percent.  WIND – 20 FOOT (10 MINUTE AVERAGE)     SLOPES………..Upslope/upvalley 3-9 mph in the early morning                      increasing to 4-16 mph by afternoon.     RIDGES………..West 3-8 mph in the early morning increasing to                      4-16 mph by afternoon.  LAL……………..1.  VENTILATION………Excellent.  Mixing height…….7500 ft AGL.  TRANSPORT WINDS…..West around 5 mph in the morning increasing to                      around 15 mph in the afternoon.  CHC WETTING RAIN….0 percent.  .WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.  Min temperature….     5000 FEET……..40-45.     24 HR TREND……Down 2-8 degrees.  MAX HUMIDITY……..     5000 FEET……..52-62 percent.     24 HR TREND……Up 8-18 percent.  WIND – 20 FOOT (10 MINUTE AVERAGE)     SLOPES………..Upslope/upvalley 5-17 mph.     RIDGES………..Northwest 5-17 mph in the early evening                      becoming west 3-13 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CHC WETTING RAIN….0 percent.  .THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..     5000 FEET……..61-66.     24 HR TREND……Down 3-5 degrees.  MIN HUMIDITY……..     5000 FEET……..12-22 percent.     24 HR TREND……Down 1-3 percent.  WIND – 20 FOOT (10 MINUTE AVERAGE)     SLOPES………..Upslope/upvalley 10 mph in the early morning                      then westerly 4-8 mph by afternoon.     RIDGES………..West 3-9 mph.  LAL……………..1.  VENTILATION………Very good.  Mixing height…….7000 ft AGL.  TRANSPORT WINDS…..Northwest 5 to 10 mph.  CHC WETTING RAIN….0 percent. ORANGE CO. (ANAHEIM):WEDNESDAY…Mostly cloudy in the morning…becoming mostly  sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 75 to 80. Light winds.  .WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Partly cloudy in the evening…becoming mostly  cloudy. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 50 to 57. Light winds.  .THURSDAY…Mostly cloudy in the morning…becoming mostly sunny.  Patchy fog in the morning. Highs around 76. Light winds.  .THURSDAY NIGHT…Partly cloudy. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 50 to  56. Light winds. SAN DIEGO COAST (SAN DIEGO):WEDNESDAY…Mostly cloudy in the morning…becoming partly  cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 68 to 73 near the coast  to 74 inland. Light winds.  .WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Partly cloudy in the evening…becoming  cloudy. Lows 53 to 60. Light winds.  .THURSDAY…Mostly cloudy in the morning…becoming partly  cloudy. Highs 71 to 76. Light winds.  .THURSDAY NIGHT…Partly cloudy. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 52 to  59. Light winds.====================================================================THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY: 2015: Unseasonable high pressure and warm ocean waters led to very warm October days and the warmest October nights on record from 10/10 through 10/15. In San Diego, five out of the six highest October minimum temperatures on record occurred. The highest minimum temperature in any October was 76° on 10/10 and again on 10/13. This is only two degrees off the highest minimum temperature for any time of year! (Only seven nights in history recorded 77 or 78°, all of which occurred during September, meaning these October nights were warmer than any night in July or August in San Diego). On 10/10 the highest minimum temperature in October was also recorded in Chula Vista (73, only three degrees off all-time highest), Oceanside Harbor (74, only two degrees off all-time highest), and El Cajon (tied 69). On 10/13 Santa Ana recorded 78°, the highest October minimum temperature on record. The top six warmest October nights on the Chula Vista record occurred this month, and the top five in El Cajon occurred this month.’

2012: A waterspout was observed about 200 yards off the coast of Carlsbad.

Numerous pilot reports were received of waterspouts off the coast in the vicinity of North Island and Imperial Beach. Other waterspouts were seen off the coast of Orange County. No landfall or damage was reported.

 

1957: Heavy rain hit San Bernardino. Rainfall of 0.50 inch occurred during 10 minutes at Del Rosa Ranger Station (a 40 year occurrence). Total was 1.37” at the site from 10/11 to 10/14. The rains eased the fire threat, but burn areas from fires the previous August led to debris flows into the northern San Bernardino area. Tons of mud and debris were deposited in dozens of homes and yards from Little Mountain to Del Rosa. 1924: An early season cold snap gripped Southern California from this day to 10/13, setting numerous daily minimum temperature records.

