SBD FIRE WEATHER AND INFO 10/6/17

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO            

To:     ALL UNITS From: EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
Ph: OFFICE:(760) 559-3032  RADIO:(HAM) KG6ZHW

COUNTY F.D RADIO: #733784 COM-330  

Date: 10/6/17
SKYWARN: NORMAL

NETS ON WED  NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX BRIEFS TABLE  MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.: 25

 

National Preparedness Level 2 

Southern California Area

Preparedness Level: (PL 3) 

Northern California Area

Preparedness Level (PL 3) SYNOP: Elevated Fire Danger, Very Low Humidity and Santa Ana Wind…

***Gusty offshore winds today***

***Very warm and dry through Saturday***

***Strong offshore winds Monday***

Weak surface high pressure over the Great Basin will bring offshore winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph to the mountains and below the canyons and passes of Southern California through this afternoon. High pressure aloft off the California Coast will bring well above normal temperatures to the region through Saturday, with 70s to low 80s across the mountains and mid 80s to upper 90s in the valleys. Minimum humidity will be mainly in the single digits and teens across the region through Saturday. A trough will drop into the Great Basin from the Pacific Northwest bringing significant cooling and an increase in humidity Sunday. This trough will also bring westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph to the mountain ridges and desert passes Sunday. A weak ridge of high pressure will build into California from the Pacific Ocean bringing slight warming to the area early next week. Minimum humidity will drop back into the single digits and teens early next week. Offshore winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph will surface across the mountains and below the canyons and passes of Southern California on Monday. Winds will become light by Tuesday afternoon. A Pacific trough will move into the West Coast bringing a cooling trend and an increase in humidity Wednesday through the end of next week

  NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)

Dry and warm weather can be expected through the  weekend. Some areas of breezy north winds are likely today,  especially along the Colorado River. A low pressure system and  associated cold front will move through the region late Sunday  bringing strong north winds and much cooler temperatures Sunday  night and Monday. Dry conditions will continue through next week.

 

SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING

Potential Wind Gusts (could still change significantly, stay tuned)

 

Ahead of the front: southwest gusts 20-30 MPH in Mohave County

 

Behind the front: northwest gusts 40-50 MPH

 

Preliminary Cold Front ETA (could still change significantly, stay tuned)

2pm-5pm: Bishop, Tonopah, Ely

5pm-8pm: Furnace Creek, NNSS, Caliente

8pm-11pm: Ridgecrest, Pahrump, Las Vegas, Lake Mead, Mesquite

11pm-2am: Ft. Irwin, Lake Mohave, Bullhead City, Colorado City

2am-5am: Twentynine Palms, Yucca Valley, Lake Havasu, Kingman

 

MONDAY

Widespread northerly wind gusts 30-50 MPH, gradually diminishing through the day and evening.

 

TUESDAY MORNING

Localized northerly wind gusts around 25 MPH, mainly down the Colorado River Valley near Laughlin-Bullhead City.

 

SPECIAL NOTES:

Weather Summary

A very dry air mass will warm on Friday and Saturday as weak Santa Ana conditions develop. Onshore flow

Returns Saturday night and Sunday morning with areas of coastal clouds and fog. Another Santa Ana wind

develops Monday morning and continues to Wednesday morning. This will bring stronger winds to the canyons, passes and Inland Empire but not as hot. A return to very warm temperatures for Wednesday. Sea breezes will be very weak on the coast due to offshore flow, except for moderate onshore flow Sunday and Sunday evening.

 

Weather Threats and Impacts:

Very warm temperatures Friday and Saturday. Extremely low humidity and gusty Santa Ana winds across mountains and foothills. Elevated fire weather danger. Stronger Santa Ana wind and low humidity Monday and Tuesday, not as hot but becoming very warm by Wednesday.

