WEATHER 12/5/18

DAILY FIRE WEATHER & FIRE INFO

To: ALL UNITS From: EMAIL: pdupree@bdcecs.org
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Date: 12/5/18

SKYWARN: NORMAL
NETS ON WED NIGHT @1900 HEAPS PK./WX
SKYWARN NET TUESDAY @ 1900 HRS TABLE Mt.
BRIEFS TABLE MT. ON SUN @ 1800 HRS

DAYS NO R.F. @ STA.:06

National Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

Southern California Area
Preparedness Level: (PL 2 )

Northern California Area
Preparedness Level (PL 1 )

SYNOP:
A slow moving low pressure system will bring cooling with periods of wetting precipitation through early Friday. Then dry with a warming trend through the weekend with locally gusty northeast
winds near the coastal slopes of the mountains at times. For early next week, a trough of low pressure from the northwest will bring a cooling trend for Monday and Tuesday.

NWS LAS VEGAS SYNOP– (NORTH & EAST OF COUNTY)
Rain and snow showers are expected in the eastern Sierra and Owens Valley today with showers also working their way across San Bernardino County. Additional shower activity will move across
much of the area tonight and Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will bring drier conditions over the weekend.

FORECAST DETAILS
Southeastern California, Southern Nevada & Northwestern Arizona
Precipitation Chances
Slowly push west-to -east through Thursday.
Highest chances of precipitation exist this evening and Thursday for southeastern California, southern portions of Clark County & Mohave County.

Chances will linger Friday in Mohave County then diminish Friday night.

Total Rain Accumulation Moderate Confidence
Southeast California & Northwest Arizona: One-quarter to one-half inch with localized higher amounts in higher terrain.
South-Central Nevada: Around a tenth of an inch or less.

Total Snow Accumula_on Moderate Confidence
Sierra: 7-12″ above 6000 􀅌 with localized higher amounts near the crest.

Spring Mtns.: 3″-6″ above 6000 feet. Less than an inch below 6000 feet.

SPECIAL NOTES:
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA
MONTHLY/SEASONAL OUTLOOK
VALID FOR: DECEMBER 2018 – MARCH 2019

SUMMARY:
Slightly above normal temperatures this winter.

• Near normal number of offshore wind events expected through December.

• Near normal precipitation expected in December, but rain/snow possibly
decreasing in January.

• Large fire potential trending back to near normal early in December.

November 2018 will long be remembered for the deadly,catastrophic wildfires which impacted both Northern and Southern California. Gusty north and northeast winds developed on the 8th across the entire state which lead to eruption of the deadliest and most costly wildfire in California history – the Camp Fire. On that same day, the Woolsey Fire broke out which rapidly tore through nearly 100,000 acres in and around the Santa Monica Mountains, forcing nearly 300,000 people to evacuate. Wind speeds over Southern California on the 8th, while quite gusty, were not as strong overall as during the wind events of October or early July. There were some gusts approaching 60 mph, but most areas in the Santa Monica Mountains saw sustained wind speeds in the 20-40 mph range during the peak of the offshore wind event.
However, minimum relative humidity readings were very low for several days with most locations seeing minimums in the 3-8% range. There was also little, if any, RH recovery at night which allowed for ideal drying conditions of all fuel types.
Even before the onset of the offshore winds, dead fuel moisture readings were close to record low readings. The streak of dry, windy weather further dried fuels causing fuel moisture to drop to the lowest levels recorded in 30-40 years of record keeping. Therefore, the dryness of the fuels played perhaps an even bigger role than the offshore winds in generating the extreme fire behavior seen during the Woolsey Fire.

FUELS AND DROUGHT OUTLOOK
The widespread rain event of November 28th has altered the fuel landscape significantly in both the
short and long term. For 6 of the past 8 winters, fuels have been far drier than normal at the start of
December, at least over Southern California. But this year, the combination of wet weather and short
daylight hours should result in an efficient uptake of subsoil moisture by live vegetation. There will likely
be a vast greenup of seasonal grasses over the next few weeks while native brush begins to show some
growth.
Dead fuels will likely remain too wet to allow for
ignition through at least the first half of the month. No periods of significant drying is expected anytime
soon, so these fuels will not support large fire growth until a prolonged period of warm, dry weather occurs.
Large fire potential will therefore fall to near normal over the next month and fire activity should remain at
seasonally low levels (near zero) through at least January. A change to warmer and drier weather,
should it occur, in the late winter into spring time period may lead to an earlier start to next year’s “fire
season.” But until then, initial attack and resource demand should remain at seasonally low levels in
December– in stark contrast to several of the last few years.

