WEATHER 1/16/20

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO
ALL UNITS From:

EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
Ph: OFFICE:(760) 559-3032
AFTER 2200 HRS CALL: (760)-244-9790
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COUNTY F.D RADIO: #733784 CALL SIGN: COM-330

Date: 1/16/20

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.: 20

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

Southern California Area Preparedness Level: (PL 1 )

Northern California Area Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

GREEN = PL: 1 BLUE – PL:2 YELLOW = PL:3 ORANGE = PL:4 RED = PL: 5
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SYNOP: (NWS SAN DIEGO)
Later today and tonight, a fast-moving low pressure system will bring stronger and gusty southwest to west winds to the mountains and deserts and chances for wetting precipitation from the coast to the mountains with greatest chances in the mountains. High pressure near the West Coast will bring drying on Friday and dry weather with a warming trend over the weekend. A trough of low pressure moving inland along the West Coast early next week will bring cooling, gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts, and a slight chance for precipitation for Monday night and Tuesday.

ꞏ Showers will move into Southern California this evening.

ꞏ Showers will end across most of the region late tonight, but they will not end across San Diego County until Friday morning.

ꞏ Across Central California, most foothill and mountain locations will receive between 1 and 2 inches of rainfall and most coastal and valley locations will receive between a half inch and an inch of rainfall. However, there will be less than a half inch of rainfall across the San Joaquin Valley.

ꞏ Across Southern California from Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties northward, most foothill and mountain locations will receive between a half inch and an inch of rainfall and most coastal and valley locations will receive between a quarter inch and a half inch of rainfall.

ꞏ South of Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties, most locations will receive less than a quarter inch of rainfall.

ꞏ The snow level will be around 4,000 feet across Central California and around 5,000 feet across Southern California.

ꞏ South to west winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph will surface across the wind prone mountain and desert areas through tonight.

ꞏ Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal today, with mid 30s to mid 40s across the mountains and 50s to low 60s in the valleys.

ꞏ A slow warming trend will occur Friday through this weekend, with near normal temperatures by Sunday.

ꞏ Winds will be light across the region Friday through this weekend.

ꞏ Temperatures will cool a little each day Monday through the middle of next week.

ꞏ Showers with light rainfall totals will move across Central California starting Monday afternoon and across Southern California starting Tuesday morning.

ꞏ Showers will end across the region Tuesday night.

ꞏ South to west winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph will surface across the wind prone mountain and desert areas

Key Points

• A storm system will result in light to moderate rain and snow above 5,000 feet is expected Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning.

• Expect gusty winds over the mountains and high deserts with gusts of 35 to 55 mph possible.
________________________________________
CHANGES SINCE LAST BRIEFING
• A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the San Bernardino County mountains 6 PM Thursday until 4 AM Friday.

• A Wind Advisory has been issued for all areas of the mountains and High Deserts from 1 PM Thursday until 4 AM Friday.

• Rain and snow totals as well as max wind speeds have trended downward.

• Timing of the system has trended slightly later, with the bulk of the system moving through Thursday night into early Friday morning.
CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS
Mountain Snow
Moderate Confidence Accumulating snowfall may cause hazardous travel conditions and reduced visibility.
• What: Light to moderate snowfall.
o San Bernardino County: 2-6 inches, with totals of 6 to 8 inches over the highest peaks.
o Riverside County: Trace to 2 inches.
o San Diego County: Trace.
• Where: Mountains above 5,000 feet.
• When: Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning.

Rain
Moderate Confidence Rainfall may cause hazardous travel conditions.
• What: Light to moderate rain possible at elevations below 5,000 feet.
o Coast: 0.05-0.20”
o Inland Valleys: 0.10-0.30”
o High Deserts: Trace-0.05”
o Low Deserts: Trace
• Where: Coasts/Valleys of San Diego and Orange Counties, Inland Empire, High Desert.
• When: Thursday afternoon to early Friday morning, with the bulk of the rain coming Thursday night from north to south.

Gusty Winds
Moderate Confidence Gusty winds may create hazardous travel for high profile vehicles and damage to unsecured outdoor objects. Gusty winds also expected in the coastal waters which could be hazardous to small craft.
• What: Southwest winds 30-40 mph with isolated gusts to 55 mph. Winds in the coastal waters 20-25 knots.
• Where: Mountains and High Deserts
• When: Thursday into early Friday morning, with the strongest winds Thursday night.