  • Fire weather impacts possible

 

Forecast Winds:

  • Offshore flow northeast winds developing Friday morning. Gusts 20-30 mph portions of Inland Empire and in mountain passes and canyons, and foothills. Local gusts to 45 mph. Onshore winds Saturday night through Sunday evening.
  • Offshore flow northeast winds developing Monday morning and continuing through Wednesday morning. Gusts 25-35 mph for Inland Empire, foothills, mountain passes and canyons. Local gusts over 55 mph.

Confidence: High

Forecast Relative Humidity:

  • Extreme low humidity Friday and Saturday. Very low humidity Monday to Wednesday. Good recovery and higher humidity Sunday and Sunday night. Nighttime humidity recovery on the immediate coast each night.

Confidence:  High

 

Timing:

  • Event 1: Friday and Saturday for heat and weak Santa Ana wind
  • Event 2: Monday to Wednesday morning for stronger Santa Ana wind.

 

Confidence: High

Locations ImpactedHighway 91 corridor and pass, I-15 and I-215 Cajon Pass, I-10 San Gorgonio Pass, I-8 pass

 

All areas for heat and low humidity, mountain passes and canyons for wind.

 

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:

The potential for large fire will be elevated across most of the region through Saturday due to very warm and dry conditions. The best chance of large fire activity will be across Southern California where gusty offshore winds will surface. The strongest winds will occur over Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Rapid rates of spread and long range spotting will be likely if a new ignition were to occur in a windy location. The large fire threat will lower significantly across most of the region Sunday as temperatures cool and humidity increases. The best threat for a large fire on Sunday will be across the desert slopes where strong westerly winds will combine with humidity in the teens. The large fire threat will become elevated across much of Southern California early next week as strong offshore winds combine with single digit humidity. “High Risk” days may be needed across parts of Southern California on Monday, since this offshore wind event looks fairly strong and widespread. Cool and humid conditions will cause the risk of large fire to become low across the entire region starting Wednesday. Expect moderate initial attack activity across the region through Tuesday and then light IA activity Wednesday through the end of next week.

 

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING

 

ZONE 1: L.A. – VENTURA; NO RATE OCT. 6 MARGINAL / OCT. 9 MODERATE

OCT 10MARGINAL

 

ZONE 2: ORANGE-INLAND EMPIRE: NO RATE OCT 9 MARGINAL

 

ZONE 3: SAN DIEGO: NO RATE

 

ZONE 4: SANTA BARBARA: NO RATE

 

————————————————————————————–APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):

.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.

Max temperature…..81 to 86.

24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.

Min humidity……..5 percent.

24 HR TREND……Little change.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northeast 6 to 13 mph with gusts to 25

mph.

LAL……………..1.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.

Min temperature…..46 to 56.

24 HR TREND……Up 8 degrees.

Max humidity……..20 to 25 percent.

24 HR TREND……Down 5 percent.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northeast 6 to 9 mph with gusts to 20 mph

becoming northwest after midnight.

LAL……………..1.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.

Max temperature…..86 to 91.

24 HR TREND……Up 6 degrees.

Min humidity……..5 percent.

24 HR TREND……Little change.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 6 to 8 mph.

LAL……………..1.

 WRIGHTWOOD:

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 68. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday Night

Clear, with a low around 51. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 76. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 55. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph

 PHELAN:

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 80. West wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Friday Night

Clear, with a low around 53. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 85. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 56. North wind 5 to 15 mph becoming west in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

 TRONA:

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 93. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday Night

Clear, with a low around 59. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 6 mph after midnight.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 96. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Clear, with a low around 60. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable in the evening

 

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):

.FRIDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.

* Max temperature:

*     Valley floor….87-92.

*     24 hr trend…..Little change.

* Min humidity:

*     Valley floor….6-9 percent.

*     24 hr trend…..Little change.

* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):

 *     Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph.

 *     10000 ft msl….Northwest 15 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph

in the afternoon.

* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.

* LAL……………..1.

* Haines Index……..5.

 

.FRIDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Clear.

* Min temperature:

*     Valley floor….52-57.

*     24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.