At the current time, much of the area remains in a D1 to D3 drought (the map on the left was produced prior
to the storm of the 28th). Wet weather will likely go far to reducing the areas of extreme drought, but a
D1 or perhaps a D2 drought may continue to occur over portions of the district the rest of the winter.
Snowpack this winter may be a bit lower than normal this year which may lead to lower reservoir storage
heading into spring. But compared to last year, both the fire and hydrological situation in California is
much improved.

DAILY FUELS/FIRE POTENTIAL:
N/A

SANTA ANA WILDFIRE THREAT INDEX: TODAY: GREY-NO RATING

NO RATING: Sundowner winds are either not expected, or will not contribute to
significant fire activity.

MARGINAL: Upon ignition, fires may grow rapidly.

MODERATE: Upon ignition, fires will grow rapidly and will be difficult to control.

HIGH: Upon ignition, fires will grow very rapidly, will burn intensely, and will be very difficult to control

EXTREME: Upon ignition, fires will have extreme growth, will burn very intensely, and will be uncontrollable.

Zones NOV.29 NOV. 30 DEC.1 DEC. 2 DEC. 3 DEC. 4
Zone 1:
LA-Ventura NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 2:
Orange-Inland Empire NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 3:
San Diego NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE
Zone 4:
Santa Barbara NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE NO RATE

———————————————————–
APPLE VALLEY / HESPERIA-VICTOR VALLEY (CAZ260):
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain.
Max temperature…..50 to 55. 24 HR TREND……Down 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..30 to 40 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 30 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southeast 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……34 percent. LAL……………..1.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Min temperature…..37 to 42. 24 HR TREND……Up 3 degrees.
Max humidity……..75 to 85 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 25 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……44 percent. LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers likely.
Max temperature…..48 to 54. 24 HR TREND……Down 3 degrees.
Min humidity……..50 to 60 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 20 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……57 percent. LAL……………..1.

WRIGHTWOOD:
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PMPST THURSDAY
Wednesday
Snow likely before 10am, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday
Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all rain after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Thursday Night
Rain showers likely before 10pm, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

BIG PINES / WEST WRIGHTWOOD AREA
Wednesday
Snow likely before 10am, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 42. East southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south southwest in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers. Low around 30. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday
Rain showers before 10am, then rain and snow showers. High near 42. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Thursday Night
Rain and snow showers likely before 10pm, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. East northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

PHELAN:
Wednesday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. South wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 37. South wind 10 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Thursday
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 46. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Showers likely, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 37. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

TRONA:
Wednesday
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Wednesday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. North northeast wind 3 to 5 mph.
Thursday
A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Light north northwest wind.

BARSTOW / DAGGETT / BAKER / FT. IRWIN (CAZ228):
TODAY… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers through the day.
* Max temperature:
* Valley floor….56-61. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 4 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….20-30 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 8 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming southeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….5 percent increasing to 15 percent in the afternoon. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..3.

.TONIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….34-39. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….75-80 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 36 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Northeast wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….35 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..2.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….53-58. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 3 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….53-63 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 33 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Northeast wind up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….35 percent increasing to 60 percent in the afternoon. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..3.

BAKER:
Wednesday
A 30 percent chance of showers after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Light east northeast wind.
Thursday
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. North wind 5 to 7 mph.
Thursday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Light northwest wind.

SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY / EAST SIERRA FOOTHILLS:
TODAY… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and snow showers.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….49-54. * 7000 feet…….35-40. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….36-46 percent. * 7000 feet…….60-70 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 17 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
* Upper slopes….South winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….20 percent increasing to 30 percent in the afternoon. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..3.

.TONIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and snow showers in the evening, then numerous showers and snow showers likely after midnight.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….27-32. * 7000 feet…….7-12. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….85-90 percent. *7000 feet…….90-95 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 14 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* Upper slopes….Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….40 percent increasing to 60 percent after midnight. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..3.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy. Snow showers likely in the morning. Numerous rain showers through the day. Scattered snow showers in the afternoon.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….47-52. * 7000 feet…….33-38. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: Valley floor….53-63 percent. * 7000 feet…….75-85 percent. 24 hr trend…..On average up 16 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* Upper slopes….Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….55 percent increasing to 65 percent in the afternoon.
* LAL……………..1. * Haines Index……..3.