=========================================================================TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

  

==============================================================================

CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @0720 hrs TEMP:480 RH:42% WIND: CALM0.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE JUL 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12”  : MONTH:0.00”   YTD S/F: 0.00” /

————————————————————————————–

FIRES: UPDATED

 

National Preparedness Level 2

 

Initial attack activity: Light (103) new fires
New large incidents: 3
Large fires contained: 2
Uncontained large fires:** 17
Area Command teams committed: 0
NIMOs committed: 0
Type 1 IMTs committed: 2
Type 2 IMTs committed: 3

 

 

Active Incident Resource Summary
GACC Fires Cumulative Acres Crews Engines Helicopters Total Personnel
AICC 0 0 0 0 0 0
NWCC 10 536,039 20 32 6 892
ONCC 19 120,797 70 401 37 3,477
OSCC 3 21,110 45 264 16 2,056
NRCC 2 96,344 0 0 0 21
GBCC 1 1,682 0 1 0 3
SWCC 1 1,800 1 12 0 130
RMCC 0 0 0 0 0 0
EACC 1 197 2 6 0 99
SACC 1 29 0 0 0 1
Total 38 777,998 127 632 59 6,450

 

Daily statistics 10/10/179
Number of new large fires 10 States currently reporting large fires:
Number of active large fires Total number includes full suppression and resource managed fires. Total does not include individual fires within complexes. 14 Arizona (1) California (10) Oregon (2) Washington (1)
Acres from active fires 341,373
Fires contained 0
Year-to-date statistics
2017 (1/1/17 – 10/10/17) Fires: 50,699 Acres: 8,502,805
2016 (1/1/16 – 10/10/16) Fires: 47,777 Acres: 4,839,428
2015 (1/1/15 – 10/10/15) Fires: 51,272 Acres: 9,276,770
2014 (1/1/14 – 10/10/14) Fires: 41,790 Acres: 3,070,737
2013 (1/1/13 – 10/10/13) Fires: 39,770 Acres: 4,124,533
2012 (1/1/12 – 10/10/12) Fires: 49,682 Acres: 8,862,671
2011 (1/1/11 – 10/10/11) Fires: 61,993 Acres: 8,292,982
2010 (1/1/10 – 10/10/10) Fires: 59,464 Acres: 3,137,127
2009 (1/1/09 – 10/10/09) Fires: 70,769 Acres: 5,673,357
2008 (1/1/08 – 10/10/08) Fires: 70,982 Acres: 4,451,214
2007 (1/1/07 – 10/10/07) Fires: 74,702 Acres: 8,301,382
Annual average prior 10 years
2006-2016 Fires: 56,823 Acres: 6,004,820

 

 

Southern California Area (PL 3)

New fires: 24
New large incidents: 1
Uncontained large fires: 1

 

Federal Incidents Lion, Vegetation Fire, Tulare County, Update Lion Creek, Golden Trout Wilderness x 11 miles northeast of Camp Nelson Federal DPA, FRA, Sequoia National Forest

  • 12,980 acres grass, brush and timber, 0% contained
  • Moderate fire behavior
  • Structures threatened

Unified Command

Canyon 2, Vegetation Fire, Orange County, Update

91 Freeway x Highway 241 State/Local DPA, SRA/LRA, Orange County/Anaheim City/Orange City

  • 8,000 acres grass and brush, 45% contained
  • Unified command CAL FIRE, Orange County, City of Orange and City of Anaheim
  • Minimal fire behavior
  • Structures threatened
  • Evacuations remain in place
  • Road closures in effect
  • Federal air and ground resources assigned

 

Northern California Area (PL 4)

 

New fires: 33
New large incidents: 0
Uncontained large fires: 12
Type 1 IMTs Committed: 4

 

Date Time News and Notes
10/10/2017 1900 Southern LNU Complex, Vegetation Fires, Napa, Sonoma, & Solano Counties, Update State DPA, SRA Sonoma-Lake-Napa Unit

  • 37,000 acres grass and brush, 6% contained
  • Over 15,000 civilians evacuated and 5,000 residences threatened
  • 178 residential structures destroyed
  • All fires experienced active to extreme fire behavior with spotting
  • Significant fires in the complex include
    • Atlas Fire – 32,000 acres – east of Napa
      • Fire continues to make significant runs to the south into Solano County threatening the communities of Green Valley and Fairfield
      • Significant residential and commercial property loss
      • Additional structures threatened with evacuation orders
    • Partrick – 800 acres – west of Napa, east of Sonoma
      • Fire continues to burn to the north along the Mayacamas ridge northeast of Sonoma
      • Threat continues to the communities of Sonoma and Napa
      • Significant structure loss
    • Nuns – 2,000 acres – Glen Ellen
      • Fire continues to spread to the east along the Mayacamas ridge at the Sonoma/Napa County line east of Glen Ellen
      • Threat to the communities of Glen Ellen and structures in Cavedale Rd area
      • Fire is burning on both sides of Hwy 12
      • Residential and commercial structures have been destroyed
    • Norrbom – 200 acres – east of Boyes Hot Springs
      • Fire behavior is active burning to the north and east toward Mt. Veeder in Napa County
      • This fire within ½ mile from merging with the Nuns Fire
    • Adobe – 2,000 acres – Kenwood
      • The fire continues to burn on both sides of Hwy 12
      • The fire is actively burning toward Sugarloaf Ridge State Park to the east, Bennett Valley and Annadel State Park to the northwest, and Sonoma Mountain to the south, and toward the community of Oakmont to the north
      • Threat remains to the communities of Oakmont, Kenwood, and Bennett Valley, as well as structures in the Sonoma-Bennett Mtn areas
      • Residential and Commercial structures have been destroyed
  • CAL FIRE IMT-3 (Lawson) assigned