* Max humidity:

*     Valley floor….19-24 percent.

*     24 hr trend…..Little change.

* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):

*     Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph.

*     10000 ft msl….North 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph

after midnight.

* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.

* LAL……………..1.

* Haines Index……..5.

 

.SATURDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.

* Max temperature:

*     Valley floor….91-96.

*     24 hr trend…..On average up 4 degrees.

* Min humidity:

*     Valley floor….6-8 percent.

*     24 hr trend…..Little change.

* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):

*     Valley floor….North wind up to 10 mph in the morning becoming

upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.

*     10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 15 mph.

* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.

* LAL……………..1.

* Haines Index……..5.

 

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS:

.FRIDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.  * Max temperature:  *     Valley floor….82-87.  *     7000 feet…….69-74.  *     24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.  * Min humidity:  *     Valley floor….8-10 percent.  *     7000 feet…….9-15 percent.  *     24 hr trend…..Little change.  * Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):  *     Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph.  *     Upper slopes….North winds around 10 mph shifting to the        northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.  *     10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 15 mph.  * CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.  * LAL……………..1.  * Haines Index……..5.  .FRIDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Clear.  * Min temperature:  *     Valley floor….48-53.  *     7000 feet…….28-33.  *     24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.  * Max humidity:  *     Valley floor….24-29 percent.  *     7000 feet…….38-43 percent.  *     24 hr trend…..Little change.  * Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):  *     Slope/valley….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph becoming        northwest up to 10 mph after midnight.  *     Upper slopes….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph becoming west        around 10 mph after midnight.  *     10000 ft msl….Northwest around 10 mph in the evening becoming        light and variable.  * CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.  * LAL……………..1.  * Haines Index……..5.  .SATURDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.  * Max temperature:  *     Valley floor….86-91.  *     7000 feet…….74-79.  *     24 hr trend…..On average up 5 degrees.  * Min humidity:  *     Valley floor….6-9 percent.  *     7000 feet…….8-14 percent.  *     24 hr trend…..Little change.  * Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):  *     Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming southeast up        to 10 mph in the afternoon.  *     Upper slopes….West winds around 10 mph shifting to the south up        to 10 mph in the afternoon.  *     10000 ft msl….Light and variable becoming southwest up to 10        mph in the afternoon.  * CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.  * LAL……………..1.  * Haines Index……..5.

 

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.

Max temperature…..92 to 99.

24 HR TREND……Up 9 degrees.

Min humidity……..5 percent.

24 HR TREND……Little change.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 13 to 23 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

LAL……………..1.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.

Min temperature…..58 to 68.

24 HR TREND……Up 7 degrees.

Max humidity……..15 to 20 percent.

24 HR TREND……Down 35 percent.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 16 mph becoming north 6 to 15

                     mph after midnight. Gusts to 30 mph.

LAL……………..1.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.

Max temperature…..94 to 101.

24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.

Min humidity……..5 percent.

24 HR TREND……Little change.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 6 to 16 mph becoming west 6 to 14

                     mph in the afternoon. Gusts to 30 mph.

LAL……………..1.

 

DEVORE:

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 93. Windy, with a north wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.

Friday Night

Clear, with a low around 69. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 97. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 30 mph becoming north 5 to 10 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 63. West wind 15 to 20 mph becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

 

CHINO HILLS:

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 97. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable.

Friday Night

Clear, with a low around 65. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east after midnight.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 97. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light south in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

 

COLTON:

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 98. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

Friday Night

Clear, with a low around 67. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the evening.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 100. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 62. West wind 15 to 20 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

 

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255/CAZ256):

FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.

Max temperature…..Around 66 above 6000 feet to 74 to 83 below

6000 feet.

24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.

Min humidity……..5 to 10 percent.

24 HR TREND……Little change.

WIND (20 FT)……..

   SLOPES………..Winds northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35

                     mph.

   RIDGETOP………Winds north 6 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

LAL……………..1.

.FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.