INLAND EMPIRE (CAZ248):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..55 to 61. 24 HR TREND……Down 11 degrees.
Min humidity……..35 to 45 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 35 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southeast 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……66 percent. LAL……………..1.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers likely.
Min temperature…..45 to 51. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Max humidity……..85 to 95 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 40 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……69 percent. LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..55 to 62. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Min humidity……..60 to 70 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 20 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……73 percent. LAL……………..1.

DEVORE:
Wednesday
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers. Low around 48. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light north. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday
Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 57. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Showers likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

CHINO HILLS:
Wednesday
Rain. High near 58. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers. Low around 50. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday
Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 60. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Showers, mainly before 10pm. Low around 49. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible

COLTON:
Wednesday
Rain likely, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers. Low around 51. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday
Showers. High near 61. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Showers likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

SAN BERNARDINO N.F. (CAZ255/CAZ256):
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PMPST THURSDAY

.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..55 to 61. 24 HR TREND……Down 11 degrees.
Min humidity……..35 to 45 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 35 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds southeast 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……66 percent. LAL……………..1.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers likely.
Min temperature…..45 to 51. 24 HR TREND……Little change.
Max humidity……..85 to 95 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 40 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……69 percent. LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..55 to 62. 24 HR TREND……Up 1 degree.
Min humidity……..60 to 70 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 20 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds east 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……73 percent. LAL……………..1.

LAKE ARROWHEAD SCHOOL- AREA:
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PMPST THURSDAY
Wednesday
Rain likely, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers. Low around 36. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday
Showers. High near 43. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Showers likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

BIG BEAR SCHOOL AREA:
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PMPST THURSDAY
Wednesday
Snow likely before 4pm, then rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Rain showers likely before 10pm, then snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Thursday
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Thursday Night
Snow showers likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

BANNING PASS:
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Partly cloudy…becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Max temperature…..63 to 68. 24 HR TREND……Down 2 degrees.
Min humidity……..20 to 25 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 5 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 2 to 4 mph becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……22 percent. LAL……………..1.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers.
Min temperature…..46 to 51. 24 HR TREND……Up 2 degrees.
Max humidity……..60 to 70 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 30 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Winds west 6 to 8 mph in the evening becoming variable 2 to 5 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……32 percent. LAL……………..1.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Chance of showers.
Max temperature…..57 to 62. 24 HR TREND……Down 4 degrees.
Min humidity……..55 to 65 percent. 24 HR TREND……Up 40 percent.
WIND (20 FT)……..Variable 1 to 3 mph.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……41 percent. LAL……………..1.

JOSHUA TREE AREA (CAZ261):
TODAY… * Sky/weather…………………Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and snow showers in the morning becoming chance of showers in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature……………..50-61. * 24 hr trend………………Little change.
* Min Humidity………………..21-29 pct. * 24 hr trend………………4 pct wetter.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 25 to 35 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….30 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….0 percent. * LAL………………………..1.
* Haines High Level Index………4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

.TONIGHT… * Sky/weather…………………Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers.
* Min Temperature……………..36-43. * 24 hr trend………………4 degrees warmer.
* Max Humidity………………..82-92 pct. * 24 hr trend………………46 pct wetter.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………Southwest 15 to 25 mph.
* Chance of Precip…………….50 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….20 percent. * LAL………………………..1.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/weather…………………Mostly cloudy. Showers likely.
* Max Temperature……………..45-54. * 24 hr trend………………6 degrees cooler.
* Min Humidity………………..68-79 pct. * 24 hr trend………………48 pct wetter.
* Winds – 20 foot…Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 15 mph.
* Winds…10000 FT MSL…………South 10 to 20 mph in the morning becoming 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip…………….70 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)…………….70 percent. * LAL………………………1.
* Haines High Level Index………2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.

NEEDLES, RIVER BAT. (CAZ229):
TODAY… * Sky/Weather………Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….60-65. * 24 hr trend…..On average down 2 degrees.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….19-27 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 4 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..5.
* Mixing height…….4000 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..North 10 to 15 knots in the morning becoming light.
* Ventilation………Fair.

.TONIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers.
* Min temperature: * Valley floor….37-42. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: * Valley floor….57-62 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 17 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….5 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..2.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers.
* Max temperature: * Valley floor….59-64. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: * Valley floor….39-49 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 21 percent.
* Wind (Slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Valley floor….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….5 percent increasing to 50 percent in the afternoon. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..3.
* Mixing height…….4100 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Marginal.

STATELINE – CLARK COUNTY BORDER:
TODAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly cloudy.
* Max temperature: * 4000 feet…….53-58. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: * 4000 feet…….22-32 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 7 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….0 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..2.
* Mixing height…….3600 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Marginal.