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
A fast moving weather system will affect the region this afternoon and tonight. Snow will largely be intercepted by the Sierra, but gusty winds and brief showers will spread across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona tonight leaving light snowfall in the mountains. Dry conditions return for the weekend and early next week though considerable high clouds will limit sunshine at times.

CHANGES SINCE PREVIOUS BRIEFING
Lincoln County added to Wind Advisory 10 AM until 9 PM PST this evening.
2-3″ of new snow likely in Kyle and Lee Canyons in the Spring Mountains, but slight chance of up to 4-6″.

CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS
Southern NV, Northwest AZ and Southeast CA
HIGH Confidence
Hazardous travel conditions in the eastern Sierra this a􀅌ernoon and tonight due to slick, snow
covered roads.
Hazardous crosswinds this afternoon and evening, especially for high profile vehicles.

MODERATE Confidence Localized slick roads tonight in mountains of southern NV and far northwest Arizona due to light snowfall on roads. Road closures or chain restrictions late tonight in the Spring Mountains due to snowfall.

Details:
This Afternoon and Tonight
SNOW/RAIN
Eastern Sierra snow is expected to begin this afternoon and end a􀅌er midnight tonight; 5-10″ above 6,000 feet.

Snow levels will lower to around 4000 feet this evening, but snow poten_al tapers off for Owens Valley…an inch or less expected.

Spring Mountains will likely receive 2-3″ of new snow in Kyle and Lee Canyons between 10 PM this evening and 4 AM PST

Friday, slight possibility of up to 4-6″.
Elsewhere, brief scattered to numerous showers; most concentrated over south central Nevada and becoming more sparse over far southern Nevada and nearby San Bernardino and Mohave counties followed by clearing Friday morning.

WIND
A belt of south winds gusting 40-50+ mph affecting Inyo, Esmeralda, central/southern Nye, Lincoln counties this afternoon/evening.
Lesser wind gusts (25-40 mph) expected across southern Nevada and areas south of I-15 this afternoon/overnight.

SPECIAL NOTES:
BI-MONTHLY FUELS DISCUSSION
For Southern and Central California
Updated: Monday, January 13th, 2020
General Discussion:
The wet weather which began a few days prior to Thanksgiving continued through the first half of December.
Frequent storm systems pushed through the state bringing widespread wetting rains and high elevation snow.
The heaviest rain was focused on the central coast and across inland areas of Southern CA due to a pair of
storms which lingered off the coast. Curiously, the Sierras missed on the heaviest precipitation and snowpack
remains a bit below average according to the snow survey at the beginning of January.

Fuel moisture remains high enough to keep probabilities of ignition seasonally low and a new grass crop should allow lower elevations to remain in a low large fire potential status the next few weeks. But some areas with a high amount of dead fuel loading or a dense covering of ground litter may see some fire potential during peak heating hours, or during windy periods. These zones are generally from the 3,000 – 5,500 foot level. Upper elevations should see snowpack linger for a few more weeks.

Long range models were fairly accurate a few months ago in forecasting above normal precipitation to follow a
dry October and November last year. These same models have been consistently predicting below normal
precipitation the next few weeks. Although the weather in the short term does not appear especially warm or
windy, we may see spring grassfire season begin a few weeks early this year.

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
There will be little or no fire activity across the region through the forecast period.

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING

————————————————————————————–
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
Sky/weather………Partly cloudy.
Max temperature…..Around 65. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..15 to 25 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds south 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to 25 mph…becoming 40 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.TONIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight.
Min temperature…..32 to 38. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Max humidity……..80 to 90 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 30 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds south 11 to 21 mph becoming west 7 to 17 mph after midnight. Gusts to 40 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……26 percent. LAL……………..1.

.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy…becoming mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..51 to 57. 24 HR TREND……Down 6 degrees.
Min humidity……..25 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming northeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*WRIGHTWOOD:
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from January 16, 06:00 PM PST until January 17, 04:00 AM PST
Wind Advisory in effect from January 16, 01:00 PM PST until January 17, 04:00 AM PST
Thursday
A slight chance of snow showers after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday Night
Snow. Low around 29. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. West wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.

*BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM PST FRIDAY
Thursday
A chance of snow showers between 10am and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 44. Wind chill values as low as 20. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow. Low around 26. Wind chill values as low as 10. Windy, with a west southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. West southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.

*PHELAN:
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 50. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.
Thursday Night
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Breezy, with a south wind 20 to 25 mph becoming light southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 34. Calm wind.

TRONA (INDIAN WELLS) (CAZ298):
THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Max Temperature…..54-59. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..33-43 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….South 3-11 mph in the early morning increasing to 9-21 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Good. Mixing height…….2900 ft AGL.
Transport Winds…..Southwest around 5 mph in the morning increasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

.THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Cloudy then becoming partly cloudy. Rain likely in the evening. Slight chance of rain and snow after midnight. Snow level 4000 feet.
Min Temperature…..29-34. 24 HR Trend……Down 1-3 degrees.
Max Humidity……..68-78 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 5-11 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Southwest 11-23 mph in the early evening becoming west 7-19 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….30 percent.

.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..48-53. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-9 degrees.
Min Humidity……..30-40 percent. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 3-8 mph in the early morning shifting to the northeast 3-6 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Fair. Mixing height…….3600 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Northeast around 5 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
TODAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….63-68. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….19-29 percent. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….South wind up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 35 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 25 to 35 mph increasing to 35 to 45 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..6.

.TONIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated rain.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….34-39. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….77-82 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 20 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Southwest wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….West 45 to 55 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.

.FRIDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….57-62. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….24-32 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Northwest wind around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 30 to 40 mph becoming west 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.

*BAKER:
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 66. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
A 20 percent chance of rain. Increasing clouds, with a low around 36. South wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Northwest wind 3 to 7 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Light north wind.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS (CAZ226):
TODAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny then becoming partly cloudy. Snow and rain developing late in the afternoon.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….54-59. * 7000 feet…….42-47. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….19-29 percent. * 7000 feet…….24-34 percent. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….South winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph.
* Upper slopes….Windy. Southwest winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts to around 60 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 20 to 30 mph increasing to 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….30 percent increasing to 60 percent in the afternoon.
* LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.

.TONIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Mostly cloudy. Snow and rain in the evening tapering off to isolated snow after midnight.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….22-27. * 7000 feet…….2-7. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 9 degrees.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….62-67 percent. * 7000 feet….68-73 percent. * 24 hr trend…On average up 12 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….West winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph decreasing to 25 mph after midnight.
* Upper slopes….Windy. West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 55 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….West 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….100 percent in the Sierra. 80 percent in the Owens Valley. Decreasing to 5 percent after midnight.
* LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.

.FRIDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….48-53. * 7000 feet…….37-42. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….22-32 percent. * 7000 feet…28-38 percent. * 24 hr trend…On average up 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* Upper slopes….Northwest winds around 10 mph with gusts to around 30 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….West 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ299):
.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Max Temperature…..53-58. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..42-52 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 6-16 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….South 3-11 mph in the early morning increasing to southwest 6-18 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Good. Mixing height…….3500 ft AGL. Transport Winds…..Southwest around 5 mph in the morning increasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

.THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Cloudy then becoming partly cloudy. Rain likely in the evening, then slight chance of rain after midnight.
Min Temperature…..31-36. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Max Humidity……..78-88 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 8-18 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….West 9-21 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….30 percent.

.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Sunny.
Max Temperature…..48-53. 24 HR Trend……Down 2-8 degrees.
Min Humidity……..40-50 percent. 24 HR Trend……Down 5-11 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northwest 3-9 mph in the early morning shifting to the northeast 4-8 mph by afternoon.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Good. Mixing height…….4000 ft AGL.
Transport Winds…..Northwest around 10 mph in the morning shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain….0 percent.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
TODAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy…becoming partly cloudy.
Max temperature…..55 to 62. 24 HR TREND……Down 6 degrees.
Min humidity……..40 to 50 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 25 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 2 to 5 mph becoming southwest 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……3 percent. LAL……………..1.

.TONIGHT… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Min temperature…..41 to 46. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Max humidity……..90 to 100 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds south 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……53 percent. LAL……………..1.

.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy…becoming mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..Around 63. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Min humidity……..35 to 45 percent. 24 HR TREND……Down 10 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 1 to 3 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*DEVORE:
Thursday
A slight chance of showers between 10am and 4pm, then rain after 4pm. Patchy fog before 10am. High near 57. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 45. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

*CHINO HILLS:
Thursday
A slight chance of showers after 10am. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday Night
Rain. Low around 44. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph after midnight.