Min temperature…..31 to 41 above 6000 feet to 45 to 55 below 6000

feet.

24 HR TREND……Up 4 degrees.

Max humidity……..15 to 20 percent.

24 HR TREND……Little change.

WIND (20 FT)……..

   SLOPES………..Winds northeast 6 to 16 mph with gusts to 30

                    mph.

   RIDGETOP………Winds north 8 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

LAL……………..1.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.

Max temperature…..70 to 80 above 6000 feet to 79 to 86 below 6000

feet.

24 HR TREND……Up 6 degrees.

Min humidity……..5 to 10 percent.

24 HR TREND……Little change.

WIND (20 FT)……..

   SLOPES………..Winds north 6 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

   RIDGETOP………Winds north 6 to 14 mph. Gusts to 30 mph in the

                     morning.

LAL……………..1.

 

BANNING PASS:

.FRIDAY…

Sky/weather………Sunny.

Max temperature…..96 to 101.

24 HR TREND……Up 5 degrees.

Min humidity……..5 percent.

24 HR TREND……Little change.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 13 to 23 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

LAL……………..1.

.FRIDAY NIGHT…

Sky/weather………Clear.

Min temperature…..54 to 64.

24 HR TREND……Up 7 degrees.

Max humidity……..10 to 15 percent.

24 HR TREND……Little change.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds north 7 to 17 mph becoming west after

                     midnight. Gusts to 30 mph.

LAL……………..1.

.SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.

Max temperature…..96 to 101.

24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.

Min humidity……..5 percent.

24 HR TREND……Little change.

WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 8 to 18 mph with gusts to 35 mph

                     becoming southeast 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 20

                    mph in the afternoon.

LAL……………..1.

 

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ261):

.FRIDAY…  * Sky/weather…………………Sunny.  * Max Temperature……………..76-87.  *    24 hr trend………………3 degrees cooler.  * Min Humidity………………..8-13 pct.  *    24 hr trend………………Little RH change.  * Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 10 to 20 mph.  * Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northwest 10 to 20 mph.  * Chance of Precip…………….0 percent.  * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent.  * LAL………………………..1.  * Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large    plume dominated fire growth.  .FRIDAY NIGHT…  * Sky/weather…………………Clear.  * Min Temperature……………..56-64.  *    24 hr trend………………Little change.  * Max Humidity………………..18-23 pct.  *    24 hr trend………………Little RH change.  * Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph.  * Winds…10000 FT MSL…………North 15 to 25 mph.  * Chance of Precip…………….0 percent.  * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent.  * LAL………………………..1.  .SATURDAY…  * Sky/weather…………………Sunny.  * Max Temperature……………..84-94.  *    24 hr trend………………8 degrees warmer.  * Min Humidity………………..7-12 pct.  *    24 hr trend………………Little RH change.  * Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph.  * Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northwest 10 to 15 mph.  * Chance of Precip…………….0 percent.  * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent.  * LAL………………………..1.  * Haines High Level Index………5 or moderate potential for large    plume dominated fire growth.

 

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):

 

.FRIDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.

* Max temperature:

*     Valley floor….90-95.

*     24 hr trend…..Little change.

* Min humidity:

*     Valley floor….6-9 percent.

*     24 hr trend…..Little change.

* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):

 *     Valley floor….North wind around 10 mph increasing to 15 to

       20 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph.

 *     10000 ft msl….Northwest 20 to 30 mph increasing to 25 to 35 mph

      in the afternoon.

* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.

* LAL……………..1.

* Haines Index……..5.

* Mixing height…….6900 ft agl.

* Transport winds…..North 10 to 15 knots increasing to around 25

knots in the afternoon.

* Ventilation………Excellent.

 

.FRIDAY NIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Clear.

* Min temperature:

*     Valley floor….58-63.

*     24 hr trend…..Little change.

* Max humidity:

*     Valley floor….20-25 percent.

*     24 hr trend…..Little change.

* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):

 *     Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph.

 *     10000 ft msl….North 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph

       after midnight.

* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.

* LAL……………..1.

* Haines Index……..5.

 

.SATURDAY…

* Sky/Weather………Sunny.

* Max temperature:

*     Valley floor….93-98.

*     24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.

* Min humidity:

*     Valley floor….4-8 percent.

*     24 hr trend…..Little change.

* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):

 *     Valley floor….North wind 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25

       mph.

*     10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 15 mph.

* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.

* LAL……………..1.

* Haines Index……..5.

* Mixing height…….7100 ft agl.

* Transport winds…..North around 10 knots.

* Ventilation………Good.

 

LAS VEGAS CLARK COUNTY BORDER:

FRIDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.  * Max temperature:  *     4000 feet…….82-87.  *     24 hr trend…..Little change.  * Min humidity:  *     4000 feet…….8-11 percent.  *     24 hr trend…..Little change.  * Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):  *     Slope/valley….North winds 10 to 15 mph.  *     10000 ft msl….Northwest 25 to 35 mph.  * CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.  * LAL……………..1.  * Haines Index……..5.  * Mixing height…….6300 ft agl.  * Transport winds…..North around 10 knots.  * Ventilation………Good.  .FRIDAY NIGHT…  * Sky/Weather………Clear.  * Min temperature:  *     4000 feet…….49-54.  *     24 hr trend…..Little change.  * Max humidity:  *     4000 feet…….25-30 percent.  *     24 hr trend…..Little change.  * Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):  *     Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph.  *     10000 ft msl….North 15 to 25 mph becoming 15 to 20 mph after        midnight.  * CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.  * LAL……………..1.  * Haines Index……..5.  .SATURDAY… * Sky/Weather………Sunny.  * Max temperature:  *     4000 feet…….85-90.  *     24 hr trend…..On average up 3 degrees.  * Min humidity:  *     4000 feet…….7-10 percent.  *     24 hr trend…..Little change.  * Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):  *     Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming        upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.  *     10000 ft msl….Northwest 10 to 15 mph.  * CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent.  * LAL……………..1.  * Haines Index……..5.  * Mixing height…….5500 ft agl.  * Transport winds…..Light winds.  * Ventilation………Marginal.

 