.TONIGHT… * Sky/Weather………Mostly cloudy with isolated showers through the night. Isolated snow showers after midnight.
* Min temperature: * 4000 feet…….29-34. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Max humidity: * 4000 feet…….74-79 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 24 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….5 percent. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..2.

.THURSDAY… * Sky/Weather………Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers in the morning. Scattered rain showers through the day.
* Max temperature: * 4000 feet…….52-57. * 24 hr trend…..Little change.
* Min humidity: * 4000 feet…….45-55 percent. * 24 hr trend…..On average up 23 percent.
* Wind (slope/valley=20 ft, 10 min avg):
* Slope/valley….Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph.
* 10000 ft msl….Light and variable.
* CWR (>= 0.10 in)….15 percent increasing to 35 percent in the afternoon. * LAL……………..1.
* Haines Index……..3.
* Mixing height…….3900 ft agl.
* Transport winds…..Light winds.
* Ventilation………Marginal.

*************************** OUT OF COUNTY *******************
GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY…

…EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

LOS ANGELS CO. SAN GABRIEL VALLEY (CAZ247/CAZ249):
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Rain.
Max temperature…..58-62. 24 hr trend……Down 7.
Min humidity……..40-55 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 32.
20-foot winds…….East 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Isolated gusts to 35 mph in the hills.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……70 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers.
Min temperature…..48-54.
Max humidity……..75-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….East 6-12 mph. Isolated gusts to 20 mph in the hills.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……80 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers.
Max temperature…..60-66.
Min humidity……..55-65 percent.
20-foot winds…….East 6-12 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……80 percent.

LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY:
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Rain likely.
Max temperature…..55-62. 24 hr trend……Down 8.
Min humidity……..45-55 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 34.
20-foot winds…….Northeast to east 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……70 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers.
Min temperature…..48-53. Max humidity……..60-90 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast to east 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……80 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers.
Max temperature…..58-64.
Min humidity……..50-60 percent.
20-foot winds…….North to northeast 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……80 percent.

SANTA CLARITA VALLEY:
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Rain.
Max temperature…..52-57. 24 hr trend……Down 7.
Min humidity……..40-50 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 29.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……40 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers.
Min temperature…..45-51.
Max humidity……..60-70 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph after midnight.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……70 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers.
Max temperature…..55-60.
Min humidity……..45-55 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……80 percent.

SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA:
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Rain.
Max temperature…..55-61. 24 hr trend……Down 4.
Min humidity……..45-60 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 32.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…East 8-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….Southeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……70 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers.
Min temperature…..48-57.
Max humidity……..60-75 percent except 75-85 percent colder valleys.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…East 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph becoming southeast 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph after midnight.
Ridges/upr slopes….Southeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph becoming 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph after midnight.
LAL……………..1.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……80 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers.
Max temperature…..56-63.
Min humidity……..50-60 percent.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…East 6-12 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….Southeast 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……80 percent.

ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST (CAZ253):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Rain and higher elevation snow.
Max temperature…..48-55 low elevations to 40-46 higher elevations. 24 hr trend……Down 5.
Min humidity……..55-70 percent except 45-55 percent higher peaks and warmer valleys. 24 hr trend..Up 33.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…East 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….Southeast 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph becoming 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……60 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…
Sky/weather………Cloudy. Rain and snow showers.
Min temperature…..40-50 low elevations to 29-36 colder valleys
and peaks.
Max humidity……..70-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…East 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the
evening becoming 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….Southeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the
evening becoming 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
LAL……………..1.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……70 percent.

.THURSDAY…
Sky/weather………Cloudy. Rain and snow showers.
Max temperature…..49-57 low elevations to 40-47 higher elevations.
Min humidity……..55-70 percent.
20-foot winds…….
Valleys/lwr slopes…East 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Ridges/upr slopes….East 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
LAL……………..1.
CWR (>0.10 IN)……80 percent.

ANTELOPE VALLEY (CAZ259):
WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Mostly cloudy. Rain likely.
Max temperature…..45-53. 24 hr trend……Down 6.
Min humidity……..45-55 percent. 24 hr trend……Up 28.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Marine layer……..None.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……30 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers likely.
Min temperature…..35-42.
Max humidity……..80-100 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph early becoming 6-12 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……30 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers likely.
Max temperature…..48-54.
Min humidity……..55-65 percent.
20-foot winds…….Northeast 6-12 mph.
LAL……………..1. CWR (>0.10 IN)……60 percent.