*COLTON:
Thursday
A slight chance of showers between 10am and 4pm, then rain after 4pm. Patchy fog before 10am. High near 61. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Rain. Low around 44. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255):
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from January 16, 06:00 PM PST until January 17, 04:00 AM PST

Wind Advisory in effect from January 16, 01:00 PM PST until January 17, 04:00 AM PST
.TODAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy.
Max temperature…..40 to 50 above 6000 feet to 50 to 60 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 4 degrees.
Min humidity…10 to 15 percent on desert slopes to 15 to 25 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND…Down 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds south 12 to 22 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds southwest 16 to 26 mph. Gusts to 35 mph…becoming 50 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……2 percent. LAL……………..1.

.TONIGHT… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening, then chance of snow and rain after midnight.
Min temperature…..24 to 32 above 6000 feet to 30 to 37 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 3 degrees.
Max humidity…75 to 85 percent on desert slopes to 90 to 100 percent on coastal slopes. 24 HR TREND..Up 55 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES………..Winds west 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 50 mph.
RIDGETOP………Winds west 26 to 36 mph with gusts to 70 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……43 percent. LAL……………..1.

.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy…becoming mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..39 to 48 above 6000 feet to 46 to 56 below 6000 feet. 24 HR TREND……Down 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..20 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 20 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..
SLOPES….Winds west 6 to 13 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming north 6 to 8 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
RIDGETOP………Winds west 13 to 23 mph with gusts to 45 mph becoming northwest 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

*LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from January 16, 06:00 PM PST until January 17, 04:00 AM PST
Wind Advisory in effect from January 16, 01:00 PM PST until January 17, 04:00 AM PST
Thursday
Rain and snow showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Patchy fog after 10am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Thursday Night
Rain and snow likely before 10pm, then snow. Patchy fog. Low around 29. Breezy, with a south wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight.

*BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from January 16, 06:00 PM PST until January 17, 04:00 AM PST
Wind Advisory in effect from January 16, 01:00 PM PST until January 17, 04:00 AM PST
Thursday
Patchy fog after 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Thursday Night
Snow likely. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Windy, with a southwest wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. West wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the evening.

BANNING PASS (CAZ265):
Wind Advisory in effect from January 16, 01:00 PM PST until January 17, 04:00 AM PST
TODAY… Sky/weather………Mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..65 to 70. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Min humidity……..25 to 30 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 2 to 5 mph becoming southeast 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

.TONIGHT… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain after midnight.
Min temperature…..43 to 49. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Max humidity……..75 to 85 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 35 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 8 to 18 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……6 percent. LAL……………..1.

.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy…becoming mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..64 to 69. 24 HR TREND……Down 1 degree.
Min humidity……..25 to 35 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds northwest 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming east 6 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ230):
TODAY… * Sky/weather…………………Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..54-66. * 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..25-36 pct. * 24 hr trend………………Little RH change.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 25 to 35 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………6 high potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

.TONIGHT… * Sky/weather…………………Mostly clear. Chance of rain
after midnight. * Min Temperature……………..35-42. * 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Max Humidity………………..76-92 pct. * 24 hr trend………………32 pct wetter.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..West 10 to 20 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 45 to 55 mph in the evening becoming west and becoming 55 to 65 mph after midnight.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.

.FRIDAY… * Sky/weather…………………Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature……………..49-61. * 24 hr trend………………5 degrees cooler.
* Min Humidity………………..31-43 pct. * 24 hr trend………………8 pct wetter.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Northwest 35 to 45 mph in the morning becoming west 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip…………….0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
TODAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….66-71. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….19-28 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming south 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 25 to 35 mph increasing to 35 to 45 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….3100 ft agl. * Transport winds…..Light winds becoming south around 10 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation………Fair.

.TONIGHT…* Sky/Weather….Partly cloudy. Isolated rain showers after midnight, mainly from the Overton Arm to the east.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….39-44. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….73-78 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 16 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….South wind 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 45 to 55 mph decreasing to 40 to 50 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….5 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.

.FRIDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….61-66. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 5 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….22-32 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 3 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming north 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 25 to 35 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….5500 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..Light winds becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. * Ventilation………Good.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER (NVZ465):
TODAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: * 4000 feet…….59-64. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: * 4000 feet…….21-29 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming south 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 30 to 40 mph increasing to 40 to 50 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….2500 ft agl. * Transport winds…..Light winds. * Ventilation………Marginal.

.TONIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers and snow showers.
* Min temperature: * 4000 feet…….32-37. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: * 4000 feet…….76-81 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 16 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Southwest 50 to 60 mph becoming west and decreasing to 35 to 45 mph after midnight.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….5 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..5.

.FRIDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly sunny.
* Max temperature: * 4000 feet…….53-58. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 6 degrees.
* Min humidity: * 4000 feet…….20-30 percent. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….North winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Northwest 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..4.
* Mixing height…….5100 ft agl. * Transport winds…..Light winds. * Ventilation………Fair.

*La Jolla CA
Thursday
A slight chance of showers between 11am and 5pm, then a chance of rain after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 57. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Rain likely, mainly between 11pm and 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday
A slight chance of rain before 11am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 59. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

*Poway CA
Thursday
A slight chance of showers between 10am and 4pm, then a chance of rain after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 61. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Rain likely, mainly between 10pm and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday
A slight chance of rain before 10am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.

*CEDAR CITY Ut.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Thursday through Tuesday

The next storm system will impact the state Thursday night into Friday. Strong gusty southerly winds across the mountains and in western Utah on Thursday will precede the cold front which will bring widespread snow to the area Thursday night into Friday. The snow will have the potential to impact the Friday morning commute.

Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 52. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
A chance of snow showers between 11pm and 2am, then snow after 2am. Areas of blowing snow after 2am. Low around 28. Breezy, with a south wind 17 to 22 mph increasing to 23 to 28 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Friday
Snow before 8am, then a chance of snow showers between 8am and 11am. Areas of blowing snow before 8am. High near 39. Southwest wind 9 to 18 mph becoming west northwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. North northeast wind 9 to 14 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.

*************************** L.A COUNTY ********************************
STORM SYSTEM WITH MODERATE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ON THURSDAY
LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ548):
.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..54-62. 24 hr trend……Down 6.
Min humidity……..60-80 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 20.
20-foot winds…….Southeast 6-12 mph becoming south 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..3000 ft asl. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……10 percent.

.THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Rain.
Min temperature…..38-48. Max humidity……..80-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….South 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph early becoming west 6-12 mph late.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……90 percent.

.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy then becoming mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..58-66.
Min humidity……..35-55 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ254):
.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..48-54 low elevations to 41-46 higher elevations and coastal slopes. 24 hr trend……Down 9.
Min humidity……..55-75 percent except 15-25 percent higher peaks. Occurring in the morning. 24 hr trend……Up 21.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…South 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….Southwest 15-25 mph with gust to 35 mph becoming 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..3000 ft asl. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……10 percent.

.THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow.
Min temperature…..34-41 low elevations to 25-32 colder valleys and peaks.
Max humidity……..80-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…South 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in the evening becoming west 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….Southwest 20-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……90 percent.

.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy then becoming mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..50-58 low elevations to 41-48 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..30-50 percent except 20-30 percent higher peaks and warmer valleys.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…Northwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon.
Ridges/upr slopes….Northwest 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph becoming north 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy.
Max temperature…..52-60. 24 hr trend……Little change.
Min humidity……..25-45 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 7.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None. LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.

.THURSDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Rain in the evening, then chance of rain and snow showers.
Min temperature…..30-36.
Max humidity……..80-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….Southwest 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph in the evening becoming west 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Isolated gusts to 60 mph near Lake Palmdale.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……80 percent.

.FRIDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy then becoming mostly sunny.
Max temperature…..44-54.
Min humidity……..25-35 percent.
20-foot winds…….West 8-15 mph with local gusts to 25 mph becoming northeast 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……0 percent.
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THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
1993: A very wet series of storms that began on 1/6 and ended on 1/19 produced 20 to 50 inches of precipitation in the mountains and up to 12 inches at lower elevations over a two week period. It was one of the longest periods of consecutive days of rain on record (14) and measurable rain fell nearly every day from 1/2 to 1/19. Flooding and flash flooding, mud slides, etc., resulted. On this day and on 1/17, 11.62 inches of rain fell at De Luz within 48 hours. From 1/15 through 1/17, heavy flooding occurred on the Santa Margarita and San Luis Rey Rivers. Highway 76 was washed out near I-15. The airports at Camp Pendleton and Oceanside sustained flood damage. In Tijuana, homes and streets were flooded along the Tijuana River. Five died and 139 people were caught in floodwaters, 600 were evacuated.
1990: A storm that started on this day and ended on 1/17 brought snow flurries within the San Diego city limits, but none was officially recorded at Lindbergh Field in San Diego. 14 inches fell at Mt. Laguna and ten to 16 inches fell in the mountains.

1987: A very cold air mass remained over the region from this day to 1/18. It was 10° at Mt. Laguna, 17° at Bonsall, 22° at Valley Center, 24° in Poway, 26° in El Cajon, 31° in Chula Vista and 36° at San Diego. Substantial avocado crop loss was estimated in the millions of dollars. On 1/17 the temperature fell to 24° in Fallbrook and 28° in Del Mar. Two homeless died of hypothermia.

1978: A Pacific storm brought heavy rains. Flooding killed two people and damaged roads, car lots and hotels in Mission Valley. De Luz became isolated. A mobile home park in Chula Vista was evacuated by motorboat.

1973: Heavy rain that began on this day ended on 1/18. Local amounts up to three inches fell on this day and an additional three inches fell on 1/18. Local flooding, mud slides, and power outages resulted.

1966: Strong Santa Ana winds surfaced over the coast and valleys. The winds destroyed several pleasure boats, damaged construction sites and the local avocado/citrus crop, and led to the closure of several highways. One man was killed when struck by a falling tree.

1961: High surf pounding the coast combined with very high tides to damage homes, roadways, and commercial property along the coast. Damages were concentrated in the communities of Ventura and Surfside.

1952: A series of storms brought heavy rain and mountain snow to the region starting on 1/13 and ending on 1/18. 5.52 inches fell in San Bernardino over the six days. Flooding was reported in Upland and Ontario. Heavy snow hit the San Bernardino Mountains with 40 inches in Lake Arrowhead (with a snow depth of 46 inches), and 37 inches in Big Bear Lake. All mountain roads were blocked and closed because of snow slides.

1949: It was 0° in Victorville, the second lowest temperature on record. The lowest temperature on record occurred the next day: -1° on 1/17. A few days earlier on 1/12/1949, it was 2°, the third lowest temperature on record.

1943: It was 84° in Victorville, the highest temperature on record for January.

1916: Widespread heavy rains hit Southern California starting on 1/14 and ending on 1/21. 8.5 inches fell during this period in San Bernardino. 16.71 inches fell in 24 hours at Squirrel Inn (near Lake Arrowhead) on this day and on 1/17, a record 24 hour rainfall for California until 1943. More than nine inches fell in two storms in the Coachella Valley. Previous storms had deposited deep snow in the mountains, adding to the runoff. Widespread flooding resulted and at least 22 died. Roofs in Chula Vista, poultry farm in Vista, boats in Coronado and Newport were damaged. Most cities were completely inundated. Pine trees from Palomar Mountain floated down the San Luis Rey River through Oceanside. The cities of Indio, Coachella and Mecca were underwater. Ontario and Redlands were isolated and roads, railroads and bridges were washed out.
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TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2020. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

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CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0825 Hrs. TEMP: 390 RH: 69% WIND: CALM
3.21” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH: 0.00” YTD S/F: 4.50” /
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FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )
Fifty-six wildland fire personnel are assigned to support large fires in New South Wales, Australia.
One hundred five wildland fire personnel are assigned to support large fires in Victoria, Australia
As wildfires continue to burn in Australia, the United States is sending additional U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and U.S. Forest Service (USFS) wildfire personnel to assist with ongoing wildfire suppression efforts in Australia.
Based on requests from the Australian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council, the U.S. has intermittently deployed more than 159 wildland USFS and DOI fire personnel throughout December and early January. The Council has also requested another group of personnel and the DOI and USFS are currently working to send those individuals as soon as possible. The U.S. firefighters are filling critical wildfire and aviation management roles in New South Wales and Victoria.
CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)

Southern California Area (PL 1 )
No Reportable Incidents

Northern California Area (PL 1 )
No Reportable Incidents

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