*************************** OUT OF COUNTY *************************************

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY… …ElEVATED FIRE DANGER WITH WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY… …POTENTIAL OFFSHORE EVENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY… LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ247/CAZ249):.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..95-99.     24 hr trend……Up 10.  Min humidity……..6-12 percent.     24 hr trend……Down 18.  20-foot winds…….Hills and canyons…Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.   Otherwise…Northeast 5-10 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph in the afternoon.  Marine layer……..None.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.  Min temperature…..58-62.  Max humidity……..25-45 percent.  20-foot winds…….Hills and canyons…Northeast 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.                      Otherwise…Northeast 5-10 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..96-101.  Min humidity……..6-12 percent.  20-foot winds…….Hills and canyons…Northeast 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph                      in the morning.                      Otherwise…Northeast 5-10 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph                      in the afternoon.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY:FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..94-100.     24 hr trend……Up 9.  Min humidity……..5-10 percent.     24 hr trend……Down 10.  20-foot winds…….West Valley…North to northeast increasing to 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.    Otherwise…north 6-12 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.  Marine layer……..None.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.  Min temperature…..54-64.  Max humidity……..20-35 percent.  20-foot winds…….West Valley…North to northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.                      Otherwise…Variable 3-6 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..96-101.  Min humidity……..5-10 percent.  20-foot winds…….West Valley…North to northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph through early morning.  Otherwise…Variable 3-6 mph becoming south 6-12 mph in the afternoon.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA:.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..91-99 except 85-90 higher peaks.     24 hr trend……Up 10.  Min humidity……..6-15 percent.     24 hr trend……Down 14.  20-foot winds…….      Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast increasing to 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming northwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph late.      Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph becoming northwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph late. Strongest western portion.  Marine layer……..None.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .FRIDAY NIGHT…Sky/weather………Clear.  Min temperature…..55-65.  Max humidity……..15-35 percent except 35-45 percent colder valleys.  20-foot winds…….      Valleys/lwr slopes…North to northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast to northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .SATURDAY…  Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..91-101 except 85-90 higher peaks.  Min humidity……..6-15 percent.  20-foot winds…….      Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming                           becoming west by mid-afternoon.    Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming                           northwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph by mid-afternoon.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. SANTA CLARITA VALLEY:.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..91-96.     24 hr trend……Up 7.  Min humidity……..5-10 percent.     24 hr trend……Little change. 20-foot winds…….Northeast increasing to 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph.  Marine layer……..None.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.  Min temperature…..58-62.  Max humidity……..18-25 percent.  20-foot winds…….Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..98-102.  Min humidity……..5-10 percent. 20-foot winds…….North 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming southwest 6-12 mph by mid afternoon.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ253):…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY…  FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..83-93 low elevations to 72-79 higher elevations.     24 hr trend……Up 6.  Min humidity……..5-10 percent.     24 hr trend……Little change.  20-foot winds…….      Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.      Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.  Marine layer……..None.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.  Min temperature…..56-66 low elevations to 44-51 colder valleys                      and peaks.  Max humidity……..10-20 percent except 30-40 percent colder valleys.  20-foot winds…….      Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.      Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..87-97 low elevations to 75-82 higher elevations.  Min humidity……..5-10 percent.  