KERN CO. DESERTS (CAZ298):
.WEDNESDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Max Temperature…..48-53. 24 HR Trend……Down 3-5 degrees.
Min Humidity……..33-43 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 8-18 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 7 mph.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Marginal.
Mixing height…….2400 ft AGL.
Transport Winds…..Southeast around 5 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….20 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Min Temperature…..37-42. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Max Humidity……..78-88 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 19-35 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 3-8 mph.
LAL……………..1. Chc Wetting Rain….20 percent.

.THURSDAY… Sky/weather………Cloudy. Chance of showers.
Max Temperature…..47-52. 24 HR Trend……Little change.
Min Humidity……..60-70 percent. 24 HR Trend……Up 17-33 percent.
20-Foot Winds…….Northeast 3-9 mph.
LAL……………..1.
Ventilation………Marginal.
Mixing height…….1800 ft AGL.
Transport Winds…..East 5 to 10 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain….40 percent.

La Jolla CA
Wednesday
Rain, mainly after 10am. High near 62. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers. Low around 55. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. High near 63. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Showers. Low around 56. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Poway CA
Wednesday
Rain, mainly after 10am. High near 63. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers. Low around 52. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. High near 64. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Showers, mainly before 10pm. Low around 49. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

CEDAR CITY Ut.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 40. South southeast wind around 7 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Southeast wind around 7 mph.
Thursday
A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. East northeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
Thursday Night
A chance of snow before 11pm, then a chance of snow showers after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 26. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

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THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY:
2011: The low in Riverside tumbled to 20°, breaking a monthly record low of 21° set a century earlier in 1911.

2007: Surf with highest sets to 18 feet struck the coast of San Diego County (10 feet in Orange County) on this day and on 12/6. Highway 101 in Cardiff was inundated with minor flooding. The Imperial Beach Pier sustained minor damage.

1998: A funnel cloud was observed two miles southwest of Imperial Beach.

1992: A big storm that started on 12/4 and ended on 12/7 brought rainfall from 0.5 inch at the coast to up to six inches of precipitation in the mountains. 1.65 inches fell in Coronado, 1.60 in Vista, 1.42 in Fallbrook, 1.32 in Escondido, and 1.15 in San Diego. Flooding in Tijuana killed four and left hundreds homeless. Six inches to two feet of snow fell in the mountains. Local flooding, mud slides, standing water, and road closures resulted.

1989: An afternoon high of 86° in Campo tied a record for the month previously set in 1950.

1987: A cold front crossing the Pacific Coast brought heavy rain on 12/4 and on this day. Mt. Wilson was drenched with 2.17 inches in six hours. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 55 mph at Newport Beach. Gale force winds battered the coast with speeds exceeding 40 mph, causing tree damage and power outages.

1966: Heavy rain drenched the region, even the mountains, from 12/2 to 12/7. Storm totals for the period: 27.79 inches in Lake Arrowhead (believed to be a 100 year rainfall), 23.73 inches in Palomar Mountain, 18.72 inches in Big Bear Lake, 17.85 inches in Idyllwild, 9.14 inches in San Bernardino, 7.63 inches in Redlands, 6.21 inches in Santa Ana, 5.19 inches in Riverside, 2.99 inches in San Diego, 2.73 inches in Palm Springs, but only 0.66 inches in Victorville and 0.28 inches in Barstow! At least two homes were destroyed by floods and debris flows in Mill Creek Canyon. Debris flows and floods damaged homes and roads in Wrightwood and Lytle Creek. Homes and businesses were flooded in Redlands and Palm Springs. Many roads across the region were flooded and washed out. Scuba divers could not recover a Montclair man believed drowned in floodwaters. Strong storm winds caused power outages. On this day 6.66 inches of precipitation fell in Idyllwild, the greatest daily precipitation amount on record.

1959: Strong Santa Ana winds downed trees and utility lines, un-roofed multiple structures and destroyed several parked aircraft.

1958: It was 85° in Victorville, the highest temperature on record for December.
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TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC REPORT:
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

======================================================================
CURRENT WEATHER @ HESP. @ 0710 Hrs. TEMP: 350 RH: 60% WIND: SW 4 G 11
0.75” RF @ HESP. STA.SINCE OCT. 1st/20 Yr Avg: 7.12” : MONTH:0.00” YTD S/F: 0.00” /
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FIRES: UPDATED

National Preparedness Level (PL 1)

CDF FIRES TO DATE (STATE LANDS SRA)

Southern California Area (PL 2 )
No Reportable Incidents

Northern California Area (PL 1 )
No Reportable Incidents

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