 

37, Vegetation Fire, Sonoma County, Update Hwy 37, 11 miles southeast of Petaluma State DPA, SRA, Sonoma-Lake-Napa Unit

  • 1,660 acres grass, 65% contained
  • 4 structures destroyed
  • Crews continue to strengthen control lines
  • Marin County Fire Department in command

 

1900 Mendocino Lake Complex, Vegetation Fires, Mendocino and Lake Counties, Update

State DPA, SRA, Mendocino Unit

  • 28,500 acres oak woodland, brush, and timber, 7% contained
  • 7,000 civilian evacuations and 800 residences threatened
  • 250 residential structures destroyed
  • Significant fires in the complex include
    • Redwood Valley Fire – 26,000 acres, 5% contained – Potter Valley
      • Fire continues to spread to the northeast north of Potter Valley
      • Significant structure loss
      • Mandatory evacuations remain in place
      • Communication systems have been impacted including 911 system
      • Threat to the communities of Potter Valley
    • Sulfur Fire – 2,500 acres, 30% contained – Clear Lake Oaks
      • Numerous structures lost
      • Evacuations in place
  • CAL FIRE IMT-4 (Russell)
10/10/2017 1900 NEU Wind Complex, Vegetation Fires, Nevada and Butte Counties, Update State DPA, SRA, Nevada-Yuba-Placer Unit

  • 16,337 acres timber and brush, 10% contained
  • Fires in the complex include
  • Cascade Fire – 11,685 acres, 20% contained – Collins Lake area
  • Significant structure loss
  • Evacuation orders remain in place
  • Threat to the communities of Loma Rica and Browns Valley
  • LaPorte Fire – 3,700 acres, 15% contained – Bangor, Butte County
  • Significant structure loss
  • Fire has burned into the Cascade Fire
  • McCourtney Fire – 72 acres, 65% contained – southwest of Grass Valley
  • Multiple structures lost
  • Lobo Fire – 880 acres, 30% contained, west of Grass Valley
  • Threat to the community of Rough and Ready, Lake Wildwood
  • CAL FIRE IMT-2 (Patterson) 

Cherokee, Vegetation Fire, Oroville, Butte County, Update Cherokee Rd x Table Mountain, north of Oroville State DPA, SRA, Butte Unit

  • 7,500 acres oak woodland and brush, 45% contained
  • Minimal fire behavior observed
  • 50 structures remain threatened

Honey, Vegetation Fire, Paradise, Butte County, Update Honey Run Rd, southwest of Paradise State DPA, SRA, Butte Unit

  • 90 acres, grass and brush, 40% contained
  • Minimal fire behavior
  • 150 structures remain threatened
10/10/2017 1900 Central LNU Complex, Vegetation Fires, Sonoma & Napa Counties, Update State/Local DPA, SRA/LRA Sonoma-Lake-Napa Unit/City of Santa Rosa

  • 29,800 acres oak woodland and brush, 0% contained
  • Significant fires in the complex include
  • Tubbs Fire – 28,000 acres, 0% contained – Calistoga-Santa Rosa
  • Unified Command CAL FIRE and Santa Rosa Fire Dept
  • Fire continues to burn to the north with wind driven uphill runs
  • Fire jumped across Hwy 128
  • 576 residential and commercial structures destroyed
  • 29,192 structures threatened and 62,061 civilians evacuated
  • 2 hospitals have been evacuated
  • Hwy 101 remains closed
  • Pocket Fire– 1,800 acres – Cloverdale
  • Fire behavior was active throughout the day
  • Threat continues to the communities of Cloverdale and Geyserville
  • CAL FIRE IMT-1 (Gouvea) assigned
10/10/2017 1900 CA-SHF Buck Fire: 10,000 acres, 60% contained.

 

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