20-foot winds…….      Valleys/lwr slopes…Northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming northwest 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph late.      Ridges/upr slopes….Northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming northwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph late.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..81-87.     24 hr trend……Up 4.  Min humidity……..5-9 percent.     24 hr trend……Little change.  20-foot winds…….Northeast 5-10 mph becoming 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph by the afternoon.  Marine layer……..None.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Clear.  Min temperature…..44-53 except 56-61 in the hills.  Max humidity……..20-40 percent.  20-foot winds…….Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph early becoming 5-10 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.  .SATURDAY…  Sky/weather………Sunny.  Max temperature…..86-91.  Min humidity……..5-9 percent.  20-foot winds…….Northeast 5-10 mph becoming northwest 6-12 mph late.  LAL……………..1.  CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ298):.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  MAX TEMPERATURE…..81-86.     24 HR TREND……Up 4-8 degrees.  MIN HUMIDITY……..6-16 percent.     24 HR TREND……Down 1-3 percent.  20-FOOT WINDS…….Northeast 7-13 mph.  LAL……………..1.  VENTILATION………Excellent.  Mixing height…….15200 ft AGL.  TRANSPORT WINDS…..Northeast 10 to 15 mph.  CHC WETTING RAIN….0 percent.  .FRIDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly clear.  MIN TEMPERATURE…..49-54.     24 HR TREND……Up 2-4 degrees.  MAX HUMIDITY……..29-39 percent.     24 HR TREND……Down 4-8 percent.  20-FOOT WINDS…….North to northeast 6-11 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CHC WETTING RAIN….0 percent.  .SATURDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.  MAX TEMPERATURE…..85-90.     24 HR TREND……Up 3-5 degrees.  MIN HUMIDITY……..7-15 percent.     24 HR TREND……Little change.  20-FOOT WINDS…….North 3-6 mph in the morning shifting to                      the southwest by afternoon.  LAL……………..1.  VENTILATION………Excellent.  Mixing height…….16200 ft AGL.  TRANSPORT WINDS…..North around 5 mph in the morning shifting to                      the southwest in the afternoon.  CHC WETTING RAIN….0 percent. TEHACHAPI:LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY DURING FRIDAY AND  SATURDAY…  .FRIDAY…Sky/weather….Sunny. Areas of smoke in the morning, mainly                     around Lake Isabella.  Max temperature…..     5000 FEET……..73-78.     24 HR TREND……Up 5-10 degrees.  MIN HUMIDITY……..     5000 FEET……..9-18 percent.     24 HR TREND……Down 3-5 percent.  WIND – 20 FOOT (10 MINUTE AVERAGE)     SLOPES………..Easterly 6-12 mph.     RIDGES………..East 8-14 mph.  LAL……………..1.  VENTILATION………Excellent.  Mixing height…….15200 ft AGL.  TRANSPORT WINDS…..Northeast around 10 mph.  CHC WETTING RAIN….0 percent.  .FRIDAY NIGHT…Sky/weather…Clear then becoming partly cloudy. Areas of                      smoke after midnight, especially near Lake Isabella.  Min temperature….    5000 FEET……..49-54.     24 HR TREND……Up 3-5 degrees.  MAX HUMIDITY……..     5000 FEET……..37-47 percent.     24 HR TREND……Little change.  WIND – 20 FOOT (10 MINUTE AVERAGE)     SLOPES………..Easterly 5-10 mph.     RIDGES………..Northeast 7-12 mph. Local gusts around 20 mph.  LAL……………..1.  CHC WETTING RAIN….0 percent.  .SATURDAY…  Sky/weather………Sunny. Areas of smoke in the morning near Lake                      Isabella.  Max temperature…..     5000 FEET……..78-83.     24 HR TREND……Up 3-5 degrees.  MIN HUMIDITY……..     5000 FEET……..8-17 percent.     24 HR TREND……Little change.  WIND – 20 FOOT (10 MINUTE AVERAGE)     SLOPES………..Downslope 3-7 mph in the morning becoming                      upslope/upvalley by afternoon.     RIDGES………..East 4-7 mph in the morning shifting to                      the west by afternoon.  LAL……………..1.  VENTILATION………Good.  Mixing height…….6600 ft AGL.  TRANSPORT WINDS…..North around 5 mph in the morning shifting to                      the west in the afternoon.  CHC WETTING RAIN….0 percent ORANGE CO. (ANAHEIM):.FRIDAY…Sunny, warmer. Highs 87 to 92 towards the coast to  94 to 99 farther inland. Areas of winds west 15 to 25 mph. Gusts  to 30 mph.  .FRIDAY NIGHT…Clear. Lows 60 to 67. Areas of winds west 15 to  20 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming northeast 20 to 30 mph  overnight.  .SATURDAY…Mostly sunny. Highs 90 to 95 towards the coast to  96 farther inland. Areas of winds west 15 to 25 mph. Gusts to  35 mph in the morning.  .SATURDAY NIGHT…Mostly clear. Lows 56 to 62. Light winds. SAN DIEGO COAST (SAN DIEGO):BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH  SUNDAY EVENING…  .FRIDAY…Sunny, warmer. Highs 76 to 81 near the coast to 87 to  92 inland. Light winds becoming west 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph  in the afternoon.  .FRIDAY NIGHT…Clear. Lows 59 to 65. Light winds.  .SATURDAY…Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 84 near the coast to 90 to  95 inland. Light winds becoming west 15 mph in the afternoon.  .SATURDAY NIGHT…Mostly clear. Lows 57 to 63. Light winds.====================================================================THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:

 

1977: Hurricane Heather recurved with the remnants tracking across northern Baja California into Arizona. There was rainfall up to two inches in the southern mountains and deserts on this day and on 10/7. This occurred during the El Niño of 1977-78.

 

1972: Hurricane Joanne made landfall in northern Baja California, maintaining tropical storm strength into Arizona and generating rainfall up to two inches in the southeast California deserts. This occurred during the strong El Niño of 1972-73.

 

1971: Santa Ana conditions produced a high of 101° at San Diego. It was 103° in La Mesa, 101° in National City, but only 84° at Imperial Beach! A fire of 1,000 acres burned southeast of Poway. Oceanside topped out a 98°, the highest temperature on record for the month of October.

 

1959: An early season storm brought wind driven waves to coastal areas. At Capistrano Beach coastal flooding during high tide caused damage to multiple homes and a trailer park.=========================================================================TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

 

==============================================================================

CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @0720hrs TEMP:490 RH:35% WIND: W 3 G 70.00” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE JUL 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12”  : MONTH:0.00”   YTD S/F: 0.00” /

————————————————————————————–

FIRES: UPDATED

 

National Preparedness Level 2

 

Initial attack activity: Light (55) new fires
New large incidents: 0
Large fires contained: 0
Uncontained large fires:** 4
Area Command teams committed: 0
NIMOs committed: 0
Type 1 IMTs committed: 1
Type 2 IMTs committed: 5

 

 

Active Incident Resource Summary
GACC Fires Cumulative Acres Crews Engines Helicopters Total Personnel
AICC 0 0 0 0 0 0
NWCC 13 606,400 14 27 4 863
ONCC 6 180,361 11 34 4 661
OSCC 3 11,206 14 12 3 416
NRCC 7 245,821 1 3 0 65
GBCC 3 13,097 8 8 2 225
SWCC 0 0 0 0 0 0
RMCC 1 2,940 0 0 0 3
EACC 0 0 0 0 0 0
SACC 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 33 1,059,825 48 84 13 2,233

 

 

SOUTH OPS INFO:

Federal Incidents Lion, Vegetation Fire, Tulare County, Update Lion Creek, Golden Trout Wilderness x 11 miles northeast of Camp Nelson Federal DPA, FRA, Sequoia National Forest

  • 8,100 acres grass, brush and timber, 0% contained
  • Moderate fire behavior
  • Structures threatened
  • Crews continue to use backing fire to moderate any potential for extreme fire behavior

Creek, Vegetation Fire, Tuolumne County, Update 6 Miles South East of Cold Springs Federal DPA, FRA, Stanislaus NF

  • 1,492 acres brush and timber, 75% contained
  • Minimal fire behavior

Summit Complex, Vegetation Fire, Tuolumne County, Update South of Douglas Day Use area, off of Highway 108, near Sonora Pass Federal DPA, FRA, Stanislaus NF

  • 5,157 acres timber, 60% contained
  • Minimal fire behavior
  • Road and trail closures in effect
  • Incident will only report one 209 every Thursday by 1800
  • Large uncontained fires within the complex
    • Douglas: 311 acres, 10% contained, confine strategy
    • Willow: 100  acres, 5% contained, confine strategy
    • McCormick: 4,426 acres, 35% contained, confine strategy
    • Bummers: 120 acres, 0 % contained

Empire, Vegetation Fire, Mariposa County, Final 1 mile South of Bridalveil Creek Campground Federal DPA, FRA, Yosemite NP

  • 6,370 acres, timber, brush and slash, 85% contained
  • Minimal fire behavior
  • Local trails closed
  • Area closure in effect for Bridalveil Creek Campground
  • Managing for both protection and resource objectives
  • Last update unless significant activity occurs

Azalea, Vegetation Fire, Riverside County, Final Highway 243 x Black Mountain Rd, 3 miles north of Idyllwild Federal DPA, FRA, San Bernardino National Forest

  • 9 acres grass and brush, 90% contained
  • Burning in timber understory
  • Reduction in acreage due to more accurate mapping

 

NORTH OPS INFO:

Date Time News and Notes
10/05/2017 1815 CA-SHF Buck Fire: 8,065 acres, 89% contained. Internal isolated pockets of fuel continue to burn. The fire is expected to hold at its current size.
10/05/2017 1255 National Weather Service – Sacramento has issued a Fire Weather Watch in effect from October 8, 1100 to October 10, 0500 for strong gusty winds and low humidity. Effected areas include the Northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding foothills. Fire Weather Zones 213, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 263, 264, 266, and 279. Link

National Weather Service – San Francisco has issued a Fire Weather Watch for strong offshore winds and low humidity effective October 8, 1100 to October 10, 0500. Affected areas include the North Bay Mountains and surrounding areas. Fire Weather Zone 507. Link

 

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